Tampa Bay Rowdies v Sporting JAX prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2–0 Sporting JAX TAMPA BAY ROWDIES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tampa Bay Rowdies win~~79%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.068

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.044

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tampa Bay Rowdies win at 79%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tampa Bay Rowdies was 79% before kick-off and our model makes it 79% now. 0–0 · 79–13–9
1′KICK-OFF Tampa Bay Rowdies v Sporting JAX
4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' T. Roberts · Sporting JAX
8′We published Tampa Bay Rowdies at 79%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–6–3
13′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sporting JAX · On: K. Sadlier · Off: T. Roberts
13′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sporting JAX · On: D. Wilson · Off: A. Gomez
13′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sporting JAX · On: W. Kuzain · Off: R. Somersall
15′🟨 YELLOW · 73' L. Perez · Tampa Bay Rowdies
16′🟨 YELLOW · 75' R. Pedder · Sporting JAX
24′82′: M. Micaletto on the scoresheet for Tampa Bay Rowdies, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–1
24′⚽ GOAL · 82' Tampa Bay Rowdies 2–0 Sporting JAX · M. Micaletto
25′We published Tampa Bay Rowdies at 79%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–1
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' M. Micaletto · Tampa Bay Rowdies
30′K. Henderlong scores for Tampa Bay Rowdies on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–8–3
30′Goals are coming at about the 4.0 we expected. 1–0 · 89–8–3
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Sporting JAX · K. Henderlong
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 79% at kick-off, 89% now
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' G. Vivi Quesada · Tampa Bay Rowdies
31′🟨 YELLOW · 89' L. Wyke · Tampa Bay Rowdies
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' A. Al Qaq · Sporting JAX
45′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Sporting JAX · On: J. Rossiter · Off: A. Luckhurst
45′HALF-TIME Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Sporting JAX
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' J. Rossiter · Sporting JAX
49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' V. Alvarado · Sporting JAX
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tampa Bay Rowdies · On: Pedro Becker · Off: L. Archer
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Sporting JAX · On: E. Jaaskelainen · Off: A. Al Qaq
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' A. Gomez · Sporting JAX
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tampa Bay Rowdies · On: L. Perez · Off: G. Vivi Quesada
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tampa Bay Rowdies · On: G. Nigro · Off: C. Ostrem
FTFULL TIME Tampa Bay Rowdies 2–0 Sporting JAX
FTTampa Bay Rowdies 2–0 Sporting JAX · Tampa Bay Rowdies win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tampa Bay Rowdies are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies 79%, draw 12%, Sporting JAX 9%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Tampa Bay Rowdies v Sporting JAXBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tampa Bay Rowdies win79%

Draw12%

Sporting JAX win9%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueAl Lang Stadium

RefereeA. Sobolevsky

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Sporting JAX

7Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

Last match: 22 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tampa bay rowdies winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

79% The market83%

Us79%

~~Market~~83%

We make Tampa Bay Rowdies a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tampa Bay Rowdies v Sporting JAX~~3.06 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 58 v 14~~1 v 13

~~The market · Tampa Bay Rowdies win~~83% · ours 79%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tampa Bay Rowdies win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tampa Bay Rowdies win	79%	83%	−4
Draw	12%	11%	+1
Sporting JAX win	9%	6%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Both teams to score	58%	48%	+10
Over 1.5 goals	90%	87%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw	91%	94%	−3
Tampa Bay Rowdies clean sheet	39%	–	–
Sporting JAX clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 8.6%

0123450 1 5.8 5.3 2.5 2 8.5 8.0 3.8 3 8.6 8.0 3.8 4 6.5 6.1 2.9 5 4.1 3.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Tampa Bay Rowdies down, Sporting JAX across0–5 goals a side shown (90.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,566 USL Championship matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 363 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tampa Bay Rowdies at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting JAX away: 0.83 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.06 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies, 0.95 for Sporting JAX. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–2 TAM · SPO 0–1 TAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept

TAMPA BAY ROWDIES

LWDLWW1–3 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

SPORTING JAX

LLLLLL0–3 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	+24	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	+20	50
3	Detroit City	29	+13	50
4	Louisville City	29	+8	46
5	Rhode Island	29	+10	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	+2	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	+1	40
8	Miami FC	30	−10	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	−5	34
10	Birmingham Legion	29	−5	30
11	Loudoun United	29	−11	28
12	Brooklyn	29	−28	21
13	Sporting JAX	29	−44	14