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Phoenix Rising v Las Vegas Lights

Phoenix Rising

3–2Full time

Las Vegas Lights

USL Championship · SUN 11 OCT · Wild Horse Pass Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 05:30

Phoenix Rising 3–2 Las Vegas Lights PHOENIX RISING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Phoenix Rising win~~52%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.346

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.363

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Phoenix Rising win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Phoenix Rising 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Phoenix Rising v Las Vegas Lights
2′Little has changed for our model: Phoenix Rising 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Phoenix Rising 1–0 Las Vegas Lights
27′I. Sacko scores for Phoenix Rising on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–7
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 47% now
28′I. Sacko scores for Phoenix Rising on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 47% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
31′We said Phoenix Rising at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–7
32′32′ and it is 2–0: G. Studenhofft on the scoresheet for Phoenix Rising. 2–0 · 93–5–1
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Phoenix Rising 2–0 Las Vegas Lights
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
36′32′ and it is 2–0: G. Studenhofft on the scoresheet for Phoenix Rising. 2–0 · 94–5–1
36′We said Phoenix Rising at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
38′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Phoenix Rising · On: L. Biasi · Off: D. Flores
40′We said Phoenix Rising at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
43′We said Phoenix Rising at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′We said Phoenix Rising at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′Phoenix Rising ahead on 45′ through G. Studenhofft. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Las Vegas Lights
45′⚽ GOAL · 54' Phoenix Rising 3–0 Las Vegas Lights
45′HALF-TIME Phoenix Rising 3–0 Las Vegas Lights
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Phoenix Rising win: 52% at kick-off, 99% now
46′SECOND HALF Phoenix Rising 3–0 Las Vegas Lights
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Phoenix Rising · On: C. Ambursley · Off: K. Arase
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Las Vegas Lights · On: M. Arteaga · Off: C. Locker
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Las Vegas Lights · On: N. Jones · Off: B. Ofeimu
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Phoenix Rising
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Phoenix Rising · On: D. Badji · Off: G. Studenhofft
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Las Vegas Lights · On: P. Leal · Off: K. Scott
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Phoenix Rising 3–1 Las Vegas Lights
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Las Vegas Lights · On: B. Pope · Off: J. Rodriguez
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Phoenix Rising · On: C. Smith · Off: T. Schmitt
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Phoenix Rising · On: A. Pelayo · Off: I. Sacko
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Phoenix Rising 3–2 Las Vegas Lights
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Phoenix Rising
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Phoenix Rising
FTFULL TIME Phoenix Rising 3–2 Las Vegas Lights
FTPhoenix Rising 3–2 Las Vegas Lights · Phoenix Rising win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Phoenix Rising win52%

Draw24%

Las Vegas Lights win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 03:00

VenueWild Horse Pass Stadium

RefereeE. Lezama

Line-ups

Phoenix Rising

Las Vegas Lights

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Phoenix Rising

Las Vegas Lights

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Phoenix Rising

Formation not confirmed

14 C. Odunze

28 K. Arase

4 P. Mar Boye

51 A. Essengue

87 D. Flores

13 J. Moursou

17 JP Scearce

7 I. Sacko

8 D. Gomez

48 T. Schmitt

11 G. Studenhofft

Coach · Pa-Modou Kah

Substitutes

1 · P. Rakovsky

20 · L. Biasi

47 · N. Cross

80 · A. Balanzar

70 · J. Torres

27 · C. Ambursley

23 · D. Badji

2 · C. Smith

24 · A. Pelayo

Las Vegas Lights

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Henry

6 N. Sessock

30 B. Ofeimu

33 A. Guillen

81 T. Antonoglou

8 K. Scott

27 G. Probo

18 C. Locker

11 C. Pinzon

25 O. Anderson

14 J. Rodriguez

Coach · Devin Rensing

Substitutes

13 · C. Lanphier

3 · N. Jones

45 · B. Pope

4 · C. Stretch

17 · P. Leal

23 · M. Ybarra

9 · M. Arteaga

Our number · phoenix rising winPublished 11 Oct 03:01

52% The market51%

Us52%

~~Market~~51%

We make Phoenix Rising a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · phoenix rising win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Phoenix Rising win	52%	51%	+1
Draw	24%	24%	0
Las Vegas Lights win	24%	25%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	60%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	61%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	39%	−8
Phoenix Rising or draw	76%	75%	+1
Phoenix Rising clean sheet	34%	–	–
Las Vegas Lights clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.1 6.7 3.6 1 10.5 11.1 6.1 2.3 2 8.8 9.5 5.2 3 5.1 5.5 3.0 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Phoenix Rising down, Las Vegas Lights across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,539 USL Championship matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 336 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 3.14 goals a meeting; 8 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Phoenix Rising at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Las Vegas Lights away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Phoenix Rising, 1.09 for Las Vegas Lights. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 14

~~Both scored~~9 of 14

~~Last meetings~~LAS 1–1 PHO · PHO 0–0 LAS · LAS 0–1 PHO · PHO 1–2 LAS

Form · last six in USL Championship

PHOENIX RISING

WDWLLL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2

LAS VEGAS LIGHTS

LLWDLW0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	+13	47
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	26	+21	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Lexington	28	+16	44
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
8	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
9	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
10	Hartford Athletic	26	+3	39
11	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
12	Rhode Island	26	+10	38
13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	+1	38
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
15	Louisville City	26	+1	37
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	28	−7	36
18	Indy Eleven	27	0	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	26	−12	24
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14