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Lexington v FC Tulsa

Lexington

0–0Full time

FC Tulsa

USL Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Toyota Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 03:00

Lexington 0–0 FC Tulsa LEXINGTON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lexington win~~43%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.822

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.914

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lexington win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lexington 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Lexington v FC Tulsa
45′HALF-TIME Lexington 0–0 FC Tulsa
46′SECOND HALF Lexington 0–0 FC Tulsa
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Tulsa · On: J. Kocevski · Off: W. Wilson
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lexington · On: B. P. Rodrigues · Off: Nick Firmino
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Tulsa · On: G. Colli · Off: A. Ordonez
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lexington · On: M. Yosef · Off: M. Fry
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Tulsa · On: R. Cabral · Off: L. Dorsey
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Tulsa · On: S. Lukic · Off: B. Diallo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Tulsa · On: D. Pierre · Off: J. Webber
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' J. Kocevski · FC Tulsa
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' P. Goodrum · Lexington
FTFULL TIME Lexington 0–0 FC Tulsa
FTLexington 0–0 FC Tulsa · Lexington win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lexington win43%

Draw26%

FC Tulsa win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Toyota Stadium

Referee · E. Garcia

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Lexington

Formation not confirmed

17 O. Semmle

12 X. Zengue

5 K. Burks

23 J. Brown

2 J. Greene

16 B. Ferri

6 A. Molloy

34 M. Fry

8 Nick Firmino

7 M. Epps

9 P. Goodrum

Coach · Masaki Hemmi

Substitutes

31 · B. Thompson

40 · G. Addams

21 · M. Muir

98 · P. Seagrist

14 · A. Caborn

13 · M. Tschantret

27 · B. P. Rodrigues

19 · T. Scott

20 · M. Yosef

FC Tulsa

Formation not confirmed

28 D. Jacomen

44 J. Sangwa

91 A. Cissoko

15 L. Batista

23 W. Eisner

8 J. Webber

6 B. Diallo

2 O. Damm

66 W. Wilson

9 A. Ordonez

14 L. Dorsey

Coach · Luke Spencer

Substitutes

1 · A. Tambakis

4 · D. Pierre

12 · L. Stauffer

7 · R. Cabral

20 · G. Colli

22 · S. Lukic

13 · J. Kocevski

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lexington

Formation not confirmed

17 O. Semmle

12 X. Zengue

5 K. Burks

23 J. Brown

2 J. Greene

16 B. Ferri

6 A. Molloy

34 M. Fry

8 Nick Firmino

7 M. Epps

9 P. Goodrum

Coach · Masaki Hemmi

Substitutes

31 · B. Thompson

40 · G. Addams

21 · M. Muir

98 · P. Seagrist

14 · A. Caborn

13 · M. Tschantret

27 · B. P. Rodrigues

19 · T. Scott

20 · M. Yosef

FC Tulsa

Formation not confirmed

28 D. Jacomen

44 J. Sangwa

91 A. Cissoko

15 L. Batista

23 W. Eisner

8 J. Webber

6 B. Diallo

2 O. Damm

66 W. Wilson

9 A. Ordonez

14 L. Dorsey

Coach · Luke Spencer

Substitutes

1 · A. Tambakis

4 · D. Pierre

12 · L. Stauffer

7 · R. Cabral

20 · G. Colli

22 · S. Lukic

13 · J. Kocevski

Our number · lexington winPublished 10 Oct 00:31

43% The market55%

Us43%

~~Market~~55%

We make Lexington a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lexington win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lexington win	43%	55%	−13
Draw	26%	25%	+2
FC Tulsa win	31%	20%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	75%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−8
Lexington or draw	69%	80%	−11
Lexington clean sheet	32%	–	–
FC Tulsa clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.1 9.4 5.2 2.0 1 11.3 12.3 7.1 2.7 2 7.6 8.6 4.9 3 3.6 4.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lexington down, FC Tulsa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,538 USL Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.9% of games this season, across 335 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lexington at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Tulsa away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Lexington, 1.14 for FC Tulsa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FCT 0–0 LEX · FCT 3–0 LEX · LEX 0–2 FCT

Form · last six in USL Championship

LEXINGTON

LLWWWW0–1 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 6–0 · 3–2 · 3–1

FC TULSA

DLDDWD0–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	+13	47
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	26	+21	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
7	Lexington	27	+16	43
8	FC Tulsa	27	+7	42
9	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
10	Hartford Athletic	26	+3	39
11	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
12	Rhode Island	26	+10	38
13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	+1	38
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
15	Louisville City	26	+1	37
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	28	−7	36
18	Indy Eleven	27	0	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	26	−12	24
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14