Alta v Greenville Triumph prediction · USL League One

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 06:00

Alta 2–2 Greenville Triumph ALTA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alta win~~49%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.869

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.843

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alta win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Alta was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–27
2′Much as we predicted: Alta was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–27
23′4′ and it is 0–1: A. Liadi on the scoresheet for Greenville Triumph. 0–1 · 20–25–55
25′4′ and it is 0–1: A. Liadi on the scoresheet for Greenville Triumph. 0–1 · 19–25–56
44′Greenville Triumph ahead on 36′ through A. Liadi. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–10–87
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Alta win: 49% at kick-off, 3% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Greenville Triumph win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Alta win 3%)
46′SECOND HALF Alta 1–2 Greenville Triumph
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Alta · On: O. Lay · Off: M. Winum
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Alta 2–2 Greenville Triumph · A. Aoumaich
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' R. Thomas · Alta
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Greenville Triumph · On: C. Evans · Off: I. Agyaakwah
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Greenville Triumph · On: D. Benton · Off: B. Larsen
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Alta · On: S. Higareda · Off: R. Thomas
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' E. Ceja · Alta
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' A. Liadi · Greenville Triumph
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Alta · On: N. Relerford · Off: E. Ceja
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Greenville Triumph · On: D. Boyce · Off: A. Villanueva
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Greenville Triumph · On: E. White · Off: R. Robles
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Alta · On: M. Ibarra · Off: C. Anderson
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Alta · On: S. Ramos · Off: A. Aoumaich
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' T. Sims · Greenville Triumph
FTFULL TIME Alta 2–2 Greenville Triumph
FTAlta 2–2 Greenville Triumph · Alta win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Alta win49%

Draw25%

Greenville Triumph win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 03:30

VenueLancaster Municipal Stadium

Line-ups

Alta

Greenville Triumph

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Alta

Greenville Triumph

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Alta	29	−7	32
16	Greenville Triumph	28	−22	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Alta

Formation not confirmed

22 D. Smith

16 E. Ceja

4 M. Pajaro

15 M. Winum

3 A. Ortiz

21 J. Villalobos

99 C. Bahena Jr

5 M. Alassane

23 R. Thomas

18 A. Aoumaich

19 C. Anderson

Coach · Brian Kleiban

Substitutes

30 · M. Gonzalez

12 · N. Relerford

44 · K. Pehlivanov

52 · S. Ramos

10 · M. Ibarra

6 · O. Lay

32 · E. Jahng

24 · S. Higareda

40 · D. Aviles

Greenville Triumph

Formation not confirmed

30 S. Torman

4 T. Sims

5 B. Fricke

15 A. Patti

27 M. Nour

6 I. Agyaakwah

8 C. Herrera

20 A. Villanueva

9 R. Robles

17 B. Larsen

19 A. Liadi

Coach · Joel Tyson

Substitutes

1 · R. Bilichuk

12 · E. Lee

77 · D. Benton

18 · C. Evans

7 · D. Boyce

23 · E. White

25 · L. Castro

Our number · alta winPublished 11 Oct 03:54

49% The market43%

Us49%

~~Market~~43%

We make Alta a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · alta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alta win	49%	43%	+5
Draw	25%	25%	0
Greenville Triumph win	26%	31%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	53%	60%	−8
Both teams to score	55%	63%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	40%	−10
Alta or draw	74%	69%	+5
Alta clean sheet	32%	–	–
Greenville Triumph clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.5 6.9 4.1 1 9.9 11.7 6.6 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 4.5 5.1 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alta down, Greenville Triumph across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,145 USL League One matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 250 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alta at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Greenville Triumph away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Alta, 1.15 for Greenville Triumph. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GRE 1–2 ALT · ALT 1–1 GRE · GRE 2–2 ALT

Form · last six in USL League One

ALTA

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–2

GREENVILLE TRIUMPH

LLLLLL1–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	30	+28	63
2	Union Omaha	30	+21	61
3	Forward Madison	30	+22	52
4	Boise	30	+7	52
5	One Knoxville	30	+15	51
6	Spokane Velocity	27	+5	47
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	+7	46
8	Fort Wayne	30	+9	45
9	Naples	29	−10	37
10	Westchester SC	30	+3	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	−3	36
12	Corpus Christi	29	−10	36
13	Alta	29	−7	32
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	−11	31
15	NY Cosmos	29	−23	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	−22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	30	−31	23