Fort Wayne v Boise prediction · USL League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fort WayneDrawBoise

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Fort Wayne 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fort Wayne are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fort Wayne 46%, draw 25%, Boise 29%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Fort Wayne v BoiseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Fort Wayne win46%

Draw25%

Boise win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueRuoff Mortgage Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fort Wayne

Boise

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · USL League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Boise	31	+8	55
8	Fort Wayne	31	+7	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fort wayne winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market37%

Us46%

~~Market~~37%

We make Fort Wayne a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fort Wayne v Boise~~1.62 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 17 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 45 v 55~~8 v 4

~~The market · Fort Wayne win~~37% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fort Wayne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fort Wayne win	46%	37%	+9
Draw	25%	25%	0
Boise win	29%	37%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%	−5
Both teams to score	57%	63%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	40%	−8
Fort Wayne or draw	71%	63%	+8
Fort Wayne clean sheet	29%	–	–
Boise clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.9 7.0 4.4 1 9.1 11.6 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 9.2 5.7 2.4 3 4.0 5.0 3.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fort Wayne down, Boise across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,159 USL League One matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.0% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fort Wayne at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Boise away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Fort Wayne, 1.25 for Boise. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BOI 1–3 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 17 Sept

FORT WAYNE

DDDWWL2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–3

BOISE

DDLWWW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	31	+31	66
2	Union Omaha	31	+20	61
3	Forward Madison	31	+24	55
4	Boise	31	+8	55
5	Spokane Velocity	31	+7	54
6	One Knoxville	32	+16	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	+6	46
8	Fort Wayne	31	+7	45
9	Naples	31	−8	43
10	Westchester SC	31	+4	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	31	−2	39
12	Corpus Christi	31	−15	36
13	Alta	31	−8	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	−13	31
15	Greenville Triumph	31	−24	27
16	NY Cosmos	31	−26	26
17	Richmond Kickers	31	−27	26