Sacramento Republic v Colorado Springs prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 05:30

Sacramento Republic 1–1 Colorado Springs SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sacramento Republic win~~53%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.888

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sacramento Republic win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sacramento Republic 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
1′KICK-OFF Sacramento Republic v Colorado Springs
2′Little has changed for our model: Sacramento Republic 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Colorado Springs
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Sacramento Republic win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Sacramento Republic win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sacramento Republic win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sacramento Republic win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Sacramento Republic win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Sacramento Republic win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Sacramento Republic win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Sacramento Republic win: 53% at kick-off, 44% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Sacramento Republic win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Sacramento Republic
45′We said Sacramento Republic at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–40–19
45′HALF-TIME Sacramento Republic 0–0 Colorado Springs
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sacramento Republic win: 53% at kick-off, 40% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sacramento Republic · On: T. Wolff · Off: F. Kleemann
46′SECOND HALF Sacramento Republic 0–0 Colorado Springs
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Sacramento Republic 0–1 Colorado Springs
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Sacramento Republic
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sacramento Republic · On: K. Edwards · Off: B. Willey
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sacramento Republic · On: F. Ajago · Off: C. Jennings
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Colorado Springs · On: S. Echevarria · Off: A. Perez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Colorado Springs · On: T. Magee · Off: F. Daroma
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Colorado Springs · On: B. Jamison · Off: P. Burner
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' C. Herrera · Colorado Springs
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Sacramento Republic 1–1 Colorado Springs
85′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sacramento Republic · On: M. Benitez · Off: R. Spaulding
86′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sacramento Republic · On: M. Malango · Off: T. Wolff
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Colorado Springs · On: D. Lacroix · Off: A. Rocha
90′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Colorado Springs
FTFULL TIME Sacramento Republic 1–1 Colorado Springs
FTSacramento Republic 1–1 Colorado Springs · Sacramento Republic win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sacramento Republic win53%

Draw25%

Colorado Springs win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 03:00

VenueHeart Health Park

RefereeA. Pennington

Line-ups

Sacramento Republic

Colorado Springs

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sacramento Republic

Colorado Springs

7Days since last match7

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
11	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sacramento Republic

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Vitiello

2 J. Gurr

6 F. Kleemann

4 L. Desmond

5 J. Timmer

24 J. Casas

27 D. Crisostomo

20 B. Willey

8 M. Rodriguez

3 R. Spaulding

26 C. Jennings

Coach · Neill Collins

Substitutes

31 · J. Randolph

22 · M. Benitez

15 · A. Essel

11 · F. Ajago

7 · M. Malango

16 · T. Wolff

71 · K. Edwards

Colorado Springs

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Herrera

5 M. Mahoney

24 T. Maples

12 I. Foster

97 P. Burner

8 F. Daroma

6 S. Williams

18 A. Rocha

27 J. Tejada

10 A. Perez

90 K. Bennett

Coach · Alan McCann

Substitutes

22 · C. Shutler

14 · D. Lacroix

13 · S. Echevarria

21 · T. Magee

7 · J. Fjeldberg

11 · B. Jamison

80 · D. Williams

Our number · sacramento republic winPublished 11 Oct 03:54

53% The market47%

Us53%

~~Market~~47%

We make Sacramento Republic a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sacramento republic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sacramento Republic win	53%	47%	+5
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Colorado Springs win	22%	25%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	46%	51%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	26%	−3
Sacramento Republic or draw	78%	75%	+3
Sacramento Republic clean sheet	41%	–	–
Colorado Springs clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 8.7 7.9 3.5 1 13.5 11.7 5.3 2 10.4 9.1 4.1 3 5.4 4.8 2.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sacramento Republic down, Colorado Springs across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,544 USL Championship matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 341 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sacramento Republic at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Colorado Springs away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Sacramento Republic, 0.89 for Colorado Springs. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COL 0–1 SAC · COL 0–2 SAC · SAC 2–2 COL · SAC 0–1 COL

Form · last six in USL Championship

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC

DWDWWD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–1

COLORADO SPRINGS

WWWDDD1–0 · 5–4 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	+23	55
2	Detroit City	28	+14	50
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	27	+19	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Lexington	28	+16	44
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
8	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
9	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	+2	41
10	Louisville City	27	+3	40
11	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
12	Hartford Athletic	27	+2	39
13	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
14	Rhode Island	27	+9	38
15	San Antonio	27	0	38
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	29	−9	36
18	Indy Eleven	28	−2	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	27	−10	27
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14