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Forward Madison v Union Omaha

Forward Madison

0–0Full time

Union Omaha

USL League One · SAT 24 OCT · Breese Stevens Field

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Forward Madison 0–0 Union Omaha FORWARD MADISON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Forward Madison win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.804

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.812

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Forward Madison win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Forward Madison was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
1′KICK-OFF Forward Madison v Union Omaha
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' S. Guediri · Union Omaha
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' R. Torres · Forward Madison
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Forward Madison win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Forward Madison 0–0 Union Omaha
46′SECOND HALF Forward Madison 0–0 Union Omaha
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' T. Klein · Union Omaha
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Forward Madison win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' D. Gutierrez · Union Omaha
55′We said Forward Madison at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–47–25
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–47–25
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Union Omaha · On: S. Owusu · Off: B. Kallman
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Union Omaha · On: K. Tekiela · Off: S. Ors Navarro
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Union Omaha · On: A. Billhardt · Off: D. Gutierrez
64′We said Forward Madison at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Forward Madison · On: C. Ngoubou · Off: R. Carmichael
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Forward Madison · On: C. McCamy · Off: J. Shannon
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Forward Madison · On: B. Augee · Off: M. Segbers
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Forward Madison win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
72′We said Forward Madison at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Union Omaha · On: C. Lawrence · Off: Y. Boudadi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Forward Madison · On: S. Gyamfi · Off: H. Karamoko
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Forward Madison · On: J. Castro · Off: J. Bolma
78′We said Forward Madison at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Union Omaha · On: B. Knapp · Off: A. Gavilanes
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Forward Madison win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Forward Madison at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
90′We said Forward Madison at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Forward Madison 0–0 Union Omaha
FTForward Madison 0–0 Union Omaha · Forward Madison win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Forward Madison are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Forward Madison 40%, draw 27%, Union Omaha 34%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Forward Madison v Union OmahaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Forward Madison win40%

Draw27%

Union Omaha win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueBreese Stevens Field

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Forward Madison

Union Omaha

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 18 Oct · USL League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Union Omaha	31	+20	61
3	Forward Madison	31	+24	55

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · forward madison winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Forward Madison a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Forward Madison v Union Omaha~~1.34 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 55 v 61~~3 v 2

~~The market · Forward Madison win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Forward Madison win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Forward Madison win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Union Omaha win	34%	33%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	57%	−10
Both teams to score	51%	60%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	72%	77%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	37%	−12
Forward Madison or draw	66%	67%	−1
Forward Madison clean sheet	30%	–	–
Union Omaha clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.2 9.4 5.7 2.3 1 10.4 12.7 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.3 5.0 2.0 3 3.2 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Forward Madison down, Union Omaha across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,159 USL League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.0% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Forward Madison at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Union Omaha away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Forward Madison, 1.21 for Union Omaha. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FOR 4–3 UNI · UNI 1–0 FOR · UNI 4–0 FOR · FOR 0–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 13 Sept

FORWARD MADISON

LWLDLW0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 2–0

UNION OMAHA

WWWWLL2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	31	+31	66
2	Union Omaha	31	+20	61
3	Forward Madison	31	+24	55
4	Boise	31	+8	55
5	Spokane Velocity	31	+7	54
6	One Knoxville	32	+16	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	+6	46
8	Fort Wayne	31	+7	45
9	Naples	31	−8	43
10	Westchester SC	31	+4	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	31	−2	39
12	Corpus Christi	31	−15	36
13	Alta	31	−8	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	−13	31
15	Greenville Triumph	31	−24	27
16	NY Cosmos	31	−26	26
17	Richmond Kickers	31	−27	26