Sacramento Republic v Oakland Roots prediction · USL Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sacramento RepublicDrawOakland Roots

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sacramento Republic 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sacramento Republic are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sacramento Republic 57%, draw 24%, Oakland Roots 19%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Sacramento Republic v Oakland RootsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sacramento Republic win57%

Draw24%

Oakland Roots win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHeart Health Park

RefereeJ. Griggs

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sacramento Republic

Oakland Roots

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sacramento Republic	29	+13	48
10	Oakland Roots	29	0	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sacramento republic winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market61%

Us57%

~~Market~~61%

We make Sacramento Republic a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sacramento Republic v Oakland Roots~~1.66 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 48 v 38~~3 v 10

~~The market · Sacramento Republic win~~61% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sacramento Republic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sacramento Republic win	57%	61%	−4
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Oakland Roots win	19%	16%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	45%	46%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Sacramento Republic or draw	81%	84%	−3
Sacramento Republic clean sheet	44%	–	–
Oakland Roots clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 8.4 7.1 2.9 1 13.8 11.2 4.7 2 11.3 9.3 3.9 3 6.3 5.1 2.1 4 2.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sacramento Republic down, Oakland Roots across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,566 USL Championship matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 363 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sacramento Republic at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Oakland Roots away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Sacramento Republic, 0.83 for Oakland Roots. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OAK 1–3 SAC · OAK 0–1 SAC · SAC 3–3 OAK · OAK 0–1 SAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 13 Sept

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC

DWWDDW0–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

OAKLAND ROOTS

LWWDDW1–4 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 4–2

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	El Paso Locomotive	29	+11	50
2	New Mexico United	29	+10	49
3	Sacramento Republic	29	+13	48
4	Lexington	29	+18	47
5	Colorado Springs	29	+4	44
6	FC Tulsa	29	+5	43
7	San Antonio	29	+1	42
8	Phoenix Rising	29	−1	39
9	Orange County SC	29	−9	39
10	Oakland Roots	29	0	38
11	Las Vegas Lights	29	−6	36
12	Monterey Bay	29	−21	21