Oakland Roots v San Antonio prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 05:30

Oakland Roots 0–0 San Antonio OAKLAND ROOTS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oakland Roots win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.783

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oakland Roots win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Oakland Roots was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–33
1′KICK-OFF Oakland Roots v San Antonio
2′Much as we predicted: Oakland Roots was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Oakland Roots
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Oakland Roots win 33%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' San Antonio
45′HALF-TIME Oakland Roots 0–0 San Antonio
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Oakland Roots win 31%)
46′SECOND HALF Oakland Roots 0–0 San Antonio
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' San Antonio
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Oakland Roots · On: K. Tingey · Off: M. Fisher
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Oakland Roots · On: K. Tingey · Off: M. Fisher
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' San Antonio · On: D. Pacheco · Off: L. Ricol
77′PENALTY MISSED · 77' San Antonio
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Oakland Roots · On: T. Lepley · Off: D. Trejo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Oakland Roots · On: B. Byaruhanga · Off: T. Gibson
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' San Antonio · On: S. Patino · Off: C. Parano
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' San Antonio · On: C. Calov · Off: N. Blanco
90′PENALTY MISSED · 97' Oakland Roots
90′🟨 YELLOW · 99' San Antonio
FTFULL TIME Oakland Roots 0–0 San Antonio
FTOakland Roots 0–0 San Antonio · Oakland Roots win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Oakland Roots win39%

Draw27%

San Antonio win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 03:00

VenueLaney College Football Stadium

RefereeC. May

Line-ups

Oakland Roots

San Antonio

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Oakland Roots

San Antonio

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Oakland Roots

Formation not confirmed

1 K. McIntosh

20 M. Fisher

34 M. Edwards

5 D. Garcia

11 J. de Vicente

12 T. Gibson

2 Bruno Lapa

4 T. McCabe

7 W. Prentice

9 P. Wilson

99 D. Trejo

Coach · Ryan Martin

Substitutes

32 · J. Escobar

23 · J. Bravo

15 · N. Hackshaw

17 · K. Tingey

6 · B. Byaruhanga

21 · T. Lepley

38 · E. Lopez

53 · G. Stone

27 · B. Jacquesson

San Antonio

Formation not confirmed

98 J. Batrouni

13 A. Ward

21 A. Crognale

43 Tiago

3 M. Taintor

4 N. Blanco

15 M. Maldonado

14 L. Berron

19 C. Parano

22 E. Cuello

77 L. Ricol

Coach · Carlos Llamosa

Substitutes

31 · D. Namani

17 · D. Barbir

6 · C. Calov

7 · L. Haakenson

9 · S. Patino

99 · C. Sorto

70 · D. Pacheco

Our number · oakland roots winPublished 11 Oct 03:01

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Oakland Roots a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · oakland roots win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oakland Roots win	39%	39%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
San Antonio win	34%	33%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Oakland Roots or draw	66%	67%	−1
Oakland Roots clean sheet	32%	–	–
San Antonio clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.8 10.3 5.9 2.3 1 11.3 12.6 7.4 2.9 2 7.1 8.1 4.7 3 3.1 3.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oakland Roots down, San Antonio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,539 USL Championship matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 336 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oakland Roots at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). San Antonio away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Oakland Roots, 1.16 for San Antonio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–1 OAK · SAN 1–2 OAK · OAK 1–2 SAN · OAK 0–1 SAN

Form · last six in USL Championship

OAKLAND ROOTS

WDLWWD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

SAN ANTONIO

WDLDDL2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	+13	47
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	26	+21	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Lexington	28	+16	44
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
8	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
9	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
10	Hartford Athletic	26	+3	39
11	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
12	Rhode Island	26	+10	38
13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	+1	38
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
15	Louisville City	26	+1	37
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	28	−7	36
18	Indy Eleven	27	0	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	26	−12	24
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14