San Antonio v New Mexico United prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:05

San Antonio 1–0 New Mexico United SAN ANTONIO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said San Antonio win~~40%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.546

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.400

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Antonio win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: San Antonio was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
1′KICK-OFF San Antonio v New Mexico United
9′SUBSTITUTION · 8' San Antonio · On: C. Calov · Off: M. Maldonado
29′29′: C. Calov on the scoresheet for San Antonio, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–21–10
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' San Antonio 1–0 New Mexico United · C. Calov
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' San Antonio win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
30′We published San Antonio at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME San Antonio 1–0 New Mexico United
46′SECOND HALF San Antonio 1–0 New Mexico United
52′We published San Antonio at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' C. Gloster · New Mexico United
66′We published San Antonio at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Tiago · San Antonio
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' New Mexico United · On: J. LaCava · Off: N. Hamalainen Corrected
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' San Antonio win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' New Mexico United · On: J. LaCava · Off: C. Gloster
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' New Mexico United · On: C. Wilkerson · Off: C. Dennis
76′We published San Antonio at 40%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' San Antonio · On: D. Pacheco · Off: S. Patino
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' San Antonio · On: L. Haakenson · Off: C. Calov
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' New Mexico United · On: J. Melto Quiah · Off: V. Noel
81′We published San Antonio at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' San Antonio win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
81′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Z. Bailey · New Mexico United
82′A red card for New Mexico United on 80′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 91–8–0
87′Red cards for both sides: San Antonio down to ten, New Mexico United to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′🟥 RED CARD · 81' L. Haakenson · San Antonio
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' E. Cuello · San Antonio
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' San Antonio · On: C. Sorto · Off: C. Parano
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' New Mexico United · On: J. Rennicks · Off: T. Blackett
88′We published San Antonio at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' M. Taintor · San Antonio
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' D. Pacheco · San Antonio
FTFULL TIME San Antonio 1–0 New Mexico United
FTSan Antonio 1–0 New Mexico United · San Antonio win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Antonio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Antonio 40%, draw 27%, New Mexico United 33%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on San Antonio v New Mexico UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

San Antonio win40%

Draw27%

New Mexico United win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 01:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueToyota Field

RefereeM. Kaleia

Line-ups

San Antonio

New Mexico United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Antonio

New Mexico United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	New Mexico United	28	+11	49
8	San Antonio	28	0	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

San Antonio

Formation not confirmed

98 J. Batrouni

13 A. Ward

21 A. Crognale

43 Tiago

3 M. Taintor

4 N. Blanco

19 C. Parano

15 M. Maldonado

14 L. Berron

22 E. Cuello

9 S. Patino

Coach · Carlos Llamosa

Substitutes

31 · D. Namani

17 · D. Barbir

46 · B. Guevara

6 · C. Calov

7 · L. Haakenson

11 · A. Greive

70 · D. Pacheco

99 · C. Sorto

45 · L. Urrutia

New Mexico United

Formation not confirmed

13 K. Shakes

2 N. Hamalainen

4 K. Keller

24 T. Blackett

3 C. Gloster

15 O. Jabang

19 Z. Bailey

14 C. Dennis

21 V. Noel

7 N. Reid-Stephen

10 G. Hurst

Coach · Dennis Sanchez

Substitutes

33 · A. Pannenberg

27 · M. Howell

28 · C. Wilkerson

9 · J. Rennicks

17 · J. LaCava

11 · C. Nava

31 · J. Melto Quiah

Our number · san antonio winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market48%

Us40%

~~Market~~48%

We make San Antonio a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Antonio v New Mexico United~~1.30 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 39 v 49~~8 v 2

~~The market · San Antonio win~~48% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Antonio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Antonio win	40%	48%	−8
Draw	27%	25%	+2
New Mexico United win	33%	26%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	44%	54%	−10
Both teams to score	49%	56%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	76%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	23%	33%	−10
San Antonio or draw	67%	74%	−7
San Antonio clean sheet	32%	–	–
New Mexico United clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.7 10.1 5.8 2.3 1 11.3 12.6 7.3 2.9 2 7.2 8.2 4.7 3 3.1 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Antonio down, New Mexico United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 USL Championship matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 349 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Antonio at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). New Mexico United away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for San Antonio, 1.16 for New Mexico United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEW 1–2 SAN · SAN 1–0 NEW · NEW 2–0 SAN · SAN 0–1 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 6 Sept

SAN ANTONIO

DLDDLD0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

NEW MEXICO UNITED

DDLLWW4–4 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	El Paso Locomotive	28	+12	50
2	New Mexico United	28	+11	49
3	Sacramento Republic	28	+12	45
4	Lexington	28	+16	44
5	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
6	Colorado Springs	28	+3	41
7	Orange County SC	28	−7	39
8	San Antonio	28	0	39
9	Phoenix Rising	28	−3	36
10	Las Vegas Lights	28	−4	36
11	Oakland Roots	28	−2	35
12	Monterey Bay	28	−20	21