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New Mexico United v Monterey Bay

New Mexico United

3–1Full time

Monterey Bay

USL Championship · SUN 11 OCT · Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:35

New Mexico United 3–1 Monterey Bay NEW MEXICO UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said New Mexico United win~~61%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.224

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.272

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said New Mexico United win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: New Mexico United 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–22–17
1′KICK-OFF New Mexico United v Monterey Bay
3′Little has changed for our model: New Mexico United 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–22–17
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' New Mexico United 1–0 Monterey Bay
23′20′ and it is 1–0: C. Dennis on the scoresheet for New Mexico United. 1–0 · 83–13–5
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' New Mexico United win: 61% at kick-off, 83% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' New Mexico United win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
24′20′ and it is 1–0: C. Dennis on the scoresheet for New Mexico United. 1–0 · 83–13–5
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' New Mexico United win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' New Mexico United win: 61% at kick-off, 83% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' New Mexico United win: 61% at kick-off, 83% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' New Mexico United win: 61% at kick-off, 83% now
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' New Mexico United 2–0 Monterey Bay
45′HALF-TIME New Mexico United 2–0 Monterey Bay
46′🟨 YELLOW · 31' D. Sanchez · New Mexico United
46′SECOND HALF New Mexico United 2–0 Monterey Bay
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Monterey Bay · On: R. Nakamura · Off: Q. Elliot Corrected
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' New Mexico United 3–0 Monterey Bay
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' New Mexico United 3–1 Monterey Bay
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Monterey Bay
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Monterey Bay
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' New Mexico United · On: C. Wilkerson · Off: V. Noel
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Monterey Bay · On: Jacob Montes · Off: N. Ross
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' New Mexico United · On: J. Melto Quiah · Off: C. Dennis
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' New Mexico United · On: J. Rennicks · Off: G. Hurst
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Monterey Bay · On: F. Canete · Off: F. Barajas
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Monterey Bay · On: D. Otoya · Off: I. Paul
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' New Mexico United · On: C. Nava · Off: N. Reid-Stephen
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' New Mexico United · On: J. LaCava · Off: C. Gloster
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Monterey Bay · On: E. Blancas · Off: J. Garcia
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Monterey Bay
FTFULL TIME New Mexico United 3–1 Monterey Bay
FTNew Mexico United 3–1 Monterey Bay · New Mexico United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

New Mexico United win61%

Draw21%

Monterey Bay win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 02:00

Venue · Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park

Referee · C. Hernandez

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

New Mexico United

Formation not confirmed

13 K. Shakes

2 N. Hamalainen

4 K. Keller

24 T. Blackett

3 C. Gloster

15 O. Jabang

19 Z. Bailey

21 V. Noel

14 C. Dennis

7 N. Reid-Stephen

10 G. Hurst

Coach · Dennis Sanchez

Substitutes

29 · L. Archimede

17 · J. LaCava

11 · C. Nava

33 · A. Pannenberg

31 · J. Melto Quiah

9 · J. Rennicks

28 · C. Wilkerson

Monterey Bay

Formation not confirmed

98 J. Jackson

22 J. Garcia

25 K. Egwu

32 Z. Farnsworth

3 S. Ritchie

4 N. Ross

47 Q. Elliot

15 F. Barajas

88 S. Lletget

11 W. Leggett

20 I. Paul

Coach · Alex Covelo

Substitutes

23 · E. Blancas

10 · F. Canete

16 · Jacob Montes

5 · N. Gordon

1 · F. Delgado

21 · D. Otoya

14 · R. Nakamura

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

New Mexico United

Formation not confirmed

13 K. Shakes

2 N. Hamalainen

4 K. Keller

24 T. Blackett

3 C. Gloster

15 O. Jabang

19 Z. Bailey

21 V. Noel

14 C. Dennis

7 N. Reid-Stephen

10 G. Hurst

Coach · Dennis Sanchez

Substitutes

29 · L. Archimede

17 · J. LaCava

11 · C. Nava

33 · A. Pannenberg

31 · J. Melto Quiah

9 · J. Rennicks

28 · C. Wilkerson

Monterey Bay

Formation not confirmed

98 J. Jackson

22 J. Garcia

25 K. Egwu

32 Z. Farnsworth

3 S. Ritchie

4 N. Ross

47 Q. Elliot

15 F. Barajas

88 S. Lletget

11 W. Leggett

20 I. Paul

Coach · Alex Covelo

Substitutes

23 · E. Blancas

10 · F. Canete

16 · Jacob Montes

5 · N. Gordon

1 · F. Delgado

21 · D. Otoya

14 · R. Nakamura

Our number · new mexico united winPublished 11 Oct 02:00

61% The market57%

Us61%

~~Market~~57%

We make New Mexico United a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · new mexico united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
New Mexico United win	61%	57%	+4
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Monterey Bay win	17%	20%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	62%	−7
Both teams to score	51%	60%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	41%	−9
New Mexico United or draw	83%	80%	+3
New Mexico United clean sheet	40%	–	–
Monterey Bay clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 5.8 5.4 2.4 1 11.3 10.0 4.6 2 10.8 9.7 4.4 3 7.0 6.3 2.9 4 3.5 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+New Mexico United down, Monterey Bay across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,539 USL Championship matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 336 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.22 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

New Mexico United at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Monterey Bay away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for New Mexico United, 0.91 for Monterey Bay. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.22

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~MON 2–5 NEW · MON 1–1 NEW · NEW 1–0 MON · NEW 3–2 MON

Form · last six in USL Championship

NEW MEXICO UNITED

DDDLLW2–2 · 4–4 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

MONTEREY BAY

LDDLLW1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	+13	47
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	26	+21	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Lexington	28	+16	44
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
8	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
9	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
10	Hartford Athletic	26	+3	39
11	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
12	Rhode Island	26	+10	38
13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	+1	38
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
15	Louisville City	26	+1	37
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	28	−7	36
18	Indy Eleven	27	0	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	26	−12	24
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14