Miami FC v Charleston Battery prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30

Miami FC 1–2 Charleston Battery CHARLESTON BATTERY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Charleston Battery win~~54%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.322

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.473

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Charleston Battery win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Charleston Battery was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 24–22–53
1′KICK-OFF Miami FC v Charleston Battery
27′H. Al Zubaidi scores for Miami FC on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 52–25–23
27′⚽ GOAL · 25' Miami FC 1–0 Charleston Battery · H. Al Zubaidi (assist J. Sonora)
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Charleston Battery win: 54% at kick-off, 23% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Miami FC win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Charleston Battery win 23%)
30′We said Charleston Battery at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 53–25–22
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 53–25–22
38′We said Charleston Battery at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–26–19
45′HALF-TIME Miami FC 1–0 Charleston Battery
46′SECOND HALF Miami FC 1–0 Charleston Battery
52′We said Charleston Battery at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 60–26–13
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Charleston Battery win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Charleston Battery · On: M. Foster · Off: L. Blackstock
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Charleston Battery · On: J. Akpunonu · Off: S. Suber
61′We said Charleston Battery at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 65–25–9
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Charleston Battery · On: C. Swan · Off: C. A. Sanchez Gonzalez
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Charleston Battery · On: E. Ycaza · Off: L. Kissiedou
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Miami FC · On: Tulu · Off: B. Ndiaye
73′We said Charleston Battery at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Charleston Battery win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
75′74′: C. Swan on the scoresheet for Charleston Battery, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 14–63–23
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Miami FC 1–1 Charleston Battery · C. Swan (assist M. Foster)
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Charleston Battery win: 54% at kick-off, 23% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Miami FC win 14%)
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Miami FC · On: T. Musto · Off: M. Tunbridge
80′Charleston Battery ahead on 77′ through M. Berry. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–90
80′⚽ GOAL · 77' Miami FC 1–2 Charleston Battery · M. Berry
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Charleston Battery win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Charleston Battery win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 10%)
81′We published Charleston Battery at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Miami FC · On: C. D. Milanes Navarro · Off: M. Romero
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Charleston Battery · On: A. Cabrera · Off: J. Kelly
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Charleston Battery win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
87′We published Charleston Battery at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' M. Tunbridge · Miami FC
FTFULL TIME Miami FC 1–2 Charleston Battery
FTMiami FC 1–2 Charleston Battery · Charleston Battery win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Charleston Battery are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Miami FC 24%, draw 22%, Charleston Battery 54%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Miami FC v Charleston BatteryBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Miami FC win24%

Draw22%

Charleston Battery win54%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueRiccardo Silva Stadium

RefereeE. Garcia

Line-ups

Miami FC

Charleston Battery

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Miami FC

Charleston Battery

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship

Last match: 15 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Charleston Battery	28	+19	47
8	Miami FC	29	−9	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Miami FC

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Room

12 B. Ndiaye

14 A. Rogers

13 D. Knutson

2 H. Al Zubaidi

8 M. Romero

5 R. Tori

22 R. Da Costa

7 M. Tunbridge

26 A. Rocha

9 J. Sonora

Coach · Gaston Maddoni

Substitutes

31 · F. Rodriguez

6 · Tulu

4 · A. Calfo

47 · M. Mlekus

24 · C. D. Milanes Navarro

23 · T. Musto

30 · J. Medranda

46 · J. White

37 · D. Mello

Charleston Battery

Formation not confirmed

56 L. Zamudio

42 D. Martinez

16 G. Smith

5 S. Suber

3 N. Messer

10 L. Kissiedou

4 C. Allan

7 L. Blackstock

90 M. Berry

29 J. Kelly

9 C. A. Sanchez Gonzalez

Coach · Ben Pirmann

Substitutes

1 · J. Berner

22 · J. Akpunonu

8 · E. Ycaza

91 · N. Houssou

99 · M. Foster

13 · A. Cabrera

30 · C. Swan

Our number · charleston battery winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market44%

Us54%

~~Market~~44%

We make Charleston Battery a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Miami FC v Charleston Battery~~1.22 – 1.92

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 2 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 36 v 47~~8 v 3

~~The market · Charleston Battery win~~44% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Charleston Battery win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Miami FC win	24%	31%	−7
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Charleston Battery win	54%	44%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	60%	61%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Miami FC or draw	46%	56%	−10
Miami FC clean sheet	15%	–	–
Charleston Battery clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.4 8.5 8.0 5.1 2.5 1 5.5 10.0 9.5 6.1 3.0 2 3.3 6.1 5.8 3.7 3 2.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Miami FC down, Charleston Battery across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 USL Championship matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 349 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Miami FC at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Charleston Battery away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Miami FC, 1.92 for Charleston Battery. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHA 5–0 MIA · CHA 3–0 MIA · MIA 1–0 CHA · CHA 2–0 MIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 2 Sept

MIAMI FC

DWWWWL1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

CHARLESTON BATTERY

LDWWLD1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	+23	55
2	Detroit City	28	+14	50
3	Charleston Battery	28	+19	47
4	Rhode Island	28	+10	41
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	+2	41
6	Louisville City	27	+3	40
7	Hartford Athletic	28	+2	40
8	Miami FC	29	−9	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	−2	34
10	Loudoun United	28	−11	27
11	Birmingham Legion	27	−6	26
12	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
13	Sporting JAX	28	−42	14