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Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs
Monterey Bay
Colorado SpringsUSL Championship · SUN 18 OCT · Cardinale Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Colorado Springs win at 43%.
- 3′KICK-OFF Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs
- 4′Little has changed for our model: Colorado Springs 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
- 31′28′: J. Tejada on the scoresheet for Colorado Springs, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
- 31′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 9–20–71
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 28' Monterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs · J. Tejada (assist I. Foster)
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Colorado Springs win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
- 33′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–71
- 35′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Colorado Springs · On: A. Rocha · Off: I. Foster
- 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Judson · Monterey Bay
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Colorado Springs win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Monterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs
- 46′SECOND HALF Monterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Monterey Bay · On: Jacob Montes · Off: Judson
- 54′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 5–19–76
- 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Monterey Bay · On: D. Otoya · Off: O. Glasgow Corrected
- 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Monterey Bay · On: D. Otoya · Off: W. Leggett
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Colorado Springs · On: T. Magee · Off: F. Daroma
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Colorado Springs · On: S. Masereka · Off: B. Jamison
- 65′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Colorado Springs · On: G. Metusala · Off: P. Burner
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Colorado Springs · On: K. Bennett · Off: A. Perez
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Colorado Springs win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
- 75′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Monterey Bay · On: F. Canete · Off: N. Ross
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' S. Williams · Colorado Springs
- 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' O. Glasgow · Monterey Bay
- 81′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Monterey Bay · On: E. Blancas · Off: F. Barajas
- 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Colorado Springs win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
- 87′We said Colorado Springs at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
- 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' D. Otoya · Monterey Bay
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' C. Herrera · Colorado Springs
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' T. Maples · Colorado Springs
- FTFULL TIME Monterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs
- FTMonterey Bay 0–1 Colorado Springs · Colorado Springs win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Colorado Springs are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Monterey Bay 32%, draw 26%, Colorado Springs 43%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Monterey Bay win32%
Colorado Springs win43%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:00
RoundGroup stage
VenueCardinale Stadium
RefereeA. Hadzic
Match timeline
All events
Monterey BayMIN
Colorado SpringsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Monterey Bay
4-2-3-1
Colorado Springs
3-4-1-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Monterey Bay
Colorado Springs
Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship
Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Monterey Bay
4-2-3-1
98 J. Jackson
17 O. Glasgow
47 Q. Elliot
25 K. Egwu
3 S. Ritchie
4 N. Ross
93 Judson
15 F. Barajas
88 S. Lletget
11 W. Leggett
20 I. Paul
Coach · Alex Covelo
Substitutes
1 · F. Delgado
23 · E. Blancas
10 · F. Canete
18 · J. Belmar
16 · Jacob Montes
14 · R. Nakamura
30 · A. Villasana
26 · J. Pakbaz
21 · D. Otoya
Colorado Springs
3-4-1-2
1 C. Herrera
24 T. Maples
5 M. Mahoney
12 I. Foster
97 P. Burner
8 F. Daroma
6 S. Williams
11 B. Jamison
27 J. Tejada
10 A. Perez
37 B. Creek
Coach · Alan McCann
Substitutes
22 · C. Shutler
23 · G. Metusala
21 · T. Magee
18 · A. Rocha
7 · J. Fjeldberg
90 · K. Bennett
17 · S. Masereka
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Monterey Bay
4-2-3-1
98 J. Jackson
17 O. Glasgow
47 Q. Elliot
25 K. Egwu
3 S. Ritchie
4 N. Ross
93 Judson
15 F. Barajas
88 S. Lletget
11 W. Leggett
20 I. Paul
Coach · Alex Covelo
Substitutes
1 · F. Delgado
23 · E. Blancas
10 · F. Canete
18 · J. Belmar
16 · Jacob Montes
14 · R. Nakamura
30 · A. Villasana
26 · J. Pakbaz
21 · D. Otoya
Colorado Springs
3-4-1-2
1 C. Herrera
24 T. Maples
5 M. Mahoney
12 I. Foster
97 P. Burner
8 F. Daroma
6 S. Williams
11 B. Jamison
27 J. Tejada
10 A. Perez
37 B. Creek
Coach · Alan McCann
Substitutes
22 · C. Shutler
23 · G. Metusala
21 · T. Magee
18 · A. Rocha
7 · J. Fjeldberg
90 · K. Bennett
17 · S. Masereka
We make Colorado Springs a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monterey Bay win | 32% | 17% | +15 |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | +5 |
| Colorado Springs win | 43% | 62% | −19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 58% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 37% | −10 |
| Monterey Bay or draw | 57% | 38% | +19 |
| Monterey Bay clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
| Colorado Springs clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 30 Aug
MONTEREY BAY
COLORADO SPRINGS
The table
2026 · USL Championship| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 28 | +12 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 28 | +11 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | +12 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | +16 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | +7 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 28 | +3 | 41 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | −7 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 28 | 0 | 39 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | −3 | 36 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | −4 | 36 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | −2 | 35 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | −20 | 21 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
El Paso Locomotive
New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
Lexington
FC Tulsa
Orange County SC
San Antonio
Phoenix Rising
Las Vegas Lights
Oakland Roots