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Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs

Monterey Bay
0–1Full time
Colorado Springs

USL Championship · SUN 18 OCT · Cardinale Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 05:30
Monterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs COLORADO SPRINGS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Colorado Springs win43%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.497
The market’s Brier score0.215

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Colorado Springs win at 43%.
  2. 3′KICK-OFF Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs
  3. 4′Little has changed for our model: Colorado Springs 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
  4. 31′28′: J. Tejada on the scoresheet for Colorado Springs, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
  5. 31′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 9–20–71
  6. 31′⚽ GOAL · 28' Monterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs · J. Tejada (assist I. Foster)
  7. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Colorado Springs win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
  8. 33′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–71
  9. 35′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Colorado Springs · On: A. Rocha · Off: I. Foster
  10. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Judson · Monterey Bay
  11. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Colorado Springs win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Monterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Monterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs
  14. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Monterey Bay · On: Jacob Montes · Off: Judson
  15. 54′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 5–19–76
  16. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Monterey Bay · On: D. Otoya · Off: O. Glasgow Corrected
  17. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Monterey Bay · On: D. Otoya · Off: W. Leggett
  18. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Colorado Springs · On: T. Magee · Off: F. Daroma
  19. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Colorado Springs · On: S. Masereka · Off: B. Jamison
  20. 65′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  21. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Colorado Springs · On: G. Metusala · Off: P. Burner
  22. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Colorado Springs · On: K. Bennett · Off: A. Perez
  23. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Colorado Springs win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  24. 75′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
  25. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Monterey Bay · On: F. Canete · Off: N. Ross
  26. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' S. Williams · Colorado Springs
  27. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' O. Glasgow · Monterey Bay
  28. 81′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  29. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Monterey Bay · On: E. Blancas · Off: F. Barajas
  30. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Colorado Springs win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  31. 87′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  32. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' D. Otoya · Monterey Bay
  33. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' C. Herrera · Colorado Springs
  34. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' T. Maples · Colorado Springs
  35. FTFULL TIME Monterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs
  36. FTMonterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs · Colorado Springs win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colorado Springs are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Monterey Bay 32%, draw 26%, Colorado Springs 43%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Monterey Bay v Colorado SpringsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Monterey Bay win32%
Draw26%
Colorado Springs win43%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueCardinale Stadium

RefereeA. Hadzic

Line-ups

Monterey Bay

4-2-3-1

Colorado Springs

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monterey Bay

Colorado Springs

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship

Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · USL Championship

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Colorado Springs28+341
12Monterey Bay28−2021

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Monterey Bay

4-2-3-1

98 J. Jackson

17 O. Glasgow

47 Q. Elliot

25 K. Egwu

3 S. Ritchie

4 N. Ross

93 Judson

15 F. Barajas

88 S. Lletget

11 W. Leggett

20 I. Paul

Coach · Alex Covelo

Substitutes

1 · F. Delgado

23 · E. Blancas

10 · F. Canete

18 · J. Belmar

16 · Jacob Montes

14 · R. Nakamura

30 · A. Villasana

26 · J. Pakbaz

21 · D. Otoya

Colorado Springs

3-4-1-2

1 C. Herrera

24 T. Maples

5 M. Mahoney

12 I. Foster

97 P. Burner

8 F. Daroma

6 S. Williams

11 B. Jamison

27 J. Tejada

10 A. Perez

37 B. Creek

Coach · Alan McCann

Substitutes

22 · C. Shutler

23 · G. Metusala

21 · T. Magee

18 · A. Rocha

7 · J. Fjeldberg

90 · K. Bennett

17 · S. Masereka

Our number · colorado springs winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
43% The market62%
Us43%
Market62%

We make Colorado Springs a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs1.21 – 1.44
Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 30 AugW1 D2 L3 · W2 D4 L0
Table places · points 21 v 4112 v 6
The market · Colorado Springs win62% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60%65% 12 OCT 04:0618 OCT 02:46
Our probability · Colorado Springs win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Monterey Bay win32%17%+15
Draw26%21%+5
Colorado Springs win43%62%−19
Over 2.5 goals49%58%−9
Both teams to score53%54%−1
Over 1.5 goals74%78%−4
Over 3.5 goals27%37%−10
Monterey Bay or draw57%38%+19
Monterey Bay clean sheet24%––
Colorado Springs clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 7.2 10.4 7.3 3.6 1 8.7 12.1 8.7 4.2 2 5.2 7.3 5.2 2.5 3 2.1 3.0 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Monterey Bay down, Colorado Springs across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.56 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsCOL 4–1 MON · COL 2–1 MON · MON 2–1 COL · MON 0–1 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 30 Aug

MONTEREY BAY

DDLLWL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3

COLORADO SPRINGS

WWDDDD5–4 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · USL Championship
#TEAMPGDPTS
1El Paso Locomotive28+1250
2New Mexico United28+1149
3Sacramento Republic28+1245
4Lexington28+1644
5FC Tulsa28+743
6Colorado Springs28+341
7Orange County SC28−739
8San Antonio28039
9Phoenix Rising28−336
10Las Vegas Lights28−436
11Oakland Roots28−235
12Monterey Bay28−2021

The competition's standings before kick-off.