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Miami FC v Loudoun United

Miami FC

0–2Full time

Loudoun United

USL Championship · SUN 11 OCT · Riccardo Silva Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:30

Miami FC 0–2 Loudoun United MIAMI FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Miami FC win~~44%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.711

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.905

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Miami FC win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Miami FC v Loudoun United
2′Much as we predicted: Miami FC was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–32
3′Much as we predicted: Miami FC was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
27′Much as we predicted: Miami FC was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
28′Much as we predicted: Miami FC was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Rocha · Miami FC
45′HALF-TIME Miami FC 0–0 Loudoun United
46′SECOND HALF Miami FC 0–0 Loudoun United
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Miami FC · On: Tulu · Off: B. Ndiaye Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Miami FC · On: G. Diaz · Off: D. Mello
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Loudoun United · On: P. Santos · Off: G. Lomtadze
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Miami FC · On: J. Medranda · Off: R. Tori
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' A. Milesi · Miami FC
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Loudoun United · On: L. Butts · Off: A. Watts
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Miami FC 0–1 Loudoun United · E. Davis III
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Loudoun United · On: P. Niyongabire · Off: K. Awuah
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Miami FC · On: M. Mlekus · Off: M. Romero
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' M. Tunbridge · Miami FC
90′⚽ GOAL · 97' Miami FC 0–2 Loudoun United · E. Davis III
FTFULL TIME Miami FC 0–2 Loudoun United
FTMiami FC 0–2 Loudoun United · Miami FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Miami FC win44%

Draw24%

Loudoun United win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Riccardo Silva Stadium

Referee · J. Escobar

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Miami FC

Formation not confirmed

31 F. Rodriguez

12 B. Ndiaye

14 A. Rogers

13 D. Knutson

21 A. Milesi

8 M. Romero

5 R. Tori

22 R. Da Costa

7 M. Tunbridge

26 A. Rocha

37 D. Mello

Coach · Gaston Maddoni

Substitutes

41 · J. Rodriguez

6 · Tulu

2 · H. Al Zubaidi

4 · A. Calfo

47 · M. Mlekus

17 · J. Levin

23 · T. Musto

16 · G. Diaz

30 · J. Medranda

Loudoun United

Formation not confirmed

41 E. Bandre

33 L. Piras

2 N. Adnan

5 S. Mazzaferro

6 K. Awuah

8 J. Murphy

28 R. Zouhir

18 G. Lomtadze

23 A. Watts

11 A. Aboukoura

9 E. Davis III

Coach · Anthony Limbrick

Substitutes

31 · P. Donovan

38 · L. Barrus

10 · P. Santos

7 · P. Niyongabire

17 · L. Butts

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Miami FC

Formation not confirmed

31 F. Rodriguez

12 B. Ndiaye

14 A. Rogers

13 D. Knutson

21 A. Milesi

8 M. Romero

5 R. Tori

22 R. Da Costa

7 M. Tunbridge

26 A. Rocha

37 D. Mello

Coach · Gaston Maddoni

Substitutes

41 · J. Rodriguez

6 · Tulu

2 · H. Al Zubaidi

4 · A. Calfo

47 · M. Mlekus

17 · J. Levin

23 · T. Musto

16 · G. Diaz

30 · J. Medranda

Loudoun United

Formation not confirmed

41 E. Bandre

33 L. Piras

2 N. Adnan

5 S. Mazzaferro

6 K. Awuah

8 J. Murphy

28 R. Zouhir

18 G. Lomtadze

23 A. Watts

11 A. Aboukoura

9 E. Davis III

Coach · Anthony Limbrick

Substitutes

31 · P. Donovan

38 · L. Barrus

10 · P. Santos

7 · P. Niyongabire

17 · L. Butts

Our number · miami fc winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

44% The market53%

Us44%

~~Market~~53%

We make Miami FC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Miami FC win	44%	53%	−9
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Loudoun United win	32%	24%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	56%	66%	−10
Both teams to score	58%	65%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	84%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	34%	46%	−12
Miami FC or draw	68%	76%	−8
Miami FC clean sheet	27%	–	–
Loudoun United clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 7.3 4.8 2.1 1 8.7 11.1 7.4 3.3 2 6.8 8.9 5.9 2.6 3 3.7 4.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Miami FC down, Loudoun United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,539 USL Championship matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 336 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.46 goals a meeting; 11 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Miami FC at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Loudoun United away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Miami FC, 1.33 for Loudoun United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.46

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 13

~~Both scored~~11 of 13

~~Last meetings~~LOU 0–0 MIA · LOU 3–1 MIA · MIA 2–1 LOU · LOU 4–1 MIA

Form · last six in USL Championship

MIAMI FC

DDWWWW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–1

LOUDOUN UNITED

LLLLWD1–4 · 4–5 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	+13	47
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	26	+21	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Lexington	28	+16	44
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
8	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
9	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
10	Hartford Athletic	26	+3	39
11	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
12	Rhode Island	26	+10	38
13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	+1	38
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
15	Louisville City	26	+1	37
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	28	−7	36
18	Indy Eleven	27	0	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	26	−12	24
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14