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NY Cosmos v Chattanooga Red Wolves
NY Cosmos
Chattanooga Red WolvesUSL League One · SAT 24 OCT · Hinchliffe Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Chattanooga Red Wolves win at 39%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Chattanooga Red Wolves 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 37–24–39
- 1′KICK-OFF NY Cosmos v Chattanooga Red Wolves
- 22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' O. Ramos · NY Cosmos
- 31′S. Guenzatti scores for NY Cosmos on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–22–14
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' NY Cosmos 1–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves · S. Guenzatti
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Chattanooga Red Wolves win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
- 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' NY Cosmos win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Chattanooga Red Wolves win 36%)
- 33′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 65–22–13
- 34′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 65–22–13
- 38′37′: A. Kelly-Rosales on the scoresheet for Chattanooga Red Wolves, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–33–34
- 38′⚽ GOAL · 37' NY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves · A. Kelly-Rosales
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Chattanooga Red Wolves win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
- 45′HALF-TIME NY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves
- 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was NY Cosmos win 66%)
- 46′SECOND HALF NY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Chattanooga Red Wolves win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' NY Cosmos · On: D. Galazzini · Off: L. Jawneh
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Chattanooga Red Wolves · On: M. Acosta · Off: J. Vaughan
- 62′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 26–48–27
- 68′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 22–54–23
- 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' E. Kinzner · Chattanooga Red Wolves
- 74′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–62–19
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Chattanooga Red Wolves win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Chattanooga Red Wolves · On: M. Bentley · Off: O. Tapia
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Chattanooga Red Wolves · On: J. Ayimbila · Off: J. Ramos
- 84′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' NY Cosmos · On: N. Cabrera · Off: J. Milovanov
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Chattanooga Red Wolves win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
- 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' M. Acosta · Chattanooga Red Wolves
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Chattanooga Red Wolves · On: G. Mercer · Off: P. Hernandez
- 93′We said Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 2–95–3
- FTFULL TIME NY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves
- FTNY Cosmos 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves · Chattanooga Red Wolves win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Chattanooga Red Wolves just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: NY Cosmos 37%, draw 24%, Chattanooga Red Wolves 39%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
NY Cosmos win37%
Chattanooga Red Wolves win39%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:00
RoundGroup stage
VenueHinchliffe Stadium
Match timeline
All events
NY CosmosMIN
Chattanooga Red WolvesEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
NY Cosmos
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Last match: 22 Oct · USL League One
Last match: 18 Oct · USL League One
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Chattanooga Red Wolves a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Cosmos win | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | −2 |
| Chattanooga Red Wolves win | 39% | 38% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 37% | 0 |
| NY Cosmos or draw | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| NY Cosmos clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
| Chattanooga Red Wolves clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 19 Sept
NY COSMOS
CHATTANOOGA RED WOLVES
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 31 | +31 | 66 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 31 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 31 | +24 | 55 |
| 4 | Boise | 31 | +8 | 55 |
| 5 | Spokane Velocity | 31 | +7 | 54 |
| 6 | One Knoxville | 32 | +16 | 54 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 31 | +6 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 31 | +7 | 45 |
| 9 | Naples | 31 | −8 | 43 |
| 10 | Westchester SC | 31 | +4 | 39 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 31 | −2 | 39 |
| 12 | Corpus Christi | 31 | −15 | 36 |
| 13 | Alta | 31 | −8 | 33 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 31 | −13 | 31 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph | 31 | −24 | 27 |
| 16 | NY Cosmos | 31 | −26 | 26 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 31 | −27 | 26 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Charlotte Independence
Union Omaha
Forward Madison
Boise
Spokane Velocity
One Knoxville
Fort Wayne
Naples
Westchester SC
Sarasota Paradise
Corpus Christi
Alta
Portland Hearts of Pine
Greenville Triumph
Richmond Kickers