Boise v Alta prediction · USL League One

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:31

Boise 2–1 Alta BOISE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boise win~~52%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.348

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.185

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boise win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Boise was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Boise v Alta
17′Boise ahead on 17′ through J. Barea. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Boise 1–0 Alta · J. Barea
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Boise win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
19′Boise ahead on 16′ through J. Barea. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
20′We published Boise at 52%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
28′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Miguel Ángel Pajaro Julio · Alta
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' D. Gasso · Boise
45′HALF-TIME Boise 1–0 Alta
46′SECOND HALF Boise 1–0 Alta
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Boise · On: M. Ndiaye · Off: D. Gasso
56′We published Boise at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' C. Bahena Jr · Alta
61′🟨 YELLOW · 58' D. Kostyshyn · Boise
61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' M. Ndiaye · Boise
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Boise win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
71′We published Boise at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
71′🟨 YELLOW · 62' B. Kleiban · Alta
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Boise · On: T. Amang · Off: D. Kostyshyn
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Alta · On: A. Aoumaich · Off: N. Relerford
74′J. Barea scores for Boise on 74′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Boise 2–0 Alta · J. Barea
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Boise win: 52% at kick-off, 99% now
75′We published Boise at 52%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' D. Smith · Alta
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Boise · On: O. Yehya · Off: J. Barea
81′78′: A. Aoumaich on the scoresheet for Alta, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 91–9–1
81′We published Boise at 52%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–9–1
81′⚽ GOAL · 78' Boise 2–1 Alta · A. Aoumaich
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Alta · On: S. Higareda · Off: R. Thomas
82′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 92–8–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Alta · On: M. Ibarra · Off: M. Pajaro
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Alta · On: M. Winum · Off: E. Ceja
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Alta · On: J. Desdunes · Off: E. Jahng
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' J. Kliewer · Boise
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' J. Crull · Boise
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' M. Ibarra · Alta
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' J. Desdunes · Alta
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' Boise · On: J. Hanson · Off: T. Moshobane
FTFULL TIME Boise 2–1 Alta
FTBoise 2–1 Alta · Boise win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boise are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boise 52%, draw 24%, Alta 24%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Boise v AltaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Boise win52%

Draw24%

Alta win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:00

RoundGroup stage

Line-ups

Boise

Alta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boise

Alta

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 11 Oct · USL League One

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Boise	30	+7	52
13	Alta	30	−7	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Boise

Formation not confirmed

18 J. Kliewer

15 J. Yaro

25 J. Dengler

16 J. Crull

2 J. Ricketts

10 D. Kostyshyn

66 P. Mayaka

8 D. Gasso

14 N. Moon

36 J. Barea

11 T. Moshobane

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · J. Mazzola

5 · M. Ndiaye

3 · K. Oyler

23 · O. Yehya

22 · T. Amang

9 · Luan Brito

17 · J. Hanson

Alta

Formation not confirmed

22 D. Smith

12 N. Relerford

44 K. Pehlivanov

4 M. Pajaro

16 E. Ceja

5 M. Alassane

99 C. Bahena Jr

21 J. Villalobos

23 R. Thomas

32 E. Jahng

19 C. Anderson

Coach · Brian Kleiban

Substitutes

30 · M. Gonzalez

15 · M. Winum

52 · S. Ramos

10 · M. Ibarra

7 · J. Desdunes

18 · A. Aoumaich

24 · S. Higareda

Our number · boise winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market65%

Us52%

~~Market~~65%

We make Boise a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boise v Alta~~1.75 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 52 v 33~~5 v 13

~~The market · Boise win~~65% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Boise win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boise win	52%	65%	−13
Draw	24%	20%	+4
Alta win	24%	15%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	55%	63%	−8
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	83%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	43%	−10
Boise or draw	76%	85%	−9
Boise clean sheet	33%	–	–
Alta clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.9 6.2 3.6 1 9.7 11.2 6.2 2.3 2 8.6 9.6 5.4 2.0 3 5.1 5.6 3.1 4 2.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boise down, Alta across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,150 USL League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 255 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boise at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Alta away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Boise, 1.12 for Alta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ALT 2–2 BOI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 28 Aug

BOISE

WDDLWW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

ALTA

LLLLLD0–5 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	30	+28	63
2	Union Omaha	30	+21	61
3	One Knoxville	32	+16	54
4	Forward Madison	30	+22	52
5	Boise	30	+7	52
6	Spokane Velocity	29	+6	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	30	+9	45
9	Naples	30	−9	40
10	Westchester SC	30	+3	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	−3	36
12	Corpus Christi	30	−11	36
13	Alta	30	−7	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	−11	31
15	Greenville Triumph	30	−21	27
16	NY Cosmos	30	−26	25
17	Richmond Kickers	30	−31	23