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Greenville Triumph v Spokane Velocity

Greenville Triumph
4–3Full time
Spokane Velocity

USL League One · THU 15 OCT · Paladin Stadium

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 02:30
Greenville Triumph 4–3 Spokane Velocity SPOKANE VELOCITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Spokane Velocity win37%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.606
The market’s Brier score0.666

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Spokane Velocity win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Greenville Triumph 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–26–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Greenville Triumph v Spokane Velocity
  4. 5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Greenville Triumph 1–0 Spokane Velocity · I. Agyaakwah
  5. 7′4′ and it is 1–0: I. Agyaakwah on the scoresheet for Greenville Triumph. 1–0 · 63–21–16
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Spokane Velocity win: 37% at kick-off, 16% now
  7. 10′We said Greenville Triumph at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 1–0 · 64–21–15
  8. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Greenville Triumph 2–0 Spokane Velocity · N. Spielman
  9. 13′Greenville Triumph ahead on 10′ through I. Covi. 2–0. 2–0 · 85–10–5
  10. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Spokane Velocity win: 37% at kick-off, 5% now
  11. 16′We said Greenville Triumph at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
  12. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Greenville Triumph 2–1 Spokane Velocity · A. Elmasnaouy
  13. 32′A. Elmasnaouy scores for Spokane Velocity on 31′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 67–22–11
  14. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Spokane Velocity win: 37% at kick-off, 11% now
  15. 35′We said Greenville Triumph at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 2–1 · 67–22–11
  16. 38′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 68–22–10
  17. 45′We said Greenville Triumph at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 2–1 · 70–22–9
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Greenville Triumph 2–1 Spokane Velocity
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Greenville Triumph 2–1 Spokane Velocity
  20. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Spokane Velocity win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  21. 52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Greenville Triumph 3–1 Spokane Velocity · A. Patti
  22. 53′51′ and it is 3–1: A. Patti on the scoresheet for Greenville Triumph. 3–1 · 93–6–1
  23. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' T. Sims · Greenville Triumph
  24. 54′We said Greenville Triumph at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 3–1 · 93–5–1
  25. 55′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  26. 59′We said Greenville Triumph at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–5–1
  27. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Spokane Velocity · On: S. John-Brown · Off: J. Gallardo
  28. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Spokane Velocity · On: N. Brett · Off: N. Vinyals
  29. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Spokane Velocity · On: A. Lewis · Off: C. Fernandez
  30. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Spokane Velocity · On: C. Miller · Off: I. Covi
  31. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Spokane Velocity · On: C. Miller · Off: I. Covi
  32. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Spokane Velocity · On: A. Lewis · Off: C. Fernandez
  33. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Greenville Triumph · On: E. Lee · Off: T. Sims
  34. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Greenville Triumph · On: D. Benton · Off: B. Larsen
  35. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Greenville Triumph 3–2 Spokane Velocity · L. Gil
  36. 73′Spokane Velocity pull one back on 72′ through L. Gil. 3–2. 3–2 · 82–16–2
  37. 73′We said Greenville Triumph at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 3–2 · 82–16–2
  38. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Greenville Triumph · On: D. Boyce · Off: R. Robles
  39. 75′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 84–15–2
  40. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' C. Miller · Spokane Velocity
  41. 77′D. Boyce scores for Greenville Triumph on 76′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
  42. 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Greenville Triumph 4–2 Spokane Velocity · D. Boyce
  43. 78′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
  44. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Spokane Velocity · On: M. Mensah · Off: M. Alexandre
  45. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Spokane Velocity · On: M. Mensah · Off: M. Alexandre
  46. 83′We said Greenville Triumph at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  47. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Greenville Triumph · On: C. Evans · Off: C. Herrera
  48. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Greenville Triumph · On: E. White · Off: I. Agyaakwah
  49. 88′87′ and it is 4–3: A. Elmasnaouy on the scoresheet for Spokane Velocity. 4–3 · 95–5–0
  50. 88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Greenville Triumph 4–3 Spokane Velocity · A. Elmasnaouy
  51. 89′7 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 95–5–0
  52. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 97' A. Elmasnaouy · Spokane Velocity
  53. FTFULL TIME Greenville Triumph 4–3 Spokane Velocity
  54. FTGreenville Triumph 4–3 Spokane Velocity · Spokane Velocity win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Spokane Velocity just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Greenville Triumph 37%, draw 26%, Spokane Velocity 37%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Greenville Triumph v Spokane VelocityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

Greenville Triumph win37%
Draw26%
Spokane Velocity win37%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:00

VenuePaladin Stadium

Line-ups

Greenville Triumph

Spokane Velocity

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Greenville Triumph

Spokane Velocity

3Days since last match3
2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Spokane Velocity28750
16Greenville Triumph29-2224

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Greenville Triumph

Formation not confirmed

30 S. Torman

4 T. Sims

5 B. Fricke

15 A. Patti

27 M. Nour

8 C. Herrera

6 I. Agyaakwah

20 A. Villanueva

9 R. Robles

17 B. Larsen

19 A. Liadi

Coach · Joel Tyson

Substitutes

13 · A. Knight

12 · E. Lee

77 · D. Benton

18 · C. Evans

7 · D. Boyce

23 · E. White

25 · L. Castro

29 · B. Polo

Spokane Velocity

Formation not confirmed

23 C. Merancio

4 S. Fitch

20 I. Covi

3 N. Spielman

18 D. Waldeck

6 C. Fernandez

7 J. Gallardo

34 A. Elmasnaouy

8 N. Vinyals

17 M. Alexandre

10 L. Gil

Coach · Leigh Veidman

Substitutes

1 · S. Lewis

13 · L. Opara

33 · M. Mensah

12 · C. Miller

77 · A. Lewis

11 · S. John-Brown

9 · N. Brett

Our number · spokane velocity winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off
37% The market39%
Us37%
Market39%

We make Spokane Velocity a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Greenville Triumph v Spokane Velocity1.34 – 1.34
Last six in USL League OneW0 D1 L5 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 24 v 5016 v 6
The market · Spokane Velocity win39% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 9 OCT 07:2414 OCT 04:54
Our probability · spokane velocity win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Greenville Triumph win37%34%+3
Draw26%27%−1
Spokane Velocity win37%39%−2
Over 2.5 goals50%54%−4
Both teams to score54%58%−4
Over 1.5 goals75%75%0
Over 3.5 goals28%33%−5
Greenville Triumph or draw63%61%+2
Greenville Triumph clean sheet26%––
Spokane Velocity clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%
0123450 7.2 9.0 6.2 2.8 1 9.0 12.4 8.1 3.7 2 6.1 8.1 5.4 2.4 3 2.8 3.6 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Greenville Triumph down, Spokane Velocity across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting3.40
Over 2.54 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsSPO 2–1 GRE · SPO 0–1 GRE · GRE 0–4 SPO · SPO 2–3 GRE

Form · last six in USL League One

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH

LLLLLD1–3 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–2

SPOKANE VELOCITY

LDWWDW1–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Charlotte Independence302863
2Union Omaha302161
3Forward Madison302252
4Boise30752
5One Knoxville311351
6Spokane Velocity28750
7Chattanooga Red Wolves30746
8Fort Wayne30945
9Naples30-940
10Westchester SC30336
11Sarasota Paradise29-336
12Corpus Christi30-1136
13Alta30-733
14Portland Hearts of Pine30-1131
15NY Cosmos29-2325
16Greenville Triumph29-2224
17Richmond Kickers30-3123

The competition's standings.