Alta v Corpus Christi prediction · USL League One

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alta are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alta 48%, draw 25%, Corpus Christi 27%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Alta v Corpus ChristiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Alta win48%

Draw25%

Corpus Christi win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueLancaster Municipal Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alta

Corpus Christi

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · USL League One

Last match: 17 Oct · USL League One

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Corpus Christi	31	−15	36
13	Alta	31	−8	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alta winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make Alta a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alta v Corpus Christi~~1.60 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 33 v 36~~13 v 12

~~The market · Alta win~~49% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alta win	48%	49%	−1
Draw	25%	25%	0
Corpus Christi win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	59%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	61%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
Alta or draw	73%	74%	−1
Alta clean sheet	32%	–	–
Corpus Christi clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.7 7.3 4.2 1 10.2 11.8 6.7 2.6 2 8.2 9.3 5.3 2.0 3 4.4 5.0 2.8 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alta down, Corpus Christi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,166 USL League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.1% of games this season, across 271 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alta at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Corpus Christi away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Alta, 1.15 for Corpus Christi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~COR 0–0 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL League One this season · since 6 Sept

ALTA

LLLLDL1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

CORPUS CHRISTI

WWLLLL1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	31	+31	66
2	Union Omaha	31	+20	61
3	Forward Madison	31	+24	55
4	Boise	31	+8	55
5	Spokane Velocity	31	+7	54
6	One Knoxville	32	+16	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	32	+6	47
8	Fort Wayne	31	+7	45
9	Naples	31	−8	43
10	Westchester SC	31	+4	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	31	−2	39
12	Corpus Christi	31	−15	36
13	Alta	31	−8	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	−13	31
15	Greenville Triumph	31	−24	27
16	NY Cosmos	32	−26	27
17	Richmond Kickers	31	−27	26