Home › Football › USL League One › Corpus Christi v Naples

Corpus Christi v Naples

Corpus Christi

0–1Full time

Naples

USL League One · SUN 11 OCT · Cabaniss Athletic Complex

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

Corpus Christi 0–1 Naples CORPUS CHRISTI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Corpus Christi win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.755

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Corpus Christi win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Corpus Christi 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Corpus Christi v Naples
3′Little has changed for our model: Corpus Christi 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Corpus Christi 0–1 Naples · T. Collins
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' C. Garcia · Naples
45′HALF-TIME Corpus Christi 0–1 Naples
46′SECOND HALF Corpus Christi 0–1 Naples
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Naples · On: A. Ferrin · Off: C. Garcia
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Corpus Christi · On: J. Keegan · Off: D. Bachstein
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' B. Bowen · Corpus Christi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Corpus Christi · On: I. Abeal · Off: P. Vasic
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Naples · On: H. Gay · Off: T. Collins
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Naples · On: N. Likulia · Off: G. Miglietti
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Corpus Christi · On: S. Gomez · Off: K. Barganski
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Corpus Christi · On: J. Parks · Off: T. Pondeca
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' S. Gomez · Corpus Christi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Naples · On: L. Mastrantonio · Off: O. Ciss
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Naples · On: W. Arevalo · Off: J. Cisneros
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Naples · On: W. Arevalo · Off: J. Cisneros
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' A. Ferrin · Naples
FTFULL TIME Corpus Christi 0–1 Naples
FTCorpus Christi 0–1 Naples · Corpus Christi win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Corpus Christi win43%

Draw27%

Naples win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 01:30

Venue · Cabaniss Athletic Complex

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Corpus Christi

Formation not confirmed

24 M. McCready

7 K. T. Thomas

4 J. Keaney

5 S. Roscoe

2 B. Bowen

6 P. Langlois

14 P. Vasic

26 A. Medina

27 T. Pondeca

19 K. Barganski

18 D. Bachstein

Coach · Eamon Zayed

Substitutes

28 · B. Hamid

22 · S. Gomez

15 · J. Parks

12 · J. Keegan

21 · I. Abeal

17 · M. Shalita

Naples

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Delgado

3 J. Cisneros

20 J. Yearwood

4 H. Uderitz

8 J. Osorio

21 M. Torrellas

6 O. Ciss

14 K. O'Connor

24 T. Collins

9 G. Miglietti

11 C. Garcia

Coach · Zak Gordon

Substitutes

17 · T. Halterman

5 · L. Mastrantonio

12 · H. Gay

10 · A. Ferrin

30 · I. Cerro

19 · W. Arevalo

16 · A. Bulai-Tudor

45 · N. Likulia

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Corpus Christi

Formation not confirmed

24 M. McCready

7 K. T. Thomas

4 J. Keaney

5 S. Roscoe

2 B. Bowen

6 P. Langlois

14 P. Vasic

26 A. Medina

27 T. Pondeca

19 K. Barganski

18 D. Bachstein

Coach · Eamon Zayed

Substitutes

28 · B. Hamid

22 · S. Gomez

15 · J. Parks

12 · J. Keegan

21 · I. Abeal

17 · M. Shalita

Naples

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Delgado

3 J. Cisneros

20 J. Yearwood

4 H. Uderitz

8 J. Osorio

21 M. Torrellas

6 O. Ciss

14 K. O'Connor

24 T. Collins

9 G. Miglietti

11 C. Garcia

Coach · Zak Gordon

Substitutes

17 · T. Halterman

5 · L. Mastrantonio

12 · H. Gay

10 · A. Ferrin

30 · I. Cerro

19 · W. Arevalo

16 · A. Bulai-Tudor

45 · N. Likulia

Our number · corpus christi winPublished 11 Oct 01:31

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Corpus Christi a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · corpus christi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Corpus Christi win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Naples win	30%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−7
Corpus Christi or draw	70%	70%	+1
Corpus Christi clean sheet	33%	–	–
Naples clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.5 8.6 5.0 1 10.9 12.8 7.0 2.6 2 7.9 8.7 4.9 3 3.7 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Corpus Christi down, Naples across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,140 USL League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 245 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Corpus Christi at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Naples away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Corpus Christi, 1.12 for Naples. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NAP 2–2 COR

Form · last six in USL League One

CORPUS CHRISTI

LLWWLL0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–3

NAPLES

LDDWWW0–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Omaha	29	+22	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	+25	60
3	Forward Madison	29	+23	52
4	One Knoxville	30	+15	51
5	Boise	29	+6	49
6	Spokane Velocity	27	+5	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	29	+8	42
9	Naples	29	−10	37
10	Corpus Christi	29	−10	36
11	Westchester SC	29	+2	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	−4	33
13	Alta	29	−7	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	−10	31
15	NY Cosmos	28	−20	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	−22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	−30	23