Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Birmingham Legion prediction · USL Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pittsburgh Riverhounds are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 51%, draw 27%, Birmingham Legion 22%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Birmingham LegionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pittsburgh Riverhounds win51%

Draw27%

Birmingham Legion win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHighmark Stadium

RefereeM. Kaleia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Birmingham Legion

7Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

Last match: 21 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	+2	42
10	Birmingham Legion	29	−5	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pittsburgh riverhounds winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market49%

Us51%

~~Market~~49%

We make Pittsburgh Riverhounds a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Birmingham Legion~~1.42 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 42 v 30~~6 v 10

~~The market · Pittsburgh Riverhounds win~~49% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pittsburgh Riverhounds win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pittsburgh Riverhounds win	51%	49%	+2
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Birmingham Legion win	22%	23%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Both teams to score	42%	48%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−6
Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw	78%	77%	+1
Pittsburgh Riverhounds clean sheet	44%	–	–
Birmingham Legion clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 10.7 8.9 3.6 1 15.2 12.1 5.0 2 10.6 8.6 3.6 3 5.1 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pittsburgh Riverhounds down, Birmingham Legion across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,566 USL Championship matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 363 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Birmingham Legion away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Pittsburgh Riverhounds, 0.82 for Birmingham Legion. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BIR 1–0 PIT · BIR 1–1 PIT · PIT 2–0 BIR · PIT 1–1 BIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 6 Sept

PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS

DWLLWD2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

BIRMINGHAM LEGION

LWLWDW0–4 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	+24	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	+20	50
3	Detroit City	29	+13	50
4	Louisville City	29	+8	46
5	Rhode Island	29	+10	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	+2	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	+1	40
8	Miami FC	30	−10	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	−5	34
10	Birmingham Legion	29	−5	30
11	Loudoun United	29	−11	28
12	Brooklyn	29	−28	21
13	Sporting JAX	29	−44	14