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Louisville City v Indy Eleven
Louisville City
Indy ElevenUSL Championship · SUN 18 OCT · Lynn Family Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Louisville City win at 62%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Louisville City 62% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–18
- 1′KICK-OFF Louisville City v Indy Eleven
- 8′Louisville City ahead on 7′ through R. Serrano. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–6
- 8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Louisville City 1–0 Indy Eleven · R. Serrano (assist C. Donovan)
- 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Louisville City win: 62% at kick-off, 81% now
- 10′We said Louisville City at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–6
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–5
- 33′K. Lambert scores for Louisville City on 33′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Louisville City 2–0 Indy Eleven · K. Lambert
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Louisville City win: 62% at kick-off, 95% now
- 34′We said Louisville City at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 43′43′: R. Serrano on the scoresheet for Louisville City, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Louisville City 3–0 Indy Eleven · R. Serrano (assist C. Donovan)
- 45′HALF-TIME Louisville City 3–0 Indy Eleven
- 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Indy Eleven · On: L. Mesanvi · Off: E. Kizza
- 48′SECOND HALF Louisville City 3–0 Indy Eleven
- 51′Louisville City ahead on 51′ through R. Serrano. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 51′We said Louisville City at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Louisville City 4–0 Indy Eleven · R. Serrano
- 55′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 55′🟨 YELLOW · 53' J. Hafferty · Indy Eleven
- 55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Q. Huerman · Louisville City
- 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Indy Eleven · On: H. Barry · Off: A. Mitrano
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Louisville City · On: S. Totsch · Off: K. Lambert
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Louisville City · On: M. Akale · Off: Q. Huerman
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Indy Eleven · On: M. Henry-Scott · Off: C. Lindley
- 72′M. Rasheed scores for Indy Eleven on 72′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Louisville City 4–1 Indy Eleven · M. Rasheed
- 76′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' S. Totsch · Louisville City
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Indy Eleven · On: P. Craig · Off: A. Quinn
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Indy Eleven · On: D. Sing · Off: B. Rendon
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Louisville City · On: E. Davila · Off: B. Niang
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Louisville City · On: B. Dayes · Off: E. Perez
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Louisville City · On: C. Conley · Off: C. Donovan
- FTFULL TIME Louisville City 4–1 Indy Eleven
- FTLouisville City 4–1 Indy Eleven · Louisville City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Louisville City are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Louisville City 62%, draw 20%, Indy Eleven 18%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Louisville City win62%
Indy Eleven win18%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00
RoundGroup stage
VenueLynn Family Stadium
RefereeJ. Surgan
Match timeline
All events
Louisville CityMIN
Indy ElevenEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Louisville City
Indy Eleven
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Louisville City
Indy Eleven
Last match: 10 Oct · USL Championship
Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Louisville City
Formation not confirmed
29 R. Schewe
2 A. McFadden
31 K. Lambert
32 K. Adams
15 E. Perez
8 T. Davila
19 B. Niang
13 A. Dia
21 Q. Huerman
9 C. Donovan
7 R. Serrano
Coach · Simon Bird
Substitutes
30 · R. Troutman
3 · J. Morris
4 · S. Totsch
23 · S. Gleadle
5 · B. Dayes
27 · E. Davila
14 · T. Showunmi
47 · M. Akale
99 · C. Conley
Indy Eleven
Formation not confirmed
1 E. Dick
21 M. Rasheed
4 A. Herbert
36 N. Kibunguchy
29 A. Mitrano
13 J. Hafferty
5 J. O'Brien
6 C. Lindley
14 A. Quinn
27 B. Rendon
19 E. Kizza
Coach · Sean McAuley
Substitutes
23 · R. Charles-Cook
37 · P. Craig
39 · H. Barry
90 · L. Mesanvi
20 · D. Sing
15 · M. Henry-Scott
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Louisville City
Formation not confirmed
29 R. Schewe
2 A. McFadden
31 K. Lambert
32 K. Adams
15 E. Perez
8 T. Davila
19 B. Niang
13 A. Dia
21 Q. Huerman
9 C. Donovan
7 R. Serrano
Coach · Simon Bird
Substitutes
30 · R. Troutman
3 · J. Morris
4 · S. Totsch
23 · S. Gleadle
5 · B. Dayes
27 · E. Davila
14 · T. Showunmi
47 · M. Akale
99 · C. Conley
Indy Eleven
Formation not confirmed
1 E. Dick
21 M. Rasheed
4 A. Herbert
36 N. Kibunguchy
29 A. Mitrano
13 J. Hafferty
5 J. O'Brien
6 C. Lindley
14 A. Quinn
27 B. Rendon
19 E. Kizza
Coach · Sean McAuley
Substitutes
23 · R. Charles-Cook
37 · P. Craig
39 · H. Barry
90 · L. Mesanvi
20 · D. Sing
15 · M. Henry-Scott
We make Louisville City a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City win | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | −3 |
| Indy Eleven win | 18% | 21% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Louisville City or draw | 82% | 79% | +3 |
| Louisville City clean sheet | 35% | – | – |
| Indy Eleven clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 30 Aug
LOUISVILLE CITY
INDY ELEVEN
The table
2026 · USL Championship| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 28 | +23 | 55 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 28 | +14 | 50 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 28 | +19 | 47 |
| 4 | Rhode Island | 28 | +10 | 41 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | +2 | 41 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 27 | +3 | 40 |
| 7 | Hartford Athletic | 28 | +2 | 40 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 29 | −9 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 28 | −2 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 28 | −11 | 27 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 27 | −6 | 26 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 27 | −28 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 28 | −42 | 14 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Detroit City
Charleston Battery
Rhode Island
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Hartford Athletic
Miami FC
Loudoun United
Birmingham Legion
Brooklyn
Sporting JAX