NY Cosmos v One Knoxville prediction · USL League One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

NY Cosmos 0–3 One Knoxville ONE KNOXVILLE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said One Knoxville win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.485

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.510

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said One Knoxville win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: One Knoxville was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
1′KICK-OFF NY Cosmos v One Knoxville
37′D. Krioutchenkov scores for One Knoxville on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–19–73
37′We published One Knoxville at 43%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 8–19–73
37′⚽ GOAL · 6' NY Cosmos 0–1 One Knoxville · D. Krioutchenkov (assist N. Rosamilia)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 23' J. Milovanov · NY Cosmos
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' One Knoxville win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–73
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' N. Mendonca · NY Cosmos
45′HALF-TIME NY Cosmos 0–1 One Knoxville
46′SECOND HALF NY Cosmos 0–1 One Knoxville
48′We published One Knoxville at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
64′We published One Knoxville at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' S. Zarokostas · One Knoxville
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' One Knoxville · On: K. Linhares · Off: S. Zarokostas
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' N. Rosamilia · One Knoxville
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' One Knoxville win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' One Knoxville · On: E. Conway · Off: N. Rosamilia
74′73′: E. Conway on the scoresheet for One Knoxville, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' NY Cosmos · On: S. Acosta · Off: M. Chilaka
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' NY Cosmos 0–2 One Knoxville · E. Conway
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' One Knoxville win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
75′We published One Knoxville at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' J. Chavez · NY Cosmos
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' One Knoxville · On: Bull · Off: C. Tiao
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' One Knoxville · On: B. Diene · Off: D. Krioutchenkov
82′We published One Knoxville at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' E. Conway · One Knoxville
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' NY Cosmos · On: N. Zielonka · Off: L. Jawneh
90′A red card for NY Cosmos on 89′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' J. Milovanov · NY Cosmos
90′🟥 RED CARD · 89' J. Milovanov · NY Cosmos
94′One Knoxville ahead on 90′ through B. Diene. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' NY Cosmos 0–3 One Knoxville · B. Diene
FTFULL TIME NY Cosmos 0–3 One Knoxville
FTNY Cosmos 0–3 One Knoxville · One Knoxville win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

One Knoxville are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NY Cosmos 31%, draw 26%, One Knoxville 43%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on NY Cosmos v One KnoxvilleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

NY Cosmos win31%

Draw26%

One Knoxville win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHinchliffe Stadium

Line-ups

NY Cosmos

One Knoxville

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NY Cosmos

One Knoxville

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · USL League One

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	One Knoxville	31	+13	51
16	NY Cosmos	29	−23	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NY Cosmos

Formation not confirmed

26 J. Garcia

28 J. Milovanov

24 W. Noecker

25 J. Chavez

4 M. Chilaka

20 N. Mendonca

15 O. Ramos

19 L. Jawneh

8 A. Spengler

7 F. Ljucovic

13 S. Guenzatti

Coach · Davide Corti

Substitutes

1 · D. Chan

23 · D. Materazzi

17 · D. Galazzini

2 · M. Morabito

3 · S. Acosta

33 · D. Sidoel

5 · N. Cabrera

11 · N. Zielonka

One Knoxville

Formation not confirmed

25 J. Garibay

22 W. Perkins

4 J. Skelton

3 F. McRobb

2 C. Tiao

8 J. J. Murphy

6 A. Caputo

21 S. Zarokostas

17 M. Goling

77 N. Rosamilia

9 D. Krioutchenkov

Coach · Ian Fuller

Substitutes

32 · J. Burke

13 · Bull

99 · B. Uderitz

70 · M. Diop

11 · K. Linhares

7 · B. Diene

19 · E. Conway

Our number · one knoxville winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make One Knoxville a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NY Cosmos v One Knoxville~~1.18 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 51~~16 v 5

~~The market · One Knoxville win~~42% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · One Knoxville win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NY Cosmos win	31%	32%	−1
Draw	26%	26%	0
One Knoxville win	43%	42%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	58%	−9
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	38%	−11
NY Cosmos or draw	57%	58%	−1
NY Cosmos clean sheet	24%	–	–
One Knoxville clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.5 10.2 7.6 3.7 1 8.3 12.4 8.8 4.3 2 5.0 7.2 5.2 2.6 3 2.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NY Cosmos down, One Knoxville across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,149 USL League One matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 254 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NY Cosmos at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). One Knoxville away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for NY Cosmos, 1.46 for One Knoxville. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ONE 3–1 NYC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 5 Sept

NY COSMOS

WLLWLL4–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–3

ONE KNOXVILLE

WLDLWL3–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	30	+28	63
2	Union Omaha	30	+21	61
3	Forward Madison	30	+22	52
4	Boise	30	+7	52
5	One Knoxville	31	+13	51
6	Spokane Velocity	29	+6	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	30	+9	45
9	Naples	30	−9	40
10	Westchester SC	30	+3	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	−3	36
12	Corpus Christi	30	−11	36
13	Alta	30	−7	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	−11	31
15	Greenville Triumph	30	−21	27
16	NY Cosmos	29	−23	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	−31	23