Phoenix Rising v Lexington prediction · USL Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Phoenix RisingDrawLexington

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Phoenix Rising 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Phoenix Rising are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Phoenix Rising 42%, draw 24%, Lexington 34%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Phoenix Rising v LexingtonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Phoenix Rising win42%

Draw24%

Lexington win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueWild Horse Pass Stadium

RefereeN. Bensalah

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Phoenix Rising

Lexington

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lexington	29	+18	47
8	Phoenix Rising	29	−1	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · phoenix rising winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Phoenix Rising a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Phoenix Rising v Lexington~~1.62 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 39 v 47~~8 v 4

~~The market · Phoenix Rising win~~40% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Phoenix Rising win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Phoenix Rising win	42%	40%	+2
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Lexington win	34%	33%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	56%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	60%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	36%	+1
Phoenix Rising or draw	66%	67%	−1
Phoenix Rising clean sheet	24%	–	–
Lexington clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.8 7.0 4.9 2.3 1 7.8 10.7 7.7 3.7 2 6.2 8.7 6.2 3.0 3 3.4 4.7 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Phoenix Rising down, Lexington across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,568 USL Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 365 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Phoenix Rising at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lexington away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Phoenix Rising, 1.43 for Lexington. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~LEX 1–0 PHO · LEX 2–0 PHO · PHO 0–1 LEX

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 13 Sept

PHOENIX RISING

WLLLWW2–1 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 3–1

LEXINGTON

WWWWDW4–1 · 6–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 5–3

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	El Paso Locomotive	29	+11	50
2	New Mexico United	29	+10	49
3	Sacramento Republic	29	+13	48
4	Lexington	29	+18	47
5	Colorado Springs	29	+4	44
6	FC Tulsa	29	+5	43
7	San Antonio	29	+1	42
8	Phoenix Rising	29	−1	39
9	Orange County SC	29	−9	39
10	Oakland Roots	29	0	38
11	Las Vegas Lights	29	−6	36
12	Monterey Bay	29	−21	21