Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:01

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Detroit City TAMPA BAY ROWDIES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tampa Bay Rowdies win~~45%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.460

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.368

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tampa Bay Rowdies win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tampa Bay Rowdies 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' M. Schneider · Tampa Bay Rowdies
29′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Pedro Becker · Tampa Bay Rowdies
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' A. Dalou · Detroit City
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Tampa Bay Rowdies win 36%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′HALF-TIME Tampa Bay Rowdies 0–0 Detroit City
47′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–45–22
47′SECOND HALF Tampa Bay Rowdies 0–0 Detroit City
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' M. Bryant · Detroit City
58′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–52–19
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tampa Bay Rowdies · On: M. Micaletto · Off: L. Perez
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tampa Bay Rowdies · On: K. Henderlong · Off: Pedro Becker
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
68′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–0 · 22–62–16
68′🟨 YELLOW · 65' H. Yamazaki · Detroit City
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Detroit City · On: T. Silva · Off: A. Diouf
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Detroit City · On: C. Niang · Off: A. Dalou
72′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
79′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–78–9
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 45% at kick-off, 13% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Detroit City · On: Rafa Mentzingen · Off: H. Yamazaki
83′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' K. Hernandez-Foster · Detroit City
89′Tampa Bay Rowdies ahead on 88′ through S. Cruz. 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
89′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Detroit City · S. Cruz
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Tampa Bay Rowdies win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Tampa Bay Rowdies · On: A. Rodriguez · Off: M. Myers
FTFULL TIME Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Detroit City
FTTampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Detroit City · Tampa Bay Rowdies win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tampa Bay Rowdies are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies 45%, draw 28%, Detroit City 27%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tampa Bay Rowdies win45%

Draw28%

Detroit City win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueAl Lang Stadium

RefereeE. Lezama

Line-ups

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Detroit City

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Detroit City

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Waite

26 D. Acoff

27 L. Wyke

62 N. Dossantos

20 C. Ostrem

23 M. Schneider

13 L. Perez

8 Pedro Becker

30 S. Cruz

9 M. Myers

10 R. Cicerone

Coach · Dominic Casciato

Substitutes

24 · A. Pack

55 · L. Archer

3 · B. Schaefer

4 · L. Hilton

16 · M. Micaletto

11 · G. Vivi Quesada

14 · K. Henderlong

36 · A. Rodriguez

Detroit City

Formation not confirmed

91 C. Saldana

12 M. Bryant

30 D. Amoo-Mensah

4 C. Montgomery

3 A. Stanley

15 A. Dalou

21 M. Rodriguez

22 K. Hernandez-Foster

14 H. Yamazaki

7 D. Smith

32 A. Diouf

Coach · Danny Dichio

Substitutes

16 · T. Mkuruva

33 · T. Silva

6 · R. Williams

17 · Rafa Mentzingen

8 · A. Diop

10 · J. Cedeno

19 · C. Niang

Our number · tampa bay rowdies winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Tampa Bay Rowdies a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City~~1.29 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 55 v 50~~1 v 2

~~The market · Tampa Bay Rowdies win~~51% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tampa Bay Rowdies win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tampa Bay Rowdies win	45%	51%	−6
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Detroit City win	27%	20%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−6
Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw	73%	80%	−7
Tampa Bay Rowdies clean sheet	39%	–	–
Detroit City clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 10.8 10.2 4.8 1 13.9 12.7 6.0 2 8.9 8.3 3.9 3 3.9 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tampa Bay Rowdies down, Detroit City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 USL Championship matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 349 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tampa Bay Rowdies at home: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Detroit City away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies, 0.94 for Detroit City. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DET 1–0 TAM · TAM 1–1 DET · DET 2–0 TAM · DET 1–1 TAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 5 Sept

TAMPA BAY ROWDIES

WLWDLW2–0 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–1

DETROIT CITY

LWDWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	+23	55
2	Detroit City	28	+14	50
3	Charleston Battery	28	+19	47
4	Rhode Island	28	+10	41
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	+2	41
6	Louisville City	27	+3	40
7	Hartford Athletic	28	+2	40
8	Miami FC	29	−9	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	−2	34
10	Loudoun United	28	−11	27
11	Birmingham Legion	27	−6	26
12	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
13	Sporting JAX	28	−42	14