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Loudoun United v Brooklyn

Loudoun United
4–3Full time
Brooklyn

USL Championship · SAT 24 OCT · Segra Field

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:34
Loudoun United 4–3 Brooklyn LOUDOUN UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Loudoun United win55%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.303
The market’s Brier score0.261

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 34 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Loudoun United win at 55%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Loudoun United 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Loudoun United v Brooklyn
  4. 3′Loudoun United ahead on 3′ through R. Zouhir. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
  5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Loudoun United 1–0 Brooklyn · R. Zouhir
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Loudoun United win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
  7. 4′We said Loudoun United at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
  8. 18′J. Obregon scores for Brooklyn on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 51–26–23
  9. 18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Loudoun United 1–1 Brooklyn · J. Obregon
  10. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Loudoun United win: 55% at kick-off, 51% now
  11. 23′23′: J. Obregon on the scoresheet for Brooklyn, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 25–25–50
  12. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Loudoun United 1–2 Brooklyn · J. Obregon (penalty)
  13. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Loudoun United win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  14. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Brooklyn win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Loudoun United win 50%)
  15. 24′We said Loudoun United at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–2 · 25–25–50
  16. 25′We said Loudoun United at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–25–50
  17. 38′We said Loudoun United at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–26–54
  18. 45′We said Loudoun United at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–3 · 5–12–83
  19. 45′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 5–12–83
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Loudoun United 1–3 Brooklyn
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Loudoun United 1–3 Brooklyn
  22. 47′We said Loudoun United at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–3 · 4–11–84
  23. 48′A. Aboukoura scores for Loudoun United on 47′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 15–27–58
  24. 48′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 15–27–58
  25. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Loudoun United win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  26. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Loudoun United 2–3 Brooklyn · A. Aboukoura
  27. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Loudoun United win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  28. 49′Brooklyn ahead on 45′ through T. Okiyoshi. 1–3. 1–3 · 4–11–85 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  29. 49′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Loudoun United 1–3 Brooklyn · T. Okiyoshi
  30. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Loudoun United win: 55% at kick-off, 4% now
  31. 50′We said Loudoun United at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–3 · 14–27–59
  32. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Brooklyn · On: S. Stojanovic · Off: P. Mangione
  33. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Loudoun United · On: R. Aman · Off: P. Santos
  34. 65′65′: J. Murphy on the scoresheet for Loudoun United, making it 3–3. 3–3 · 32–50–17
  35. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Loudoun United 3–3 Brooklyn · J. Murphy
  36. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Loudoun United win: 55% at kick-off, 32% now
  37. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Brooklyn win 68%)
  38. 66′We said Loudoun United at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 3–3 · 32–51–17
  39. 67′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 31–53–17
  40. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Brooklyn · On: A. Kante · Off: T. McNamara
  41. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Brooklyn · On: Gabriel Alves · Off: S. Nishikawa
  42. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Brooklyn · On: P. Da Silva · Off: J. Obregon
  43. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Loudoun United win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  44. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Loudoun United · On: L. Butts · Off: E. Davis III
  45. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' A. Kante · Brooklyn
  46. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Loudoun United win: 55% at kick-off, 14% now
  47. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Loudoun United · On: G. Lomtadze · Off: A. Watts
  48. 89′Loudoun United ahead on 88′ through L. Butts. 4–3. 4–3 · 96–4–0
  49. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Loudoun United 4–3 Brooklyn · L. Butts
  50. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Loudoun United win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
  51. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Loudoun United win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 86%)
  52. 90′We said Loudoun United at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 4–3 · 96–3–0
  53. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' R. Zouhir · Loudoun United
  54. 91′7 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 97–3–0
  55. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' J. Murphy · Loudoun United
  56. FTFULL TIME Loudoun United 4–3 Brooklyn
  57. FTLoudoun United 4–3 Brooklyn · Loudoun United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Loudoun United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Loudoun United 55%, draw 22%, Brooklyn 23%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Loudoun United v BrooklynBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Loudoun United win55%
Draw22%
Brooklyn win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueSegra Field

RefereeJ. Lara

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Loudoun United

Brooklyn

6Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

Last match: 21 Oct · USL Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · USL Championship

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Loudoun United29−1128
12Brooklyn29−2821

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · loudoun united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:46 · locked at kick-off
55% The market58%
Us55%
Market58%

We make Loudoun United a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Loudoun United v Brooklyn1.92 – 1.15
Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 19 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 28 v 2111 v 12
The market · Loudoun United win58% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 21:33
Our probability · Loudoun United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Loudoun United win55%58%−3
Draw22%22%0
Brooklyn win23%20%+3
Over 2.5 goals59%65%−6
Both teams to score58%62%−4
Over 1.5 goals81%83%−2
Over 3.5 goals37%45%−8
Loudoun United or draw77%80%−3
Loudoun United clean sheet32%––
Brooklyn clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%
0123450 4.7 5.6 3.1 1 9.1 10.1 5.9 2.3 2 8.5 9.6 5.5 2.2 3 5.4 6.1 3.5 4 2.6 3.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Loudoun United down, Brooklyn across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsBRO 0–1 LOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 19 Sept

LOUDOUN UNITED

LWDWLD1–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

BROOKLYN

DLLLWL2–2 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–2

The table

2026 · USL Championship
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tampa Bay Rowdies29+2458
2Charleston Battery29+2050
3Detroit City29+1350
4Louisville City29+846
5Rhode Island29+1042
6Pittsburgh Riverhounds29+242
7Hartford Athletic29+140
8Miami FC30−1036
9Indy Eleven29−534
10Birmingham Legion29−530
11Loudoun United29−1128
12Brooklyn29−2821
13Sporting JAX29−4414

The competition's standings before kick-off.