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Louisville City v Indy Eleven

Louisville City
4–1Full time
Indy Eleven

USL Championship · SUN 18 OCT · Lynn Family Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30
Louisville City 4–1 Indy Eleven LOUISVILLE CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Louisville City win62%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.222
The market’s Brier score0.301

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Louisville City win at 62%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Louisville City 62% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Louisville City v Indy Eleven
  4. 8′Louisville City ahead on 7′ through R. Serrano. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–6
  5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Louisville City 1–0 Indy Eleven · R. Serrano (assist C. Donovan)
  6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Louisville City win: 62% at kick-off, 81% now
  7. 10′We said Louisville City at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–6
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–5
  9. 33′K. Lambert scores for Louisville City on 33′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  10. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Louisville City 2–0 Indy Eleven · K. Lambert
  11. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Louisville City win: 62% at kick-off, 95% now
  12. 34′We said Louisville City at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 43′43′: R. Serrano on the scoresheet for Louisville City, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  14. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Louisville City 3–0 Indy Eleven · R. Serrano (assist C. Donovan)
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Louisville City 3–0 Indy Eleven
  16. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Indy Eleven · On: L. Mesanvi · Off: E. Kizza
  17. 48′SECOND HALF Louisville City 3–0 Indy Eleven
  18. 51′Louisville City ahead on 51′ through R. Serrano. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 51′We said Louisville City at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Louisville City 4–0 Indy Eleven · R. Serrano
  21. 55′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 53' J. Hafferty · Indy Eleven
  23. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Q. Huerman · Louisville City
  24. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Indy Eleven · On: H. Barry · Off: A. Mitrano
  25. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Louisville City · On: S. Totsch · Off: K. Lambert
  26. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Louisville City · On: M. Akale · Off: Q. Huerman
  27. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Indy Eleven · On: M. Henry-Scott · Off: C. Lindley
  28. 72′M. Rasheed scores for Indy Eleven on 72′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  29. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Louisville City 4–1 Indy Eleven · M. Rasheed
  30. 76′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' S. Totsch · Louisville City
  32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Indy Eleven · On: P. Craig · Off: A. Quinn
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Indy Eleven · On: D. Sing · Off: B. Rendon
  34. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Louisville City · On: E. Davila · Off: B. Niang
  35. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Louisville City · On: B. Dayes · Off: E. Perez
  36. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Louisville City · On: C. Conley · Off: C. Donovan
  37. FTFULL TIME Louisville City 4–1 Indy Eleven
  38. FTLouisville City 4–1 Indy Eleven · Louisville City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Louisville City are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Louisville City 62%, draw 20%, Indy Eleven 18%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Louisville City v Indy ElevenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Louisville City win62%
Draw20%
Indy Eleven win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueLynn Family Stadium

RefereeJ. Surgan

Line-ups

Louisville City

Indy Eleven

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Louisville City

Indy Eleven

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · USL Championship

Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · USL Championship

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Louisville City27+340
9Indy Eleven28−234

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Louisville City

Formation not confirmed

29 R. Schewe

2 A. McFadden

31 K. Lambert

32 K. Adams

15 E. Perez

8 T. Davila

19 B. Niang

13 A. Dia

21 Q. Huerman

9 C. Donovan

7 R. Serrano

Coach · Simon Bird

Substitutes

30 · R. Troutman

3 · J. Morris

4 · S. Totsch

23 · S. Gleadle

5 · B. Dayes

27 · E. Davila

14 · T. Showunmi

47 · M. Akale

99 · C. Conley

Indy Eleven

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Dick

21 M. Rasheed

4 A. Herbert

36 N. Kibunguchy

29 A. Mitrano

13 J. Hafferty

5 J. O'Brien

6 C. Lindley

14 A. Quinn

27 B. Rendon

19 E. Kizza

Coach · Sean McAuley

Substitutes

23 · R. Charles-Cook

37 · P. Craig

39 · H. Barry

90 · L. Mesanvi

20 · D. Sing

15 · M. Henry-Scott

Our number · louisville city winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
62% The market55%
Us62%
Market55%

We make Louisville City a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Louisville City v Indy Eleven2.13 – 1.06
Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 30 AugW2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 40 v 346 v 9
The market · Louisville City win55% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Louisville City win62%55%+7
Draw20%23%−3
Indy Eleven win18%21%−3
Over 2.5 goals61%60%+1
Both teams to score57%59%−2
Over 1.5 goals82%80%+2
Over 3.5 goals39%39%0
Louisville City or draw82%79%+3
Louisville City clean sheet35%––
Indy Eleven clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%
0123450 4.2 4.6 2.4 1 8.9 9.2 4.9 2 9.3 9.7 5.1 3 6.5 6.8 3.6 4 3.5 3.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Louisville City down, Indy Eleven across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsIND 2–1 LOU · LOU 2–0 IND · IND 1–3 LOU · IND 2–2 LOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 30 Aug

LOUISVILLE CITY

DDLWDW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

INDY ELEVEN

WLLLDL4–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026 · USL Championship
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tampa Bay Rowdies28+2355
2Detroit City28+1450
3Charleston Battery28+1947
4Rhode Island28+1041
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds28+241
6Louisville City27+340
7Hartford Athletic28+240
8Miami FC29−936
9Indy Eleven28−234
10Loudoun United28−1127
11Birmingham Legion27−626
12Brooklyn27−2818
13Sporting JAX28−4214

The competition's standings before kick-off.