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NY Cosmos v Spokane Velocity

NY Cosmos

3–3Full time

Spokane Velocity

USL League One · THU 22 OCT · Hinchliffe Stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 03:00

NY Cosmos 3–3 Spokane Velocity SPOKANE VELOCITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spokane Velocity win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.844

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.808

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spokane Velocity win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Spokane Velocity was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
1′KICK-OFF NY Cosmos v Spokane Velocity
26′C. Koffi scores for NY Cosmos on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–22–15
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' NY Cosmos 1–0 Spokane Velocity · C. Koffi
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Spokane Velocity win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' NY Cosmos win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Spokane Velocity win 37%)
27′We said Spokane Velocity at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 64–22–14
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' D. Materazzi · NY Cosmos
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' L. Jawneh · NY Cosmos
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Spokane Velocity win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′HALF-TIME NY Cosmos 1–0 Spokane Velocity
46′SECOND HALF NY Cosmos 1–0 Spokane Velocity
48′We said Spokane Velocity at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' D. Chan · NY Cosmos
58′57′: N. Brett on the scoresheet for Spokane Velocity, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 26–46–28
58′We said Spokane Velocity at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 26–46–28
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' NY Cosmos 1–1 Spokane Velocity · N. Brett (penalty)
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Spokane Velocity win: 40% at kick-off, 28% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was NY Cosmos win 71%)
58′🟨 YELLOW · 56' O. Ramos · NY Cosmos
60′NY Cosmos ahead on 59′ through L. Jawneh. 2–1. 2–1 · 73–21–6
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' NY Cosmos 2–1 Spokane Velocity · L. Jawneh
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Spokane Velocity win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' NY Cosmos win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 47%)
61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 73–21–6
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Spokane Velocity · On: L. Gil · Off: N. Vinyals
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Spokane Velocity · On: M. Alexandre · Off: D. Waldeck
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' NY Cosmos · On: M. Chilaka · Off: D. Materazzi
66′We said Spokane Velocity at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
69′We said Spokane Velocity at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 2–2 · 21–57–22
69′A. Lewis scores for Spokane Velocity on 69′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 21–57–22
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' NY Cosmos 2–2 Spokane Velocity
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Spokane Velocity win: 40% at kick-off, 22% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was NY Cosmos win 78%)
70′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 20–58–22
74′We said Spokane Velocity at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 17–64–19
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' N. Spielman · Spokane Velocity
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Spokane Velocity · On: S. Fitch · Off: L. Opara
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' NY Cosmos · On: N. Mendonca · Off: L. Jawneh
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Spokane Velocity · On: J. Gallardo · Off: N. Brett
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Spokane Velocity win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
84′84′: O. Ramos on the scoresheet for NY Cosmos, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 91–8–0
84′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 91–8–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' NY Cosmos 3–2 Spokane Velocity · O. Ramos
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Spokane Velocity win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' NY Cosmos win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 83%)
86′83′: O. Ramos on the scoresheet for NY Cosmos, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 93–7–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' J. Gallardo · Spokane Velocity
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Spokane Velocity · On: B. Meredith · Off: A. Elmasnaouy
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' NY Cosmos · On: N. Zielonka · Off: C. Koffi
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' NY Cosmos · On: W. Noecker · Off: S. Acosta
100′Spokane Velocity level it on 90′ through S. John-Brown. 3–3. 3–3 · 2–97–2
100′⚽ GOAL · 90+10' NY Cosmos 3–3 Spokane Velocity · S. John-Brown
100′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+10' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was NY Cosmos win 98%)
FTFULL TIME NY Cosmos 3–3 Spokane Velocity
FTNY Cosmos 3–3 Spokane Velocity · Spokane Velocity win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spokane Velocity are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NY Cosmos 35%, draw 25%, Spokane Velocity 40%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on NY Cosmos v Spokane VelocityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

NY Cosmos win35%

Draw25%

Spokane Velocity win40%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHinchliffe Stadium

Line-ups

NY Cosmos

Spokane Velocity

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NY Cosmos

Spokane Velocity

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 18 Oct · USL League One

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Spokane Velocity	30	+7	53
17	NY Cosmos	30	−26	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NY Cosmos

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Chan

5 N. Cabrera

23 D. Materazzi

25 J. Chavez

3 S. Acosta

7 F. Ljucovic

15 O. Ramos

19 L. Jawneh

8 A. Spengler

18 C. Koffi

13 S. Guenzatti

Coach · Davide Corti

Substitutes

26 · J. Garcia

4 · M. Chilaka

17 · D. Galazzini

24 · W. Noecker

33 · D. Sidoel

20 · N. Mendonca

11 · N. Zielonka

Spokane Velocity

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Lewis

13 L. Opara

12 C. Miller

3 N. Spielman

33 M. Mensah

77 A. Lewis

34 A. Elmasnaouy

11 S. John-Brown

8 N. Vinyals

18 D. Waldeck

9 N. Brett

Coach · Leigh Veidman

Substitutes

23 · C. Merancio

5 · G. Margvelashvili

4 · S. Fitch

10 · L. Gil

7 · J. Gallardo

42 · B. Meredith

17 · M. Alexandre

Our number · spokane velocity winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 18 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Spokane Velocity a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NY Cosmos v Spokane Velocity~~1.38 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 25 v 53~~17 v 6

~~The market · Spokane Velocity win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spokane Velocity win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NY Cosmos win	35%	32%	+3
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Spokane Velocity win	40%	42%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
NY Cosmos or draw	60%	58%	+2
NY Cosmos clean sheet	23%	–	–
Spokane Velocity clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.9 8.3 6.3 3.1 1 7.7 11.7 8.6 4.3 2 5.4 7.9 5.9 3.0 3 2.5 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NY Cosmos down, Spokane Velocity across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 USL League One matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.7% of games this season, across 262 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NY Cosmos at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Spokane Velocity away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for NY Cosmos, 1.49 for Spokane Velocity. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SPO 3–1 NYC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 12 Sept

NY COSMOS

LLWLLL1–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–3

SPOKANE VELOCITY

WWDWLW1–0 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	31	+31	66
2	Union Omaha	31	+20	61
3	Forward Madison	31	+24	55
4	Boise	31	+8	55
5	One Knoxville	32	+16	54
6	Spokane Velocity	30	+7	53
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	+6	46
8	Fort Wayne	31	+7	45
9	Naples	30	−9	40
10	Westchester SC	31	+4	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	30	−1	39
12	Corpus Christi	31	−15	36
13	Alta	31	−8	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	−13	31
15	Greenville Triumph	31	−24	27
16	Richmond Kickers	31	−27	26
17	NY Cosmos	30	−26	25