Louisville City v Detroit City prediction · USL Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Louisville CityDrawDetroit City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Louisville City 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Louisville City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Louisville City 48%, draw 27%, Detroit City 25%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Louisville City v Detroit CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Louisville City win48%

Draw27%

Detroit City win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueLynn Family Stadium

RefereeE. Koroleva

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Louisville City

Detroit City

3Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · USL Championship

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Detroit City	29	+13	50
4	Louisville City	29	+8	46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · louisville city winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Louisville City a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Louisville City v Detroit City~~1.40 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 46 v 50~~4 v 3

~~The market · Louisville City win~~46% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Louisville City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Louisville City win	48%	46%	+2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Detroit City win	25%	27%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	48%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	53%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−7
Louisville City or draw	75%	73%	+2
Louisville City clean sheet	40%	–	–
Detroit City clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 9.8 9.3 4.2 1 13.8 12.4 5.8 2 9.5 8.7 4.0 3 4.4 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Louisville City down, Detroit City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,566 USL Championship matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 363 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Louisville City at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Detroit City away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Louisville City, 0.93 for Detroit City. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LOU 0–0 DET · DET 0–0 LOU · DET 2–1 LOU · LOU 0–1 DET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept

LOUISVILLE CITY

LWDWWW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–0

DETROIT CITY

WDWWWL1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	+24	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	+20	50
3	Detroit City	29	+13	50
4	Louisville City	29	+8	46
5	Rhode Island	29	+10	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	+2	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	+1	40
8	Miami FC	30	−10	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	−5	34
10	Birmingham Legion	29	−5	30
11	Loudoun United	29	−11	28
12	Brooklyn	29	−28	21
13	Sporting JAX	29	−44	14