FC Tulsa v Oakland Roots

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Tulsa win at 53%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: FC Tulsa was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
3. 1′KICK-OFF FC Tulsa v Oakland Roots
4. 3′FC Tulsa ahead on 3′ through L. Dorsey. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' FC Tulsa 1–0 Oakland Roots · L. Dorsey
6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' FC Tulsa win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
7. 5′We published FC Tulsa at 53%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
8. 21′W. Prentice scores for Oakland Roots on 21′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 48–30–21
9. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' FC Tulsa 1–1 Oakland Roots · W. Prentice
10. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' FC Tulsa win: 53% at kick-off, 48% now
11. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' FC Tulsa win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
12. 42′We said FC Tulsa at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–39–20
13. 45′HALF-TIME FC Tulsa 1–1 Oakland Roots
14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Tulsa · On: D. Pierre · Off: L. Batista
15. 46′SECOND HALF FC Tulsa 1–1 Oakland Roots
16. 47′We said FC Tulsa at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–42–19
17. 50′49′: L. Dorsey on the scoresheet for FC Tulsa, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–3
18. 50′⚽ GOAL · 49' FC Tulsa 2–1 Oakland Roots · L. Dorsey (assist W. Wilson)
19. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' FC Tulsa win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
20. 51′We published FC Tulsa at 53%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–3
21. 53′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–15–3
22. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' FC Tulsa win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
23. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Oakland Roots · On: B. Jacquesson · Off: T. Gibson
24. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Oakland Roots · On: M. Fisher · Off: K. Tingey
25. 60′Oakland Roots level it on 60′ through W. Prentice. 2–2. 2–2 · 32–51–16
26. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' FC Tulsa 2–2 Oakland Roots · W. Prentice (assist B. Jacquesson)
27. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' FC Tulsa win: 53% at kick-off, 32% now
28. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was FC Tulsa win 32%)
29. 61′We said FC Tulsa at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 2–2 · 32–52–16
30. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Tulsa · On: G. Colli · Off: W. Wilson
31. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' FC Tulsa win: 53% at kick-off, 32% now
32. 62′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 31–53–16
33. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Tulsa · On: S. Lukic · Off: D. Borczak
34. 65′We said FC Tulsa at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–56–15
35. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Tulsa · On: stefan lukic · Off: D. Borczak Corrected
36. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Tulsa · On: remi cabral · Off: L. Dorsey Corrected
37. 72′We said FC Tulsa at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 23–65–12
38. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' FC Tulsa win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
39. 76′We said FC Tulsa at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–71–10
40. 81′We said FC Tulsa at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–79–7
41. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' FC Tulsa win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
42. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Oakland Roots · On: N. Hackshaw · Off: W. Prentice
43. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Oakland Roots · On: T. Lepley · Off: B. Byaruhanga
44. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Oakland Roots · On: J. Bravo · Off: T. McCabe
45. 83′P. Wilson scores for Oakland Roots on 83′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–10–89
46. 83′We said FC Tulsa at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–3 · 1–10–89
47. 83′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 1–10–89
48. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' FC Tulsa 2–3 Oakland Roots · P. Wilson
49. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' FC Tulsa win: 53% at kick-off, 1% now
50. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Oakland Roots win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
51. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Tulsa · On: Marcos Serrato · Off: O. Damm
52. 89′88′: B. Jacquesson on the scoresheet for Oakland Roots, making it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
53. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' FC Tulsa 2–4 Oakland Roots · B. Jacquesson
54. 92′6 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–100
55. FTFULL TIME FC Tulsa 2–4 Oakland Roots
56. FTFC Tulsa 2–4 Oakland Roots · FC Tulsa win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.