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Sporting JAX v Birmingham Legion

Sporting JAX
0–1Full time
Birmingham Legion

USL Championship · THU 15 OCT · Hodges Stadium

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 02:30
Sporting JAX 0–1 Birmingham Legion BIRMINGHAM LEGION WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Birmingham Legion win48%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.418
The market’s Brier score0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 38 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Birmingham Legion win at 48%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Birmingham Legion was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 31–21–47
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sporting JAX v Birmingham Legion
  4. 3′Much as we predicted: Birmingham Legion was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 31–22–47
  5. 11′G. Diarbian scores for Birmingham Legion on 36′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 31–23–46
  6. 11′SUBSTITUTION · 11' Birmingham Legion · On: Paterson AJ · Off: H. Diop Corrected
  7. 13′Much as we predicted: Birmingham Legion was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 31–23–46
  8. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Sporting JAX
  9. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Sporting JAX
  10. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 26' H. Neville · Sporting JAX
  11. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' V. Alvarado · Sporting JAX
  12. 36′SUBSTITUTION · 11' Birmingham Legion · On: Paterson AJ · Off: H. Diop Corrected
  13. 37′G. Diarbian scores for Birmingham Legion on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–70
  14. 37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Sporting JAX 0–1 Birmingham Legion · G. Diarbian (assist R. Damus)
  15. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Birmingham Legion win: 47% at kick-off, 70% now
  16. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Birmingham Legion win: 47% at kick-off, 44% now
  17. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Sporting JAX 0–1 Birmingham Legion
  18. 38′G. Diarbian scores for Birmingham Legion on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–71
  19. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Birmingham Legion win: 47% at kick-off, 44% now
  20. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Birmingham Legion win: 47% at kick-off, 70% now
  21. 39′SUBSTITUTION · 11' Birmingham Legion · On: Paterson AJ · Off: H. Diop Corrected
  22. 39′⚽ GOAL · 36' Sporting JAX 0–1 Birmingham Legion · G. Diarbian (assist R. Damus)
  23. 40′Paterson AJ scores for Birmingham Legion on 37′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
  24. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Birmingham Legion win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
  25. 41′We published Birmingham Legion at 47%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 10–19–71
  26. 43′We published Birmingham Legion at 48%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 10–19–71
  27. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Birmingham Legion win: 47% at kick-off, 70% now
  28. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Birmingham Legion win: 47% at kick-off, 70% now
  29. 45′HALF-TIME Sporting JAX 0–1 Birmingham Legion
  30. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sporting JAX · On: A. Al Qaq · Off: K. Sadlier Corrected
  31. 46′SECOND HALF Sporting JAX 0–1 Birmingham Legion
  32. 59′We published Birmingham Legion at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
  33. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Sporting JAX
  34. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' E. Rito · Sporting JAX
  35. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sporting JAX · On: K. Sadlier · Off: W. Kuzain
  36. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Birmingham Legion · On: S. Tregarthen · Off: P. Vassell
  37. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Birmingham Legion win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
  38. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sporting JAX · On: E. Jaaskelainen · Off: A. Luckhurst
  39. 72′We published Birmingham Legion at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  40. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Birmingham Legion · On: S. Saucedo · Off: G. Diarbian
  41. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Birmingham Legion
  42. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' N. Brown · Birmingham Legion
  43. 78′We published Birmingham Legion at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  44. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Birmingham Legion win: 48% at kick-off, 89% now
  45. 83′We published Birmingham Legion at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  46. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sporting JAX · On: R. Pedder · Off: A. Al Qaq
  47. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sporting JAX · On: R. Somersall · Off: T. Roberts
  48. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Birmingham Legion · On: R. Williams · Off: S. Shashoua
  49. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Birmingham Legion · On: P. Kavita · Off: Paterson AJ
  50. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Sporting JAX
  51. 90′We published Birmingham Legion at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  52. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' A. Gomez · Sporting JAX
  53. FTFULL TIME Sporting JAX 0–1 Birmingham Legion
  54. FTSporting JAX 0–1 Birmingham Legion · Birmingham Legion win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Birmingham Legion are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting JAX 32%, draw 21%, Birmingham Legion 48%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Sporting JAX v Birmingham LegionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Match timeline

Key events

Sporting JAXMINBirmingham Legion
G. DiarbianAssist · R. Damus
36′0–1

Line-ups

Sporting JAX

4-2-3-1

Birmingham Legion

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting JAX

Birmingham Legion

14Days since last match11
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Birmingham Legion26-723
13Sporting JAX27-4114

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

Sporting JAX win32%
Draw21%
Birmingham Legion win48%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:00

VenueHodges Stadium

RefereeE. Osmanovic

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting JAX

4-2-3-1

1 J. McGuire

12 E. Rito

22 A. Gomez

13 V. Alvarado

2 H. Neville

6 J. Rossiter

24 T. Roberts

8 Wan Kuzain

14 Jean Mota

11 A. Al Qaq

9 A. Luckhurst

Coach · L. Fox

Substitutes

28 · E. Underwood

18 · W. Ackwei

42 · E. Casas

19 · Rafferty John Pedder

44 · R. Sommersall

16 · Emil Jaaskelainen

10 · K. Sadlier

21 · M. Godinho

Birmingham Legion

4-2-3-1

1 J. Koleilat

77 N. Brown

27 B. Washington

20 A. Paterson

11 D. McCartney

6 S. McIllhatton

18 S. Antwi

16 P. Vassell

10 S. Shashoua

19 Gevork Diarbian

9 R. Damus

Coach · Jay Heaps

Substitutes

3 · P. Kavita

12 · T. McMullen

7 · S. Saucedo

21 · S. Tregarthen

17 · R. Williams

34 · J. Lester

26 · A. Daley

Our number · birmingham legion winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off
48% The market50%
Us48%
Market50%

We make Birmingham Legion a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sporting JAX v Birmingham Legion1.64 – 2.05
Last six in USL ChampionshipW1 D0 L5 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 14 v 2313 v 11
The market · Birmingham Legion win50% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 22:12
Our probability · birmingham legion win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. The market has gone from 46% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sporting JAX win32%27%+5
Draw21%23%−3
Birmingham Legion win48%50%−2
Over 2.5 goals71%67%+3
Both teams to score69%67%+2
Over 1.5 goals88%84%+3
Over 3.5 goals50%48%+2
Sporting JAX or draw52%50%+2
Sporting JAX clean sheet13%––
Birmingham Legion clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.4%
0123450 2.6 5.3 5.3 3.6 1 4.3 8.3 8.4 5.8 3.0 2 3.4 6.8 6.8 4.7 2.4 3 3.7 3.8 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting JAX down, Birmingham Legion across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsBIR 2–3 SPO

Form · last six in USL Championship

SPORTING JAX

LWLLLL1–4 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 1–4

BIRMINGHAM LEGION

DDDLWL2–2 · 2–2 · 4–4 · 0–4 · 4–0 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tampa Bay Rowdies282355
2Detroit City281450
3Charleston Battery271946
4Pittsburgh Riverhounds28241
5Louisville City27340
6Hartford Athletic27239
7Rhode Island27938
8Miami FC29-936
9Indy Eleven28-234
10Loudoun United27-1027
11Birmingham Legion26-723
12Brooklyn27-2818
13Sporting JAX27-4114

The competition's standings.

Last updated 10 Oct 22:03 UK time.