San Antonio v Orange County SC prediction · USL Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Antonio are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Antonio 48%, draw 26%, Orange County SC 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on San Antonio v Orange County SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

San Antonio win48%

Draw26%

Orange County SC win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueToyota Field

RefereeE. Osmanovic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Antonio

Orange County SC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	San Antonio	29	+1	42
9	Orange County SC	29	−9	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san antonio winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market54%

Us48%

~~Market~~54%

We make San Antonio a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Antonio v Orange County SC~~1.48 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 42 v 39~~7 v 9

~~The market · San Antonio win~~54% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Antonio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Antonio win	48%	54%	−6
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Orange County SC win	26%	21%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	30%	−6
San Antonio or draw	74%	79%	−5
San Antonio clean sheet	36%	–	–
Orange County SC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 8.3 8.5 4.3 1 12.3 12.1 6.2 2.1 2 9.0 9.0 4.6 3 4.5 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Antonio down, Orange County SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,567 USL Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.5% of games this season, across 364 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Antonio at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Orange County SC away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for San Antonio, 1.02 for Orange County SC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ORA 2–0 SAN · ORA 1–0 SAN · SAN 3–1 ORA · ORA 2–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept

SAN ANTONIO

LDDLDW1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

ORANGE COUNTY SC

LLWLLL0–2 · 0–6 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	El Paso Locomotive	29	+11	50
2	New Mexico United	29	+10	49
3	Sacramento Republic	29	+13	48
4	Lexington	29	+18	47
5	Colorado Springs	29	+4	44
6	FC Tulsa	29	+5	43
7	San Antonio	29	+1	42
8	Phoenix Rising	29	−1	39
9	Orange County SC	29	−9	39
10	Oakland Roots	29	0	38
11	Las Vegas Lights	29	−6	36
12	Monterey Bay	29	−21	21