Hartford Athletic v Charleston Battery prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 02:30

Hartford Athletic 1–1 Charleston Battery CHARLESTON BATTERY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Charleston Battery win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.853

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.816

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Charleston Battery win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Charleston Battery 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 34–25–41
1′KICK-OFF Hartford Athletic v Charleston Battery
41′Hartford Athletic ahead on 42′ through A. Williams. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–23–11
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Hartford Athletic 1–0 Charleston Battery
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Charleston Battery win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Hartford Athletic win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Charleston Battery win 11%)
45′We said Charleston Battery at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 67–23–10
45′SECOND HALF Hartford Athletic 1–0 Charleston Battery
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Charleston Battery · On: M. Berry · Off: S. Suber
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Charleston Battery · On: N. Messer · Off: N. Houssou
49′We said Charleston Battery at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Charleston Battery · On: D. Martinez · Off: L. Blackstock
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hartford Athletic · On: S. Anderson · Off: O. Pearman
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hartford Athletic · On: B. Coffey · Off: C. Hadjipaschalis
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Hartford Athletic · On: S. Anaku · Off: A. Obalola
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Charleston Battery · On: C. A. Sanchez Gonzalez · Off: C. Swan
68′We said Charleston Battery at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Charleston Battery · On: A. Cabrera · Off: L. Kissiedou
74′We said Charleston Battery at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 17–64–19
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Hartford Athletic 1–1 Charleston Battery
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Charleston Battery win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Hartford Athletic win 17%)
75′B. Njie scores for Charleston Battery on 76′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 16–66–18
76′B. Njie scores for Charleston Battery on 75′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 15–67–17
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hartford Athletic · On: M. Ngalina · Off: A. Williams
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' L. Zamudio · Charleston Battery
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' B. Mines · Hartford Athletic
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Charleston Battery win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' D. Martinez · Charleston Battery
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Hartford Athletic · On: M. Adedokun · Off: B. Mines
FTFULL TIME Hartford Athletic 1–1 Charleston Battery
FTHartford Athletic 1–1 Charleston Battery · Charleston Battery win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Charleston Battery are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hartford Athletic 34%, draw 25%, Charleston Battery 41%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Hartford Athletic v Charleston BatteryBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

Hartford Athletic win34%

Draw25%

Charleston Battery win41%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:00

VenueTrinity Health Stadium

Line-ups

Hartford Athletic

Charleston Battery

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hartford Athletic

Charleston Battery

4Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Charleston Battery	27	19	46
6	Hartford Athletic	27	2	39

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hartford Athletic

Formation not confirmed

77 A. Siaha

25 B. Fischer

15 A. Diz

5 B. Njie

6 B. Makangila

22 T. Presthus

21 B. Mines

18 C. Hadjipaschalis

47 O. Pearman

9 A. Williams

81 A. Obalola

Coach · Brendan Burke

Substitutes

1 · E. Carvalho

2 · S. Anderson

19 · E. Samadia

16 · B. Coffey

7 · M. Adedokun

10 · S. Careaga

11 · M. Ngalina

17 · S. Anaku

27 · S. Gordon

Charleston Battery

Formation not confirmed

56 L. Zamudio

5 S. Suber

16 G. Smith

22 J. Akpunonu

91 N. Houssou

10 L. Kissiedou

8 E. Ycaza

99 M. Foster

29 J. Kelly

7 L. Blackstock

30 C. Swan

Coach · Ben Pirmann

Substitutes

1 · J. Berner

4 · C. Allan

42 · D. Martinez

3 · N. Messer

13 · A. Cabrera

90 · M. Berry

9 · C. A. Sanchez Gonzalez

Our number · charleston battery winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Charleston Battery a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hartford Athletic v Charleston Battery~~1.34 – 1.50

~~Last six in USL Championship~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 39 v 46~~6 v 3

~~The market · Charleston Battery win~~38% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · charleston battery win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hartford Athletic win	34%	36%	−2
Draw	25%	26%	−2
Charleston Battery win	41%	38%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Hartford Athletic or draw	59%	62%	−3
Hartford Athletic clean sheet	23%	–	–
Charleston Battery clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.9 8.9 6.6 3.3 1 8.0 11.5 8.6 4.3 2 5.3 7.7 5.8 2.9 3 2.4 3.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hartford Athletic down, Charleston Battery across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,549 USL Championship matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 346 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 4.46 goals a meeting; 11 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hartford Athletic at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Charleston Battery away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Hartford Athletic, 1.50 for Charleston Battery. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.46

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 13

~~Both scored~~11 of 13

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–2 HAR · HAR 1–2 CHA · CHA 4–2 HAR · HAR 2–2 CHA

Form · last six in USL Championship

HARTFORD ATHLETIC

DWWDDL1–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

CHARLESTON BATTERY

WLDWWL2–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	23	55
2	Detroit City	28	14	50
3	Charleston Battery	27	19	46
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	2	41
5	Louisville City	27	3	40
6	Hartford Athletic	27	2	39
7	Rhode Island	27	9	38
8	Miami FC	29	-9	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	-2	34
10	Loudoun United	27	-10	27
11	Birmingham Legion	26	-7	23
12	Brooklyn	27	-28	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	-41	14