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Las Vegas Lights v Lexington

Las Vegas Lights
3–5Full time
Lexington

USL Championship · SUN 18 OCT · Cashman Field

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 06:00
Las Vegas Lights 3–5 Lexington LEXINGTON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lexington win40%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.544
The market’s Brier score0.458

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lexington win at 40%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Las Vegas Lights v Lexington
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Lexington was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 35–26–40
  4. 5′4′: X. Zengue on the scoresheet for Lexington, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–20–66
  5. 5′We published Lexington at 40%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 15–20–66
  6. 5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Las Vegas Lights 0–1 Lexington · X. Zengue (assist M. Epps)
  7. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Lexington win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
  8. 25′Las Vegas Lights level it on 25′ through C. Locker. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–31–37
  9. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Lexington · C. Locker
  10. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Lexington win: 40% at kick-off, 37% now
  11. 41′Nick Firmino scores for Lexington on 40′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–21–70
  12. 41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Las Vegas Lights 1–2 Lexington · Nick Firmino (assist P. Goodrum)
  13. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Lexington win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
  14. 42′We published Lexington at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 9–21–70
  15. 43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–21–71
  16. 45′Nick Firmino scores for Lexington on 39′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 8–21–71
  17. 45′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 29–39–32
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Las Vegas Lights 2–2 Lexington
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Las Vegas Lights 2–2 Lexington
  20. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Las Vegas Lights · On: M. Arteaga · Off: O. Anderson
  21. 48′45′: O. Anderson on the scoresheet for Las Vegas Lights, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 28–40–32
  22. 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Las Vegas Lights 2–2 Lexington · O. Anderson
  23. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Lexington win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
  24. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Lexington win 32%)
  25. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lexington · On: B. P. Rodrigues · Off: M. Fry
  26. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Lexington win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  27. 57′We said Lexington at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 2–2 · 25–46–28
  28. 62′Lexington ahead on 62′ through Nick Firmino. 2–3. 2–3 · 4–19–77
  29. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Las Vegas Lights 2–3 Lexington · Nick Firmino
  30. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Lexington win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
  31. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Lexington win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
  32. 64′We published Lexington at 40%. Our model now makes it 78%. 2–3 · 4–19–78
  33. 64′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 4–19–78
  34. 68′We published Lexington at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
  35. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Lexington win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
  36. 75′B. Ferri scores for Lexington on 75′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–98
  37. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Las Vegas Lights 2–4 Lexington · B. Ferri
  38. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Lexington win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
  39. 76′We published Lexington at 40%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–4 · 0–1–98
  40. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Las Vegas Lights · On: B. Pope · Off: T. Antonoglou
  41. 77′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–1–99
  42. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Las Vegas Lights · On: P. Leal · Off: M. Ybarra
  43. 82′81′: P. Leal on the scoresheet for Las Vegas Lights, making it 3–4. 3–4 · 1–9–90
  44. 82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Las Vegas Lights 3–4 Lexington · P. Leal (assist C. Pinzon)
  45. 84′We published Lexington at 40%. Our model now makes it 92%. 3–4 · 0–7–92
  46. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lexington · On: P. Seagrist · Off: Nick Firmino
  47. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lexington · On: M. Tschantret · Off: B. Ferri
  48. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Las Vegas Lights · On: A. Okyere · Off: C. Locker
  49. 86′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–4 · 0–6–93
  50. 92′Lexington ahead on 90′ through P. Seagrist. 3–5. 3–5 · 0–0–100
  51. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Las Vegas Lights 3–5 Lexington · P. Seagrist (assist M. Epps)
  52. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Lexington · On: M. Yosef · Off: M. Epps
  53. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Lexington win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
  54. 94′We published Lexington at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–5 · 0–0–100
  55. 95′8 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–5 · 0–0–100
  56. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' M. Arteaga · Las Vegas Lights
  57. FTFULL TIME Las Vegas Lights 3–5 Lexington
  58. FTLas Vegas Lights 3–5 Lexington · Lexington win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lexington are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Las Vegas Lights 35%, draw 25%, Lexington 40%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Las Vegas Lights v LexingtonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Las Vegas Lights win35%
Draw25%
Lexington win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueCashman Field

RefereeI. Bych

Line-ups

Las Vegas Lights

4-3-3

Lexington

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Las Vegas Lights

Lexington

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship

Last match: 10 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · USL Championship

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Lexington28+1644
10Las Vegas Lights28−436

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Las Vegas Lights

4-3-3

1 T. Henry

6 N. Sessock

3 N. Jones

33 A. Guillen

81 T. Antonoglou

23 M. Ybarra

27 G. Probo

18 C. Locker

11 C. Pinzon

14 J. Rodriguez

25 O. Anderson

Coach · Devin Rensing

Substitutes

13 · C. Lanphier

30 · B. Ofeimu

4 · C. Stretch

45 · B. Pope

43 · A. Okyere

17 · P. Leal

9 · M. Arteaga

Lexington

4-2-3-1

17 O. Semmle

12 X. Zengue

5 K. Burks

21 M. Muir

2 J. Greene

16 B. Ferri

6 A. Molloy

34 M. Fry

8 Nick Firmino

7 M. Epps

9 P. Goodrum

Coach · Masaki Hemmi

Substitutes

31 · B. Thompson

23 · J. Brown

98 · P. Seagrist

13 · M. Tschantret

27 · B. P. Rodrigues

19 · T. Scott

20 · M. Yosef

Our number · lexington winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
40% The market45%
Us40%
Market45%

We make Lexington a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Las Vegas Lights v Lexington1.32 – 1.43
Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 36 v 4410 v 4
The market · Lexington win45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0618 OCT 03:17
Our probability · Lexington win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Las Vegas Lights win35%30%+5
Draw25%25%0
Lexington win40%45%−5
Over 2.5 goals52%58%−6
Both teams to score55%62%−7
Over 1.5 goals76%80%−4
Over 3.5 goals30%38%−8
Las Vegas Lights or draw60%55%+5
Las Vegas Lights clean sheet24%––
Lexington clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 6.5 9.3 6.6 3.2 1 8.6 11.8 8.5 4.1 2 5.6 7.8 5.6 2.7 3 2.5 3.5 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Las Vegas Lights down, Lexington across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsLEX 2–0 LAS · LAS 2–1 LEX · LAS 1–0 LEX · LEX 0–0 LAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 5 Sept

LAS VEGAS LIGHTS

LWDLWL1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–3

LEXINGTON

LWWWWD2–3 · 4–1 · 6–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026 · USL Championship
#TEAMPGDPTS
1El Paso Locomotive28+1250
2New Mexico United28+1149
3Sacramento Republic28+1245
4Lexington28+1644
5FC Tulsa28+743
6Colorado Springs28+341
7Orange County SC28−739
8San Antonio28039
9Phoenix Rising28−336
10Las Vegas Lights28−436
11Oakland Roots28−235
12Monterey Bay28−2021

The competition's standings before kick-off.