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NY Cosmos v Chattanooga Red Wolves

NY Cosmos
1–1Full time
Chattanooga Red Wolves

USL League One · SAT 24 OCT · Hinchliffe Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:31
NY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Chattanooga Red Wolves win39%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.864
The market’s Brier score0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Chattanooga Red Wolves win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Chattanooga Red Wolves 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 37–24–39
  3. 1′KICK-OFF NY Cosmos v Chattanooga Red Wolves
  4. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' O. Ramos · NY Cosmos
  5. 31′S. Guenzatti scores for NY Cosmos on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–22–14
  6. 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' NY Cosmos 1–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves · S. Guenzatti
  7. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Chattanooga Red Wolves win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
  8. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' NY Cosmos win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Chattanooga Red Wolves win 36%)
  9. 33′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 65–22–13
  10. 34′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 65–22–13
  11. 38′37′: A. Kelly-Rosales on the scoresheet for Chattanooga Red Wolves, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–33–34
  12. 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' NY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves · A. Kelly-Rosales
  13. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Chattanooga Red Wolves win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME NY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves
  15. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was NY Cosmos win 66%)
  16. 46′SECOND HALF NY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves
  17. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Chattanooga Red Wolves win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  18. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' NY Cosmos · On: D. Galazzini · Off: L. Jawneh
  19. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Chattanooga Red Wolves · On: M. Acosta · Off: J. Vaughan
  20. 62′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 26–48–27
  21. 68′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 22–54–23
  22. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' E. Kinzner · Chattanooga Red Wolves
  23. 74′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–62–19
  24. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Chattanooga Red Wolves win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  25. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Chattanooga Red Wolves · On: M. Bentley · Off: O. Tapia
  26. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Chattanooga Red Wolves · On: J. Ayimbila · Off: J. Ramos
  27. 84′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
  28. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' NY Cosmos · On: N. Cabrera · Off: J. Milovanov
  29. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Chattanooga Red Wolves win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  30. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' M. Acosta · Chattanooga Red Wolves
  31. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Chattanooga Red Wolves · On: G. Mercer · Off: P. Hernandez
  32. 93′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 2–95–3
  33. FTFULL TIME NY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves
  34. FTNY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves · Chattanooga Red Wolves win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Chattanooga Red Wolves just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: NY Cosmos 37%, draw 24%, Chattanooga Red Wolves 39%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on NY Cosmos v Chattanooga Red WolvesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

NY Cosmos win37%
Draw24%
Chattanooga Red Wolves win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHinchliffe Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NY Cosmos

Chattanooga Red Wolves

3Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 18 Oct · USL League One

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Chattanooga Red Wolves31+646
16NY Cosmos31−2626

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chattanooga red wolves winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
39% The market38%
Us39%
Market38%

We make Chattanooga Red Wolves a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · NY Cosmos v Chattanooga Red Wolves1.51 – 1.57
Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 19 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 26 v 4616 v 7
The market · Chattanooga Red Wolves win38% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 20:36
Our probability · Chattanooga Red Wolves win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
NY Cosmos win37%36%+1
Draw24%26%−2
Chattanooga Red Wolves win39%38%+1
Over 2.5 goals59%58%+1
Both teams to score61%61%0
Over 1.5 goals81%78%+3
Over 3.5 goals37%37%0
NY Cosmos or draw61%62%−1
NY Cosmos clean sheet21%––
Chattanooga Red Wolves clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%
0123450 4.9 7.1 5.7 3.0 1 6.9 11.0 8.4 4.4 2 5.3 8.1 6.3 3.3 3 2.7 4.1 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+NY Cosmos down, Chattanooga Red Wolves across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021
Goals a meeting6.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsCHA 3–3 NYC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 19 Sept

NY COSMOS

LWLLLD1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 3–3

CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Charlotte Independence31+3166
2Union Omaha31+2061
3Forward Madison31+2455
4Boise31+855
5Spokane Velocity31+754
6One Knoxville32+1654
7Chattanooga Red Wolves31+646
8Fort Wayne31+745
9Naples31−843
10Westchester SC31+439
11Sarasota Paradise31−239
12Corpus Christi31−1536
13Alta31−833
14Portland Hearts of Pine31−1331
15Greenville Triumph31−2427
16NY Cosmos31−2626
17Richmond Kickers31−2726

The competition's standings before kick-off.