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Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Hartford Athletic

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

2–1Full time

Hartford Athletic

USL Championship · SUN 11 OCT · Highmark Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:30

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2–1 Hartford Athletic PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pittsburgh Riverhounds win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.517

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pittsburgh Riverhounds win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pittsburgh Riverhounds was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–31–26
1′KICK-OFF Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Hartford Athletic
2′Much as we predicted: Pittsburgh Riverhounds was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–31–26
7′6′ and it is 1–0: T. Amann on the scoresheet for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. 1–0 · 75–18–8
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–0 Hartford Athletic · T. Amann
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
10′6′ and it is 1–0: T. Amann on the scoresheet for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. 1–0 · 75–18–7
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 43% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
11′We published Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' S. Anaku · Hartford Athletic
14′We published Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' T. Amann · Pittsburgh Riverhounds
26′6′ and it is 1–0: T. Amann on the scoresheet for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. 1–0 · 76–18–6
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
27′6′ and it is 1–0: T. Amann on the scoresheet for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. 1–0 · 76–18–6
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
30′We published Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 44%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
32′We published Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 44%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–1 Hartford Athletic · M. Ngalina (assist E. Samadia)
45′HALF-TIME Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–1 Hartford Athletic
46′SECOND HALF Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–1 Hartford Athletic
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pittsburgh Riverhounds · On: E. Goldthorp · Off: T. Amann
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hartford Athletic · On: T. Presthus · Off: J. Scarlett
53′SECOND HALF Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–1 Hartford Athletic
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2–1 Hartford Athletic · C. Ahl
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hartford Athletic · On: A. Williams · Off: M. Ngalina
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hartford Athletic · On: A. Obalola · Off: S. Anaku
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hartford Athletic · On: B. Njie · Off: M. Real
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hartford Athletic · On: B. Mines · Off: B. Coffey
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Pittsburgh Riverhounds · On: B. Etou · Off: R. Mertz
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Pittsburgh Riverhounds · On: Y. Tsukanome · Off: C. Ahl
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' D. Griffin · Pittsburgh Riverhounds
FTFULL TIME Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2–1 Hartford Athletic
FTPittsburgh Riverhounds 2–1 Hartford Athletic · Pittsburgh Riverhounds win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Pittsburgh Riverhounds win44%

Draw30%

Hartford Athletic win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Highmark Stadium

Referee · A. Yaya

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Campuzano

3 P. Barnes

5 V. Souza

6 O. Mikoy

28 I. Osumanu

42 J. Walti

14 R. Mertz

2 D. Griffin

10 C. Ahl

7 T. Amann

19 S. Bassett

Coach · Rob Vincent

Substitutes

24 · M. Sheridan

8 · B. Etou

16 · R. Ydrach

23 · G. Vacter

15 · B. Sample

37 · E. Goldthorp

36 · Y. Tsukanome

Hartford Athletic

Formation not confirmed

77 A. Siaha

15 A. Diz

4 J. Scarlett

3 M. Real

2 S. Anderson

8 J. Moreira

7 M. Adedokun

19 E. Samadia

16 B. Coffey

11 M. Ngalina

17 S. Anaku

Coach · Brendan Burke

Substitutes

1 · E. Carvalho

5 · B. Njie

22 · T. Presthus

6 · B. Makangila

81 · A. Obalola

9 · A. Williams

21 · B. Mines

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Campuzano

3 P. Barnes

5 V. Souza

6 O. Mikoy

28 I. Osumanu

42 J. Walti

14 R. Mertz

2 D. Griffin

10 C. Ahl

7 T. Amann

19 S. Bassett

Coach · Rob Vincent

Substitutes

24 · M. Sheridan

8 · B. Etou

16 · R. Ydrach

23 · G. Vacter

15 · B. Sample

37 · E. Goldthorp

36 · Y. Tsukanome

Hartford Athletic

Formation not confirmed

77 A. Siaha

15 A. Diz

4 J. Scarlett

3 M. Real

2 S. Anderson

8 J. Moreira

7 M. Adedokun

19 E. Samadia

16 B. Coffey

11 M. Ngalina

17 S. Anaku

Coach · Brendan Burke

Substitutes

1 · E. Carvalho

5 · B. Njie

22 · T. Presthus

6 · B. Makangila

81 · A. Obalola

9 · A. Williams

21 · B. Mines

Our number · pittsburgh riverhounds winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Pittsburgh Riverhounds a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pittsburgh riverhounds win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pittsburgh Riverhounds win	44%	41%	+2
Draw	30%	30%	0
Hartford Athletic win	26%	29%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	31%	42%	−11
Both teams to score	37%	49%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	58%	67%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	14%	23%	−9
Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw	74%	71%	+3
Pittsburgh Riverhounds clean sheet	45%	–	–
Hartford Athletic clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.3%

0123450 14.2 11.5 4.6 1 16.3 12.8 5.2 2 9.3 7.4 3.0 3 3.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pittsburgh Riverhounds down, Hartford Athletic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,539 USL Championship matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 336 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.57 goals a meeting; 7 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hartford Athletic away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Pittsburgh Riverhounds, 0.81 for Hartford Athletic. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 14

~~Both scored~~8 of 14

~~Last meetings~~HAR 0–0 PIT · PIT 0–0 HAR · HAR 1–2 PIT · PIT 1–0 HAR

Form · last six in USL Championship

PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS

LDDWLL1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

HARTFORD ATHLETIC

WDWWDD2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	+13	47
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	26	+21	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Lexington	28	+16	44
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
8	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
9	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
10	Hartford Athletic	26	+3	39
11	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
12	Rhode Island	26	+10	38
13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	+1	38
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
15	Louisville City	26	+1	37
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	28	−7	36
18	Indy Eleven	27	0	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	26	−12	24
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14