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Indy Eleven v Tampa Bay Rowdies

Indy Eleven

1–3Full time

Tampa Bay Rowdies

USL Championship · SUN 11 OCT · Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:30

Indy Eleven 1–3 Tampa Bay Rowdies TAMPA BAY ROWDIES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tampa Bay Rowdies win~~41%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.529

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.409

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tampa Bay Rowdies win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tampa Bay Rowdies 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 34–25–41
1′KICK-OFF Indy Eleven v Tampa Bay Rowdies
2′Little has changed for our model: Tampa Bay Rowdies 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 34–25–41
5′Indy Eleven ahead on 5′ through E. Kizza. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–21–19
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Indy Eleven 1–0 Tampa Bay Rowdies · E. Kizza
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Indy Eleven win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Tampa Bay Rowdies win 19%)
6′Indy Eleven ahead on 5′ through E. Kizza. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–21–19
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Tampa Bay Rowdies win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Indy Eleven win 34%)
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Indy Eleven win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Tampa Bay Rowdies win 19%)
9′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 60–22–18
10′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 60–22–18
26′Indy Eleven ahead on 5′ through E. Kizza. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–23–15
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Indy Eleven win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Tampa Bay Rowdies win 15%)
27′Indy Eleven ahead on 5′ through E. Kizza. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–23–15
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Indy Eleven win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Tampa Bay Rowdies win 15%)
30′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
31′We said Tampa Bay Rowdies at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–23–14
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Indy Eleven win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Tampa Bay Rowdies win 14%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Tampa Bay Rowdies win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Indy Eleven win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Tampa Bay Rowdies win 14%)
45′HALF-TIME Indy Eleven 1–0 Tampa Bay Rowdies
46′SECOND HALF Indy Eleven 1–0 Tampa Bay Rowdies
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' B. Rendon · Indy Eleven
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tampa Bay Rowdies · On: L. Wyke · Off: B. Schaefer
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' C. Ostrem · Tampa Bay Rowdies
70′🟨 YELLOW · 67' C. Ostrem · Tampa Bay Rowdies
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tampa Bay Rowdies · On: M. Micaletto · Off: L. Perez
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Indy Eleven 1–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies · M. Myers
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' M. Myers · Tampa Bay Rowdies
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Indy Eleven · On: A. Mitrano · Off: C. Lindley
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Indy Eleven · On: L. Mesanvi · Off: E. Kizza
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Indy Eleven · On: D. Sing · Off: M. Omar
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Tampa Bay Rowdies · On: K. Henderlong · Off: Pedro Becker
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Tampa Bay Rowdies · On: L. Archer · Off: D. Acoff
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Indy Eleven 1–2 Tampa Bay Rowdies · S. Cruz
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Indy Eleven 1–3 Tampa Bay Rowdies · M. Micaletto
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Indy Eleven 1–3 Tampa Bay Rowdies · M. Micaletto (assist K. Henderlong)
FTFULL TIME Indy Eleven 1–3 Tampa Bay Rowdies
FTIndy Eleven 1–3 Tampa Bay Rowdies · Tampa Bay Rowdies win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Indy Eleven win34%

Draw25%

Tampa Bay Rowdies win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Referee · T. Wiseman

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Indy Eleven

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Dick

21 M. Rasheed

4 A. Herbert

36 N. Kibunguchy

14 A. Quinn

13 J. Hafferty

22 M. Omar

6 C. Lindley

5 J. O'Brien

27 B. Rendon

19 E. Kizza

Coach · Sean McAuley

Substitutes

23 · R. Charles-Cook

37 · P. Craig

29 · A. Mitrano

39 · H. Barry

90 · L. Mesanvi

20 · D. Sing

15 · M. Henry-Scott

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Waite

26 D. Acoff

3 B. Schaefer

62 N. Dossantos

20 C. Ostrem

23 M. Schneider

30 S. Cruz

8 Pedro Becker

13 L. Perez

9 M. Myers

10 R. Cicerone

Coach · Dominic Casciato

Substitutes

24 · A. Pack

55 · L. Archer

27 · L. Wyke

16 · M. Micaletto

11 · G. Vivi Quesada

14 · K. Henderlong

36 · A. Rodriguez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Indy Eleven

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Dick

21 M. Rasheed

4 A. Herbert

36 N. Kibunguchy

14 A. Quinn

13 J. Hafferty

22 M. Omar

6 C. Lindley

5 J. O'Brien

27 B. Rendon

19 E. Kizza

Coach · Sean McAuley

Substitutes

23 · R. Charles-Cook

37 · P. Craig

29 · A. Mitrano

39 · H. Barry

90 · L. Mesanvi

20 · D. Sing

15 · M. Henry-Scott

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Waite

26 D. Acoff

3 B. Schaefer

62 N. Dossantos

20 C. Ostrem

23 M. Schneider

30 S. Cruz

8 Pedro Becker

13 L. Perez

9 M. Myers

10 R. Cicerone

Coach · Dominic Casciato

Substitutes

24 · A. Pack

55 · L. Archer

27 · L. Wyke

16 · M. Micaletto

11 · G. Vivi Quesada

14 · K. Henderlong

36 · A. Rodriguez

Our number · tampa bay rowdies winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

41% The market48%

Us41%

~~Market~~48%

We make Tampa Bay Rowdies a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Indy Eleven win	34%	27%	+8
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Tampa Bay Rowdies win	41%	48%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	53%	+1
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Indy Eleven or draw	59%	52%	+7
Indy Eleven clean sheet	23%	–	–
Tampa Bay Rowdies clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.9 8.9 6.5 3.3 1 8.1 11.5 8.6 4.3 2 5.3 7.8 5.8 2.9 3 2.4 3.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Indy Eleven down, Tampa Bay Rowdies across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,539 USL Championship matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 336 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Indy Eleven at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tampa Bay Rowdies away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Indy Eleven, 1.49 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~TAM 1–0 IND · IND 1–3 TAM · TAM 3–1 IND · TAM 3–0 IND

Form · last six in USL Championship

INDY ELEVEN

DWLLLD2–2 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

TAMPA BAY ROWDIES

DWLWDL0–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	+13	47
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	26	+21	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Lexington	28	+16	44
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
8	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
9	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
10	Hartford Athletic	26	+3	39
11	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
12	Rhode Island	26	+10	38
13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	+1	38
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
15	Louisville City	26	+1	37
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	28	−7	36
18	Indy Eleven	27	0	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	26	−12	24
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14