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Hartford Athletic v Rhode Island

Hartford Athletic

2–1Full time

Rhode Island

USL Championship · SUN 25 OCT · Trinity Health Stadium

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01

Hartford Athletic 2–1 Rhode Island HARTFORD ATHLETIC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hartford Athletic win~~38%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.587

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.591

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hartford Athletic win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hartford Athletic was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Hartford Athletic v Rhode Island
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' K. Yao · Rhode Island
26′25′: K. Yao on the scoresheet for Rhode Island, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–66
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Hartford Athletic 0–1 Rhode Island · K. Yao
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Hartford Athletic win: 38% at kick-off, 11% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Rhode Island win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Hartford Athletic win 34%)
27′We said Hartford Athletic at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–66
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–67
36′We said Hartford Athletic at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Hartford Athletic win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Hartford Athletic 0–1 Rhode Island
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' B. Coffey · Hartford Athletic
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' S. Anaku · Hartford Athletic
51′🟨 YELLOW · 45' B. Burke · Hartford Athletic
51′🟨 YELLOW · 46' A. Sanchez · Rhode Island
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' F. Nodarse · Rhode Island
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hartford Athletic · On: T. Presthus · Off: A. Diz
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hartford Athletic · On: M. Adedokun · Off: B. Coffey
60′We said Hartford Athletic at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hartford Athletic · On: S. Careaga · Off: J. Moreira
69′Hartford Athletic level it on 68′ through S. Anaku. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–63–18
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Hartford Athletic 1–1 Rhode Island · S. Anaku (assist E. Samadia)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Hartford Athletic win: 38% at kick-off, 19% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Rhode Island win 80%)
70′We said Hartford Athletic at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–64–17
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' B. Makangila · Hartford Athletic
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Rhode Island · On: Leo Afonso · Off: Z. Herivaux
80′E. Samadia scores for Hartford Athletic on 78′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 90–10–1
80′We published Hartford Athletic at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
80′⚽ GOAL · 78' Hartford Athletic 2–1 Rhode Island · E. Samadia
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Hartford Athletic win: 38% at kick-off, 90% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Hartford Athletic win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 77%)
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 91–9–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hartford Athletic · On: A. Obalola · Off: S. Anaku
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' J. Kwizera · Rhode Island
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rhode Island · On: D. Atkinson · Off: A. Shapiro-Thompson
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rhode Island · On: Y. Tsukada · Off: S. Korzeniowski
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rhode Island · On: N. Fuson · Off: A. Sanchez
87′We published Hartford Athletic at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Hartford Athletic win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Hartford Athletic 2–1 Rhode Island
FTHartford Athletic 2–1 Rhode Island · Hartford Athletic win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hartford Athletic just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hartford Athletic 38%, draw 28%, Rhode Island 34%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Hartford Athletic v Rhode IslandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Hartford Athletic win38%

Draw28%

Rhode Island win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueTrinity Health Stadium

RefereeA. Ndiaye

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hartford Athletic

Rhode Island

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Rhode Island	29	+10	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	+1	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hartford athletic winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market37%

Us38%

~~Market~~37%

We make Hartford Athletic a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hartford Athletic v Rhode Island~~1.18 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 40 v 42~~7 v 5

~~The market · Hartford Athletic win~~37% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hartford Athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hartford Athletic win	38%	37%	+1
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Rhode Island win	34%	34%	0
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	46%	54%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	66%	71%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−8
Hartford Athletic or draw	66%	66%	0
Hartford Athletic clean sheet	33%	–	–
Rhode Island clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.1 11.4 6.3 2.4 1 12.0 12.9 7.3 2.7 2 7.0 7.7 4.3 3 2.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hartford Athletic down, Rhode Island across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,566 USL Championship matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 363 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hartford Athletic at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rhode Island away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Hartford Athletic, 1.12 for Rhode Island. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RHO 1–0 HAR · HAR 0–0 RHO · RHO 2–0 HAR · HAR 3–0 RHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 16 Sept

HARTFORD ATHLETIC

WDDLDL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3

RHODE ISLAND

LWWLWD0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	+24	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	+20	50
3	Detroit City	29	+13	50
4	Louisville City	29	+8	46
5	Rhode Island	29	+10	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	+2	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	+1	40
8	Miami FC	30	−10	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	−5	34
10	Birmingham Legion	29	−5	30
11	Loudoun United	29	−11	28
12	Brooklyn	29	−28	21
13	Sporting JAX	29	−44	14