Orange County SC v Phoenix Rising prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 05:30

Orange County SC 1–3 Phoenix Rising ORANGE COUNTY SC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orange County SC win~~43%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.694

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.482

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orange County SC win at 43%.
2′KICK-OFF Orange County SC v Phoenix Rising
3′Much as we predicted: Orange County SC was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
12′Phoenix Rising ahead on 10′ through P. Mar Boye. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–22–58
12′⚽ GOAL · 10' Orange County SC 0–1 Phoenix Rising · P. Mar Boye (assist D. Gomez)
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Orange County SC win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Phoenix Rising win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Orange County SC win 20%)
13′We said Orange County SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–22–58
14′We said Orange County SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' N. Benalcazar · Orange County SC
20′I. Sacko scores for Phoenix Rising on 19′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 6–12–82
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Orange County SC 0–2 Phoenix Rising · I. Sacko
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Orange County SC win: 43% at kick-off, 6% now
21′We said Orange County SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–12–82
33′We said Orange County SC at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
37′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Orange County SC · On: B. Cambridge · Off: K. Partida
37′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Orange County SC · On: S. Kelly · Off: L. MacKinnon
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Orange County SC win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
45′HALF-TIME Orange County SC 0–2 Phoenix Rising
46′SECOND HALF Orange County SC 0–2 Phoenix Rising
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Orange County SC · On: J. Lindsey · Off: T. Espy
51′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–2 · 2–8–90
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' A. Essengue · Phoenix Rising
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' P. Mar Boye · Phoenix Rising
58′58′: I. Sacko on the scoresheet for Phoenix Rising, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Orange County SC 0–3 Phoenix Rising · I. Sacko
60′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
66′PENALTY MISSED · 66' O. Sylla · Orange County SC
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Orange County SC · On: J. Johnson · Off: M. Palomino
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Phoenix Rising · On: C. Smith · Off: K. Arase
76′Orange County SC pull one back on 76′ through Y. Bazini. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Orange County SC 1–3 Phoenix Rising · Y. Bazini
77′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–98
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' J. Moursou · Phoenix Rising
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Phoenix Rising · On: D. Badji · Off: G. Studenhofft
81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' C. Hegardt · Orange County SC
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' T. Schmitt · Phoenix Rising
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Orange County SC · On: M. Bunbury · Off: R. Doghman
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Phoenix Rising · On: A. Pelayo · Off: D. Gomez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Phoenix Rising · On: J. Torres · Off: L. Biasi
FTFULL TIME Orange County SC 1–3 Phoenix Rising
FTOrange County SC 1–3 Phoenix Rising · Orange County SC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Orange County SC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orange County SC 43%, draw 24%, Phoenix Rising 33%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Orange County SC v Phoenix RisingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Orange County SC win43%

Draw24%

Phoenix Rising win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueChampionship Soccer Stadium

RefereeM. Corrigan

Line-ups

Orange County SC

4-2-3-1

Phoenix Rising

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orange County SC

Phoenix Rising

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Orange County SC	28	−7	39
9	Phoenix Rising	28	−3	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Orange County SC

4-2-3-1

1 A. Rando

4 N. Benalcazar

5 T. Brewitt

15 T. Espy

23 R. Doghman

8 O. Sylla

18 M. Palomino

19 K. Partida

10 C. Hegardt

11 L. MacKinnon

12 Y. Bazini

Coach · Didier Crettenand

Substitutes

31 · T. Kadono

16 · J. Lindsey

6 · G. Tubbs

27 · S. Kelly

7 · S. Wathuta

25 · E. Solis

20 · M. Bunbury

14 · B. Cambridge

17 · J. Johnson

Phoenix Rising

4-2-3-1

14 C. Odunze

20 L. Biasi

4 P. Mar Boye

51 A. Essengue

48 T. Schmitt

13 J. Moursou

17 JP Scearce

28 K. Arase

8 D. Gomez

7 I. Sacko

11 G. Studenhofft

Coach · Pa-Modou Kah

Substitutes

1 · P. Rakovsky

24 · A. Pelayo

2 · C. Smith

23 · D. Badji

19 · D. Rivera

27 · C. Ambursley

70 · J. Torres

Our number · orange county sc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market31%

Us43%

~~Market~~31%

We make Orange County SC a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orange County SC v Phoenix Rising~~1.61 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 39 v 36~~7 v 9

~~The market · Orange County SC win~~31% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Orange County SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orange County SC win	43%	31%	+12
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Phoenix Rising win	33%	43%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	37%	−2
Orange County SC or draw	67%	57%	+10
Orange County SC clean sheet	26%	–	–
Phoenix Rising clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 7.2 4.8 2.2 1 8.4 11.0 7.6 3.5 2 6.6 8.8 6.0 2.8 3 3.5 4.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orange County SC down, Phoenix Rising across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,555 USL Championship matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 352 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orange County SC at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Phoenix Rising away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Orange County SC, 1.37 for Phoenix Rising. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 02:40. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PHO 2–1 ORA · ORA 1–1 PHO · PHO 1–1 ORA · ORA 4–1 PHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 6 Sept

ORANGE COUNTY SC

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

PHOENIX RISING

DWLLLW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	El Paso Locomotive	28	+12	50
2	New Mexico United	28	+11	49
3	Sacramento Republic	28	+12	45
4	Lexington	28	+16	44
5	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
6	Colorado Springs	28	+3	41
7	Orange County SC	28	−7	39
8	San Antonio	28	0	39
9	Phoenix Rising	28	−3	36
10	Las Vegas Lights	28	−4	36
11	Oakland Roots	28	−2	35
12	Monterey Bay	28	−20	21