One Knoxville v Spokane Velocity prediction · USL League One

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

One Knoxville 0–2 Spokane Velocity ONE KNOXVILLE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said One Knoxville win~~51%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.926

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.891

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said One Knoxville win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: One Knoxville was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
22′S. John-Brown scores for Spokane Velocity on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–26–53
42′We said One Knoxville at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–60
45′S. John-Brown scores for Spokane Velocity on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–27–61
55′We said One Knoxville at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
63′62′ and it is 0–2: N. Brett on the scoresheet for Spokane Velocity. 0–2 · 1–5–94
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 9% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' One Knoxville · On: E. Conway · Off: N. Rosamilia
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' One Knoxville · On: A. Caputo · Off: J. J. Murphy
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 9% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 9% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 9% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 9% now
75′62′ and it is 0–2: N. Brett on the scoresheet for Spokane Velocity. 0–2 · 0–2–98
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 9% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' One Knoxville win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Spokane Velocity · On: L. Gil · Off: N. Vinyals
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' T. Baker · One Knoxville
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Spokane Velocity · On: M. Alexandre · Off: S. John-Brown
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Spokane Velocity · On: C. Fernandez · Off: A. Lewis
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' L. Gil · Spokane Velocity
90′⚽ GOAL · 18' One Knoxville 0–2 Spokane Velocity · S. John-Brown (assist L. Opara)
90′🟨 YELLOW · 25' C. Miller · Spokane Velocity
90′🟨 YELLOW · 29' S. Zarokostas · One Knoxville
90′🟨 YELLOW · 45' A. Lewis · Spokane Velocity
90′SUBSTITUTION · 46' One Knoxville · On: K. Linhares · Off: S. Zarokostas
90′🟨 YELLOW · 48' J. J. Murphy · One Knoxville
90′SUBSTITUTION · 61' One Knoxville · On: B. Diene · Off: M. Goling
90′SUBSTITUTION · 61' One Knoxville · On: J. Brown · Off: C. Tiao
90′⚽ GOAL · 62' One Knoxville 0–2 Spokane Velocity · N. Brett (assist A. Lewis)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 70' One Knoxville · On: E. Conway · Off: N. Rosamilia
90′SUBSTITUTION · 70' One Knoxville · On: A. Caputo · Off: J. J. Murphy
90′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Spokane Velocity · On: L. Gil · Off: N. Vinyals
90′🟨 YELLOW · 81' T. Baker · One Knoxville
90′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Spokane Velocity · On: M. Alexandre · Off: S. John-Brown
90′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Spokane Velocity · On: C. Fernandez · Off: A. Lewis
FTFULL TIME One Knoxville 0–2 Spokane Velocity
FTOne Knoxville 0–2 Spokane Velocity · One Knoxville win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

One Knoxville win51%

Draw26%

Spokane Velocity win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueRegal Stadium

Line-ups

One Knoxville

Spokane Velocity

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

One Knoxville

Spokane Velocity

4Days since last match7

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	One Knoxville	30	+15	51
6	Spokane Velocity	27	+5	47

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

One Knoxville

Formation not confirmed

25 J. Garibay

22 W. Perkins

4 J. Skelton

3 F. McRobb

2 C. Tiao

89 T. Baker

8 J. J. Murphy

21 S. Zarokostas

17 M. Goling

77 N. Rosamilia

9 D. Krioutchenkov

Coach · Ian Fuller

Substitutes

32 · J. Burke

13 · Bull

26 · J. Brown

6 · A. Caputo

27 · E. Cook

11 · K. Linhares

7 · B. Diene

19 · E. Conway

Spokane Velocity

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Lewis

13 L. Opara

12 C. Miller

3 N. Spielman

33 M. Mensah

34 A. Elmasnaouy

11 S. John-Brown

77 A. Lewis

8 N. Vinyals

18 D. Waldeck

9 N. Brett

Coach · Leigh Veidman

Substitutes

23 · C. Merancio

4 · S. Fitch

20 · I. Covi

10 · L. Gil

7 · J. Gallardo

6 · C. Fernandez

17 · M. Alexandre

Our number · one knoxville winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

51% The market50%

Us51%

~~Market~~50%

We make One Knoxville a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · one knoxville win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
One Knoxville win	51%	50%	+1
Draw	26%	26%	0
Spokane Velocity win	23%	24%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	53%	−9
Both teams to score	47%	55%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	33%	−9
One Knoxville or draw	77%	76%	+1
One Knoxville clean sheet	40%	–	–
Spokane Velocity clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 7.8 3.7 1 12.9 12.3 5.6 2 10.0 9.1 4.2 3 5.1 4.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+One Knoxville down, Spokane Velocity across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,145 USL League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 250 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

One Knoxville at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Spokane Velocity away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for One Knoxville, 0.92 for Spokane Velocity. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–4 ONE · ONE 2–0 SPO · ONE 1–0 SPO · SPO 2–2 ONE

Form · last six in USL League One

ONE KNOXVILLE

DWLDLW0–0 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–0

SPOKANE VELOCITY

DLDWWD1–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	30	+28	63
2	Union Omaha	30	+21	61
3	Forward Madison	30	+22	52
4	Boise	30	+7	52
5	One Knoxville	30	+15	51
6	Spokane Velocity	27	+5	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	30	+9	45
9	Naples	29	−10	37
10	Westchester SC	30	+3	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	−3	36
12	Corpus Christi	29	−10	36
13	Alta	29	−7	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	−11	31
15	NY Cosmos	29	−23	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	−22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	30	−31	23