Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30

Hartford Athletic 2–3 Brooklyn HARTFORD ATHLETIC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hartford Athletic win~~62%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.117

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hartford Athletic win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hartford Athletic 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–17
1′KICK-OFF Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn
22′M. Adedokun scores for Hartford Athletic on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–5
22′We said Hartford Athletic at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–5
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Hartford Athletic 1–0 Brooklyn · M. Adedokun
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Hartford Athletic win: 62% at kick-off, 83% now
29′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Brooklyn · On: V. Latinovich · Off: C. Frogson
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' A. Fontana · Brooklyn
45′HALF-TIME Hartford Athletic 1–0 Brooklyn
46′SECOND HALF Hartford Athletic 1–0 Brooklyn
57′Hartford Athletic ahead on 57′ through S. Anaku. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–13–2
57′⚽ GOAL · 55' Hartford Athletic 2–1 Brooklyn · A. Kante (assist T. Vancaeyezeele)
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Hartford Athletic 2–1 Brooklyn · S. Anaku
59′We said Hartford Athletic at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
59′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 85–13–2
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' T. McNamara · Brooklyn
63′J. Klein scores for Brooklyn on 63′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 37–49–14
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Hartford Athletic 2–2 Brooklyn · J. Klein
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Hartford Athletic win: 62% at kick-off, 37% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Hartford Athletic win 37%)
68′We said Hartford Athletic at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 2–2 · 32–54–13
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Hartford Athletic win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
69′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 31–56–13
71′We said Hartford Athletic at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–58–12
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' A. Fontana · Brooklyn
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' A. Fontana · Brooklyn
74′Brooklyn are down to ten from 73′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–2 · 26–63–11
78′We said Hartford Athletic at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 2–2 · 21–70–9
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Brooklyn · On: J. Servania · Off: A. Kante
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Brooklyn · On: J. Obregon · Off: J. Klein Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Brooklyn · On: P. Mangione · Off: C. Olney JR Corrected
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Hartford Athletic win: 62% at kick-off, 21% now
79′79′: J. Obregon on the scoresheet for Brooklyn, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 2–17–80
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Hartford Athletic 2–3 Brooklyn · J. Obregon
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Hartford Athletic win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Brooklyn win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
80′We said Hartford Athletic at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–3 · 2–16–82
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hartford Athletic · On: S. Careaga · Off: B. Coffey
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hartford Athletic · On: A. Obalola · Off: M. Ngalina
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Brooklyn · On: J. Obregon · Off: T. McNamara
82′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–14–85
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hartford Athletic · On: B. Mines · Off: T. Presthus
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hartford Athletic · On: A. Williams · Off: S. Anaku
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' M. Pinto · Brooklyn
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' J. Servania · Brooklyn
FTFULL TIME Hartford Athletic 2–3 Brooklyn
FTHartford Athletic 2–3 Brooklyn · Hartford Athletic win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hartford Athletic are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hartford Athletic 62%, draw 21%, Brooklyn 17%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Hartford Athletic v BrooklynBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hartford Athletic win62%

Draw21%

Brooklyn win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueTrinity Health Stadium

RefereeN. Strednak

Line-ups

Hartford Athletic

Brooklyn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hartford Athletic

Brooklyn

3Days since last match14

Last match: 15 Oct · USL Championship

Last match: 4 Oct · USL Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Hartford Athletic	28	+2	40
12	Brooklyn	27	−28	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hartford Athletic

Formation not confirmed

77 A. Siaha

22 T. Presthus

15 A. Diz

5 B. Njie

8 J. Moreira

2 S. Anderson

7 M. Adedokun

16 B. Coffey

19 E. Samadia

17 S. Anaku

11 M. Ngalina

Coach · Brendan Burke

Substitutes

1 · E. Carvalho

25 · B. Fischer

47 · O. Pearman

6 · B. Makangila

10 · S. Careaga

81 · A. Obalola

9 · A. Williams

21 · B. Mines

27 · S. Gordon

Brooklyn

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lee

5 M. Pinto

24 C. Frogson

92 T. Vancaeyezeele

3 Gabriel Alves

86 T. Okiyoshi

7 T. McNamara

95 A. Kante

8 J. Klein

56 C. Olney JR

21 A. Fontana

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · L. Burns

4 · R. Romeo

6 · V. Latinovich

27 · P. Mangione

11 · J. Servania

19 · S. Stojanovic

29 · J. Obregon

Our number · hartford athletic winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market67%

Us62%

~~Market~~67%

We make Hartford Athletic a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn~~2.00 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 40 v 18~~7 v 12

~~The market · Hartford Athletic win~~67% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hartford Athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hartford Athletic win	62%	67%	−5
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Brooklyn win	17%	14%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	53%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
Hartford Athletic or draw	83%	86%	−3
Hartford Athletic clean sheet	40%	–	–
Brooklyn clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.8%

0123450 5.4 5.1 2.4 1 10.8 9.8 4.6 2 10.6 9.7 4.5 3 7.1 6.5 3.0 4 3.6 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hartford Athletic down, Brooklyn across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 USL Championship matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 349 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hartford Athletic at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Brooklyn away: 0.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Hartford Athletic, 0.93 for Brooklyn. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRO 0–2 HAR · BRO 1–2 HAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept

HARTFORD ATHLETIC

WWDDLD3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

BROOKLYN

DLDLLL1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–3

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	+23	55
2	Detroit City	28	+14	50
3	Charleston Battery	28	+19	47
4	Rhode Island	28	+10	41
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	+2	41
6	Louisville City	27	+3	40
7	Hartford Athletic	28	+2	40
8	Miami FC	29	−9	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	−2	34
10	Loudoun United	28	−11	27
11	Birmingham Legion	27	−6	26
12	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
13	Sporting JAX	28	−42	14