Forward Madison v Portland Hearts of Pine prediction · USL League One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Forward Madison 2–0 Portland Hearts of Pine FORWARD MADISON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Forward Madison win~~54%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.312

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.240

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Forward Madison win at 54%.
1′KICK-OFF Forward Madison v Portland Hearts of Pine
2′Much as we predicted: Forward Madison was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
6′5′: R. Carmichael on the scoresheet for Forward Madison, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Forward Madison 1–0 Portland Hearts of Pine · R. Carmichael
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Forward Madison win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
7′We published Forward Madison at 54%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' M. Poon-Angeron · Portland Hearts of Pine
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
40′Forward Madison ahead on 40′ through R. Carmichael. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' J. Drack · Portland Hearts of Pine
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Forward Madison 2–0 Portland Hearts of Pine · R. Carmichael (penalty)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Forward Madison win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
41′We published Forward Madison at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Forward Madison 2–0 Portland Hearts of Pine
46′SECOND HALF Forward Madison 2–0 Portland Hearts of Pine
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: S. Faye · Off: A. Camara
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' S. Faye · Portland Hearts of Pine
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: J. Kamara · Off: D. Gonzalez
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: W. Varela · Off: M. Poon-Angeron Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Forward Madison · On: S. Gyamfi · Off: H. Karamoko
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Forward Madison · On: B. Augee · Off: M. Segbers
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Forward Madison · On: C. Ngoubou · Off: R. Carmichael
73′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: W. Varela · Off: D. Barbosa
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Forward Madison · On: C. McCamy · Off: R. Torres
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Forward Madison · On: J. Castro · Off: J. Bolma
81′We published Forward Madison at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Portland Hearts of Pine · On: M. Lopez · Off: M. Poon-Angeron
FTFULL TIME Forward Madison 2–0 Portland Hearts of Pine
FTForward Madison 2–0 Portland Hearts of Pine · Forward Madison win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Forward Madison are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Forward Madison 54%, draw 23%, Portland Hearts of Pine 22%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Forward Madison v Portland Hearts of PineBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Forward Madison win54%

Draw23%

Portland Hearts of Pine win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 23:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueBreese Stevens Field

Line-ups

Forward Madison

Portland Hearts of Pine

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Forward Madison

Portland Hearts of Pine

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 10 Oct · USL League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Forward Madison	30	+22	52
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	−11	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Forward Madison

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Harms

20 K. Carmichael

5 J. Shannon

33 K. Toure

23 E. Munjoma

8 M. Segbers

12 R. Torres

6 G. Kanyane

9 R. Carmichael

21 H. Karamoko

7 J. Bolma

Coach · Matt Glaeser

Substitutes

19 · T. Manske

99 · K. Flores

4 · C. McCamy

13 · T. Humphrey

57 · B. Augee

16 · J. Castro

14 · S. Gyamfi

11 · C. Ngoubou

Portland Hearts of Pine

Formation not confirmed

23 K. Oladapo

6 M. Mohamed

66 K. Green

22 B. Evans

99 J. Drack

8 M. Poon-Angeron

18 D. Barbosa

98 M. Kidd

16 D. Gonzalez

24 Felipe

9 A. Camara

Coach · Bobby Murphy

Substitutes

1 · H. Morse

44 · S. Faye

25 · E. Espinosa

7 · W. Varela

5 · M. Lopez

4 · D. Letayf

11 · J. Kamara

Our number · forward madison winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:29 · locked at kick-off

54% The market60%

Us54%

~~Market~~60%

We make Forward Madison a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Forward Madison v Portland Hearts of Pine~~1.81 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 52 v 31~~3 v 14

~~The market · Forward Madison win~~60% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Forward Madison win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Forward Madison win	54%	60%	−6
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Portland Hearts of Pine win	22%	18%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	33%	41%	−8
Forward Madison or draw	78%	82%	−4
Forward Madison clean sheet	34%	–	–
Portland Hearts of Pine clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.9 5.9 3.3 1 10.0 10.9 5.8 2.1 2 9.1 9.7 5.2 3 5.5 5.9 3.1 4 2.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Forward Madison down, Portland Hearts of Pine across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,149 USL League One matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 254 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Forward Madison at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Portland Hearts of Pine away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Forward Madison, 1.07 for Portland Hearts of Pine. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~POR 1–2 FOR · POR 1–3 FOR · FOR 1–1 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 6 Sept

FORWARD MADISON

DLWLDL1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–3

PORTLAND HEARTS OF PINE

WWDLDL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	30	+28	63
2	Union Omaha	30	+21	61
3	Forward Madison	30	+22	52
4	Boise	30	+7	52
5	One Knoxville	31	+13	51
6	Spokane Velocity	29	+6	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	30	+9	45
9	Naples	30	−9	40
10	Westchester SC	30	+3	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	−3	36
12	Corpus Christi	30	−11	36
13	Alta	30	−7	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	−11	31
15	Greenville Triumph	30	−21	27
16	NY Cosmos	29	−23	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	−31	23