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Charlotte Independence v NY Cosmos

Charlotte Independence

3–0Full time

NY Cosmos

USL League One · SUN 11 OCT · American Legion Memorial Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:30

Charlotte Independence 3–0 NY Cosmos CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Charlotte Independence win~~64%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.194

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.217

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Charlotte Independence win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Charlotte Independence 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–18–18
2′Little has changed for our model: Charlotte Independence 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–18–18
17′Little has changed for our model: Charlotte Independence 64% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–21–18
18′Charlotte Independence ahead on 18′ through C. Jaime. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 61% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 61% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 61% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 61% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 61% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 61% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 61% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Charlotte Independence win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Charlotte Independence 2–0 NY Cosmos · J. Skinner
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Charlotte Independence 3–0 NY Cosmos · S. Marou
45′HALF-TIME Charlotte Independence 3–0 NY Cosmos
46′SECOND HALF Charlotte Independence 3–0 NY Cosmos
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' NY Cosmos · On: N. Cabrera · Off: O. Ramos
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' NY Cosmos · On: N. Mendonca · Off: A. Holt
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' NY Cosmos · On: D. Galazzini · Off: L. Jawneh
49′SECOND HALF Charlotte Independence 3–0 NY Cosmos
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Charlotte Independence · On: V. Ortiz · Off: C. Manzinga
60′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Charlotte Independence · On: V. Ortiz · Off: C. Manzinga
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' D. Materazzi · NY Cosmos
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Charlotte Independence · On: P. Saydee · Off: C. Jaime
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' NY Cosmos · On: J. Chavez · Off: S. Acosta
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' NY Cosmos · On: N. Zielonka · Off: S. Guenzatti
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Charlotte Independence · On: M. Guffroy · Off: J. Bakero
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Charlotte Independence · On: J. Amaya · Off: J. Fuchs
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Charlotte Independence · On: Stefano Pinho · Off: S. Marou
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' M. Levy · Charlotte Independence
FTFULL TIME Charlotte Independence 3–0 NY Cosmos
FTCharlotte Independence 3–0 NY Cosmos · Charlotte Independence win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Charlotte Independence win64%

Draw18%

NY Cosmos win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · American Legion Memorial Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Charlotte Independence

Formation not confirmed

28 M. Levy

17 C. Dimick

4 S. Coulibaly

5 J. Romero

3 J. Skinner

6 J. Fuchs

14 R. Manin

10 J. Bakero

8 C. Jaime

9 C. Manzinga

26 S. Marou

Coach · Michael Jeffries

Substitutes

1 · G. Tasouris

22 · K. Riascos

16 · M. Lyons

24 · J. Amaya

11 · V. Ortiz

13 · M. Guffroy

29 · Stefano Pinho

7 · P. Saydee

NY Cosmos

Formation not confirmed

26 J. Garcia

28 J. Milovanov

23 D. Materazzi

6 A. Holt

4 M. Chilaka

15 O. Ramos

7 F. Ljucovic

19 L. Jawneh

8 A. Spengler

3 S. Acosta

13 S. Guenzatti

Coach · Davide Corti

Substitutes

1 · D. Chan

17 · D. Galazzini

25 · J. Chavez

14 · A. Puentes

20 · N. Mendonca

5 · N. Cabrera

11 · N. Zielonka

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Charlotte Independence

Formation not confirmed

28 M. Levy

17 C. Dimick

4 S. Coulibaly

5 J. Romero

3 J. Skinner

6 J. Fuchs

14 R. Manin

10 J. Bakero

8 C. Jaime

9 C. Manzinga

26 S. Marou

Coach · Michael Jeffries

Substitutes

1 · G. Tasouris

22 · K. Riascos

16 · M. Lyons

24 · J. Amaya

11 · V. Ortiz

13 · M. Guffroy

29 · Stefano Pinho

7 · P. Saydee

NY Cosmos

Formation not confirmed

26 J. Garcia

28 J. Milovanov

23 D. Materazzi

6 A. Holt

4 M. Chilaka

15 O. Ramos

7 F. Ljucovic

19 L. Jawneh

8 A. Spengler

3 S. Acosta

13 S. Guenzatti

Coach · Davide Corti

Substitutes

1 · D. Chan

17 · D. Galazzini

25 · J. Chavez

14 · A. Puentes

20 · N. Mendonca

5 · N. Cabrera

11 · N. Zielonka

Our number · charlotte independence winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

64% The market62%

Us64%

~~Market~~62%

We make Charlotte Independence a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · charlotte independence win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Charlotte Independence win	64%	62%	+2
Draw	18%	20%	−1
NY Cosmos win	18%	18%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Both teams to score	65%	67%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	86%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Charlotte Independence or draw	82%	82%	+1
Charlotte Independence clean sheet	29%	–	–
NY Cosmos clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.6 2.8 1 5.7 7.5 4.6 2 7.3 9.0 5.7 2.4 3 6.0 7.5 4.7 4 3.8 4.7 2.9 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Charlotte Independence down, NY Cosmos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,140 USL League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 245 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Charlotte Independence at home: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). NY Cosmos away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.50 goals for Charlotte Independence, 1.26 for NY Cosmos. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NYC 3–2 CHA

Form · last six in USL League One

CHARLOTTE INDEPENDENCE

LWDWDW0–2 · 5–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

NY COSMOS

LWLLWL1–2 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union Omaha	29	+22	61
2	Charlotte Independence	29	+25	60
3	Forward Madison	29	+23	52
4	One Knoxville	30	+15	51
5	Boise	29	+6	49
6	Spokane Velocity	27	+5	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	29	+8	42
9	Naples	29	−10	37
10	Corpus Christi	29	−10	36
11	Westchester SC	29	+2	33
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	−4	33
13	Alta	29	−7	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	29	−10	31
15	NY Cosmos	28	−20	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	−22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	29	−30	23