Rhode Island v Loudoun United prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 03:00

Rhode Island 1–0 Loudoun United RHODE ISLAND WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Rhode Island win~~56%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.293

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.227

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rhode Island win at 56%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Rhode Island 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–20
1′KICK-OFF Rhode Island v Loudoun United
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Rhode Island 1–0 Loudoun United
6′Rhode Island ahead on 3′ through N. Scardina. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Rhode Island win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
9′We said Rhode Island at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
45′SECOND HALF Rhode Island 1–0 Loudoun United
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Loudoun United · On: P. Santos · Off: G. Lomtadze
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' J. Murphy · Loudoun United
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Y. Tsukada · Rhode Island
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rhode Island · On: Leo Afonso · Off: N. Fuson
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rhode Island · On: O. Foyo · Off: S. Korzeniowski
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Loudoun United · On: P. Niyongabire · Off: L. Piras
63′We said Rhode Island at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Rhode Island win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Loudoun United · On: L. Butts · Off: J. Murphy
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Loudoun United · On: A. O'Connor · Off: N. Adnan
76′We said Rhode Island at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
77′Rhode Island are down to ten from 78′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 90–9–1
77′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Y. Tsukada · Rhode Island
77′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Y. Tsukada · Rhode Island
79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Y. Tsukada · Rhode Island
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' A. Aboukoura · Loudoun United
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rhode Island · On: Z. Herivaux · Off: J. Kwizera
83′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rhode Island · On: G. Stoneman · Off: N. Scardina
84′We said Rhode Island at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rhode Island · On: G. Stoneman · Off: N. Scardina
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' P. Niyongabire · Loudoun United
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Rhode Island win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Rhode Island · On: D. Rovira · Off: A. Shapiro-Thompson
FTFULL TIME Rhode Island 1–0 Loudoun United
FTRhode Island 1–0 Loudoun United · Rhode Island win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rhode Island are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rhode Island 56%, draw 24%, Loudoun United 20%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Rhode Island v Loudoun UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 00:04 · locked at kick-off

Rhode Island win56%

Draw24%

Loudoun United win20%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:30

VenueCentreville Bank Stadium

Line-ups

Rhode Island

Loudoun United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rhode Island

Loudoun United

4Days since last match4

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Rhode Island	27	9	38
10	Loudoun United	27	-10	27

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rhode Island

Formation not confirmed

1 Koke Vegas

22 N. Scardina

24 K. Yao

15 F. Nodarse

3 A. Sanchez

4 H. Bacharach Capdevila

77 A. Shapiro-Thompson

17 J. Kwizera

11 N. Fuson

14 Y. Tsukada

37 S. Korzeniowski

Coach · Khano Smith

Substitutes

29 · J. Castro

2 · D. Rovira

5 · G. Stoneman

16 · E. Klein

21 · Z. Herivaux

18 · O. Foyo

30 · K. Medina

8 · Leo Afonso

Loudoun United

Formation not confirmed

41 E. Bandre

33 L. Piras

2 N. Adnan

5 S. Mazzaferro

6 K. Awuah

8 J. Murphy

28 R. Zouhir

18 G. Lomtadze

23 A. Watts

11 A. Aboukoura

9 E. Davis III

Coach · Anthony Limbrick

Substitutes

31 · P. Donovan

4 · A. O'Connor

38 · L. Barrus

10 · P. Santos

7 · P. Niyongabire

17 · L. Butts

Our number · rhode island winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:04 · locked at kick-off

56% The market61%

Us56%

~~Market~~61%

We make Rhode Island a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rhode Island v Loudoun United~~1.71 – 0.92

~~Last six in USL Championship~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 38 v 27~~7 v 10

~~The market · Rhode Island win~~61% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rhode island win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rhode Island win	56%	61%	−5
Draw	24%	21%	+3
Loudoun United win	20%	18%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	59%	−11
Both teams to score	49%	56%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	80%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	38%	−11
Rhode Island or draw	80%	82%	−3
Rhode Island clean sheet	40%	–	–
Loudoun United clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 7.4 6.8 3.1 1 12.5 11.2 5.2 2 10.5 9.5 4.4 3 6.0 5.4 2.5 4 2.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rhode Island down, Loudoun United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,549 USL Championship matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 346 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rhode Island at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Loudoun United away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Rhode Island, 0.92 for Loudoun United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LOU 1–4 RHO · RHO 0–0 LOU · LOU 2–0 RHO · RHO 0–0 LOU

Form · last six in USL Championship

RHODE ISLAND

WLLWWL3–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–1

LOUDOUN UNITED

LLLWDW4–5 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	23	55
2	Detroit City	28	14	50
3	Charleston Battery	27	19	46
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	2	41
5	Louisville City	27	3	40
6	Hartford Athletic	27	2	39
7	Rhode Island	27	9	38
8	Miami FC	29	-9	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	-2	34
10	Loudoun United	27	-10	27
11	Birmingham Legion	26	-7	23
12	Brooklyn	27	-28	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	-41	14