Monterey Bay v Las Vegas Lights prediction · USL Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Monterey BayDrawLas Vegas Lights

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Monterey Bay 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Monterey Bay just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Monterey Bay 39%, draw 26%, Las Vegas Lights 35%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Monterey Bay v Las Vegas LightsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Monterey Bay win39%

Draw26%

Las Vegas Lights win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueCardinale Stadium

RefereeB. Frey

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monterey Bay

Las Vegas Lights

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Las Vegas Lights	29	−6	36
12	Monterey Bay	29	−21	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · monterey bay winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Monterey Bay a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monterey Bay v Las Vegas Lights~~1.37 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 36~~12 v 11

~~The market · Monterey Bay win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monterey Bay win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monterey Bay win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Las Vegas Lights win	35%	38%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	61%	−12
Both teams to score	53%	64%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	74%	82%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	27%	41%	−14
Monterey Bay or draw	65%	62%	+3
Monterey Bay clean sheet	28%	–	–
Las Vegas Lights clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.2 9.2 5.8 2.5 1 9.9 12.1 7.8 3.3 2 6.7 8.3 5.3 2.3 3 3.1 3.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monterey Bay down, Las Vegas Lights across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,566 USL Championship matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 363 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monterey Bay at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Las Vegas Lights away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Monterey Bay, 1.27 for Las Vegas Lights. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 2–3 LAS · LAS 1–0 MON · MON 1–1 LAS · LAS 2–0 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 6 Sept

MONTEREY BAY

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

LAS VEGAS LIGHTS

WDLWLL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 3–5

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	El Paso Locomotive	29	+11	50
2	New Mexico United	29	+10	49
3	Sacramento Republic	29	+13	48
4	Lexington	29	+18	47
5	Colorado Springs	29	+4	44
6	FC Tulsa	29	+5	43
7	San Antonio	29	+1	42
8	Phoenix Rising	29	−1	39
9	Orange County SC	29	−9	39
10	Oakland Roots	29	0	38
11	Las Vegas Lights	29	−6	36
12	Monterey Bay	29	−21	21