Greenville Triumph v Charlotte Independence prediction · USL League One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30

Greenville Triumph 0–3 Charlotte Independence CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Charlotte Independence win~~43%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.490

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.588

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Charlotte Independence win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Charlotte Independence 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
1′KICK-OFF Greenville Triumph v Charlotte Independence
25′🟨 YELLOW · 22' P. Saydee · Charlotte Independence
27′Charlotte Independence ahead on 27′ through S. Marou. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–19–68
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Greenville Triumph 0–1 Charlotte Independence · S. Marou
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Charlotte Independence win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
28′We said Charlotte Independence at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 13–19–68
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–20–68
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' B. Fricke · Greenville Triumph
42′We said Charlotte Independence at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
45′HALF-TIME Greenville Triumph 0–1 Charlotte Independence
46′🟨 YELLOW · 43' R. Robles · Greenville Triumph
49′SECOND HALF Greenville Triumph 0–1 Charlotte Independence
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Charlotte Independence win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
62′We said Charlotte Independence at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
67′🟨 YELLOW · 63' S. Coulibaly · Charlotte Independence
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Charlotte Independence · On: J. Amaya · Off: J. Fuchs
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Charlotte Independence · On: Stefano Pinho · Off: P. Saydee
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Greenville Triumph · On: D. Benton · Off: T. Sims
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Greenville Triumph · On: L. Castro · Off: R. Robles
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Greenville Triumph · On: E. Lee · Off: I. Agyaakwah
72′We said Charlotte Independence at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
77′S. Marou scores for Charlotte Independence on 75′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
77′⚽ GOAL · 75' Greenville Triumph 0–2 Charlotte Independence · S. Marou
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Charlotte Independence win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
78′We said Charlotte Independence at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–1–98
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' J. Bakero · Charlotte Independence
84′We said Charlotte Independence at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
88′84′: S. Marou on the scoresheet for Charlotte Independence, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 84' Greenville Triumph 0–3 Charlotte Independence · S. Marou (assist J. Bakero)
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Charlotte Independence · On: F. Ngah · Off: S. Marou
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Charlotte Independence · On: M. Guffroy · Off: J. Bakero
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Charlotte Independence · On: K. Riascos · Off: C. Jaime
FTFULL TIME Greenville Triumph 0–3 Charlotte Independence
FTGreenville Triumph 0–3 Charlotte Independence · Charlotte Independence win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Charlotte Independence are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Greenville Triumph 34%, draw 23%, Charlotte Independence 43%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Greenville Triumph v Charlotte IndependenceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Greenville Triumph win34%

Draw23%

Charlotte Independence win43%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenuePaladin Stadium

Line-ups

Greenville Triumph

Charlotte Independence

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Greenville Triumph

Charlotte Independence

3Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 11 Oct · USL League One

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Greenville Triumph

Formation not confirmed

30 S. Torman

4 T. Sims

5 B. Fricke

15 A. Patti

27 M. Nour

8 C. Herrera

6 I. Agyaakwah

20 A. Villanueva

9 R. Robles

17 B. Larsen

19 A. Liadi

Coach · Joel Tyson

Substitutes

13 · A. Knight

12 · E. Lee

77 · D. Benton

18 · C. Evans

7 · D. Boyce

23 · E. White

25 · L. Castro

29 · B. Polo

Charlotte Independence

Formation not confirmed

28 M. Levy

17 C. Dimick

4 S. Coulibaly

5 J. Romero

3 J. Skinner

14 R. Manin

6 J. Fuchs

7 P. Saydee

8 C. Jaime

10 J. Bakero

26 S. Marou

Coach · Michael Jeffries

Substitutes

1 · G. Tasouris

2 · F. Ngah

22 · K. Riascos

16 · M. Lyons

24 · J. Amaya

11 · V. Ortiz

13 · M. Guffroy

29 · Stefano Pinho

Our number · charlotte independence winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:02 · locked at kick-off

43% The market38%

Us43%

~~Market~~38%

We make Charlotte Independence a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Greenville Triumph v Charlotte Independence~~1.60 – 1.82

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 27 v 63~~15 v 1

~~The market · Charlotte Independence win~~38% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Charlotte Independence win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Greenville Triumph win	34%	37%	−3
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Charlotte Independence win	43%	38%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	66%	64%	+2
Both teams to score	66%	69%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Greenville Triumph or draw	57%	62%	−5
Greenville Triumph clean sheet	17%	–	–
Charlotte Independence clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.6 5.9 5.4 3.3 1 5.2 9.6 8.5 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.5 6.8 4.1 3 2.3 4.0 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Greenville Triumph down, Charlotte Independence across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,149 USL League One matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 254 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Greenville Triumph at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Charlotte Independence away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Greenville Triumph, 1.82 for Charlotte Independence. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–0 GRE · CHA 1–0 GRE · CHA 4–5 GRE · CHA 1–0 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 12 Sept

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH

LLLLDW0–1 · 0–6 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 4–3

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE

WDWDWW5–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	30	+28	63
2	Union Omaha	30	+21	61
3	Forward Madison	30	+22	52
4	Boise	30	+7	52
5	One Knoxville	31	+13	51
6	Spokane Velocity	29	+6	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	30	+9	45
9	Naples	30	−9	40
10	Westchester SC	30	+3	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	−3	36
12	Corpus Christi	30	−11	36
13	Alta	30	−7	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	−11	31
15	Greenville Triumph	30	−21	27
16	NY Cosmos	29	−23	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	−31	23