Rhode Island v Pittsburgh Riverhounds prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:01

Rhode Island 1–1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds RHODE ISLAND WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rhode Island win~~41%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.705

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.794

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rhode Island win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rhode Island 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–32–27
1′KICK-OFF Rhode Island v Pittsburgh Riverhounds
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' K. Yao · Rhode Island
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Rhode Island win 35%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Rhode Island win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′HALF-TIME Rhode Island 0–0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
46′SECOND HALF Rhode Island 0–0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
47′We said Rhode Island at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
58′PENALTY MISSED · 56' Leo Afonso · Rhode Island
62′We said Rhode Island at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–61–16
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Pittsburgh Riverhounds · On: E. Goldthorp · Off: T. Amann
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Rhode Island win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rhode Island · On: S. Korzeniowski · Off: N. Fuson
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rhode Island · On: A. Shapiro-Thompson · Off: Z. Herivaux
68′We said Rhode Island at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Pittsburgh Riverhounds · On: B. Etou · Off: C. Ahl
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Pittsburgh Riverhounds · On: Y. Tsukanome · Off: S. Bassett
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rhode Island · On: D. Atkinson · Off: A. Sanchez
74′O. Foyo scores for Rhode Island on 74′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–10–1
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Rhode Island 1–0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds · O. Foyo
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Rhode Island win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Rhode Island win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
75′We said Rhode Island at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–10–1
76′We said Rhode Island at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Rhode Island win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pittsburgh Riverhounds · On: R. Ydrach · Off: I. Osumanu
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rhode Island · On: E. Klein · Off: Leo Afonso
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rhode Island · On: G. Stoneman · Off: O. Foyo
84′We said Rhode Island at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
95′90′: E. Goldthorp on the scoresheet for Pittsburgh Riverhounds, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 1–98–1
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Rhode Island 1–1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds · E. Goldthorp
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+5' Rhode Island win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Rhode Island win 1%)
FTFULL TIME Rhode Island 1–1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
FTRhode Island 1–1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Rhode Island win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rhode Island are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rhode Island 41%, draw 32%, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 27%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Rhode Island v Pittsburgh RiverhoundsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rhode Island win41%

Draw32%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueCentreville Bank Stadium

Line-ups

Rhode Island

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rhode Island

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

3Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · USL Championship

Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Rhode Island	28	+10	41
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	+2	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rhode Island

Formation not confirmed

1 Koke Vegas

22 N. Scardina

24 K. Yao

15 F. Nodarse

3 A. Sanchez

21 Z. Herivaux

4 H. Bacharach Capdevila

17 J. Kwizera

8 Leo Afonso

11 N. Fuson

18 O. Foyo

Coach · Khano Smith

Substitutes

29 · J. Castro

2 · D. Rovira

5 · G. Stoneman

16 · E. Klein

77 · A. Shapiro-Thompson

7 · D. Atkinson

30 · K. Medina

37 · S. Korzeniowski

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Campuzano

3 P. Barnes

5 V. Souza

6 O. Mikoy

28 I. Osumanu

42 J. Walti

14 R. Mertz

2 D. Griffin

10 C. Ahl

7 T. Amann

19 S. Bassett

Coach · Rob Vincent

Substitutes

24 · M. Sheridan

8 · B. Etou

16 · R. Ydrach

23 · G. Vacter

15 · B. Sample

37 · E. Goldthorp

36 · Y. Tsukanome

Our number · rhode island winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market51%

Us41%

~~Market~~51%

We make Rhode Island a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rhode Island v Pittsburgh Riverhounds~~1.05 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 41 v 41~~4 v 5

~~The market · Rhode Island win~~51% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rhode Island win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rhode Island win	41%	51%	−10
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Pittsburgh Riverhounds win	27%	20%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	28%	38%	−10
Both teams to score	35%	41%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	55%	62%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	12%	19%	−7
Rhode Island or draw	73%	80%	−7
Rhode Island clean sheet	46%	–	–
Pittsburgh Riverhounds clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.7%

0123450 16.1 12.7 5.0 1 16.7 12.9 5.2 2 8.7 6.8 2.7 3 3.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rhode Island down, Pittsburgh Riverhounds across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 USL Championship matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 349 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.14 goals a meeting; 0 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rhode Island at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pittsburgh Riverhounds away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Rhode Island, 0.79 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.14

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 7

~~Both scored~~0 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PIT 0–1 RHO · PIT 1–0 RHO · PIT 2–0 RHO · PIT 0–1 RHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 29 Aug

RHODE ISLAND

LLWWLW1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS

DDWLLW0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	+23	55
2	Detroit City	28	+14	50
3	Charleston Battery	28	+19	47
4	Rhode Island	28	+10	41
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	+2	41
6	Louisville City	27	+3	40
7	Hartford Athletic	28	+2	40
8	Miami FC	29	−9	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	−2	34
10	Loudoun United	28	−11	27
11	Birmingham Legion	27	−6	26
12	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
13	Sporting JAX	28	−42	14