El Paso Locomotive v Sacramento Republic prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:31

El Paso Locomotive 0–1 Sacramento Republic SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sacramento Republic win~~37%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.602

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.597

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sacramento Republic win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sacramento Republic 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
1′KICK-OFF El Paso Locomotive v Sacramento Republic
5′4′: N. Dollenmayer on the scoresheet for El Paso Locomotive, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 64–21–15
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' El Paso Locomotive 1–0 Sacramento Republic · N. Dollenmayer
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Sacramento Republic win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' El Paso Locomotive win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Sacramento Republic win 15%)
5′GOAL DISALLOWED · 5' El Paso Locomotive
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Sacramento Republic win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Neill William Collins · Sacramento Republic
36′🟨 YELLOW · 23' N. Collins · Sacramento Republic
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was El Paso Locomotive win 31%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' R. Coronado · El Paso Locomotive
45′HALF-TIME El Paso Locomotive 0–0 Sacramento Republic
45′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Neill William Collins · Sacramento Republic
46′SECOND HALF El Paso Locomotive 0–0 Sacramento Republic
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Sacramento Republic win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–48–26
57′We said Sacramento Republic at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 25–50–25
62′We said Sacramento Republic at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–54–23
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sacramento Republic · On: A. Midence · Off: M. Malango
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sacramento Republic · On: R. Spaulding · Off: M. Benitez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' El Paso Locomotive · On: D. Gomez · Off: C. Sainte
69′We said Sacramento Republic at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–61–19
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sacramento Republic · On: K. Edwards · Off: F. Ajago
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Sacramento Republic win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
77′We said Sacramento Republic at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–14
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' El Paso Locomotive · On: Tony Alfaro · Off: K. Twumasi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' El Paso Locomotive · On: Z. Jones · Off: B. Farkarlun
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' El Paso Locomotive · On: N. Cardona · Off: A. Moreno
82′We said Sacramento Republic at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–81–9
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sacramento Republic · On: M. Kaye · Off: J. Casas
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sacramento Republic · On: B. Willey · Off: C. Jennings
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sacramento Republic win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' El Paso Locomotive · On: G. Diaz · Off: R. Ruiz
88′87′: M. Rodriguez on the scoresheet for Sacramento Republic, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–5–95
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' El Paso Locomotive 0–1 Sacramento Republic · M. Rodriguez
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Sacramento Republic win: 37% at kick-off, 95% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Sacramento Republic win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
89′We said Sacramento Republic at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Sacramento Republic win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' A. Ortiz · El Paso Locomotive
FTFULL TIME El Paso Locomotive 0–1 Sacramento Republic
FTEl Paso Locomotive 0–1 Sacramento Republic · Sacramento Republic win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sacramento Republic just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: El Paso Locomotive 36%, draw 27%, Sacramento Republic 37%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on El Paso Locomotive v Sacramento RepublicBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

El Paso Locomotive win36%

Draw27%

Sacramento Republic win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueSouthwest University Park

RefereeM. Thompson

Line-ups

El Paso Locomotive

Sacramento Republic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

El Paso Locomotive

Sacramento Republic

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · USL Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

El Paso Locomotive

Formation not confirmed

99 A. Romero

21 K. Twumasi

25 A. Ortiz

15 N. Dollenmayer

11 B. Farkarlun

30 R. Coronado

8 C. Sainte

12 R. Ruiz

19 A. Mendez

14 R. Rubin

10 A. Moreno

Coach · Junior Gonzalez

Substitutes

33 · R. Alphin

2 · N. Cardona

93 · Tony Alfaro

29 · K. Hoban

23 · G. Diaz

18 · A. Quezada

5 · D. Gomez

7 · Z. Jones

Sacramento Republic

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Vitiello

2 J. Gurr

5 J. Timmer

4 L. Desmond

22 M. Benitez

24 J. Casas

27 D. Crisostomo

8 M. Rodriguez

11 F. Ajago

7 M. Malango

26 C. Jennings

Coach · Neill Collins

Substitutes

31 · J. Randolph

6 · F. Kleemann

3 · R. Spaulding

18 · M. Kaye

15 · A. Essel

20 · B. Willey

19 · A. Midence

71 · K. Edwards

Our number · sacramento republic winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market37%

Us37%

~~Market~~37%

We make Sacramento Republic a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · El Paso Locomotive v Sacramento Republic~~1.21 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 50 v 45~~1 v 3

~~The market · Sacramento Republic win~~37% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sacramento Republic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
El Paso Locomotive win	36%	35%	+1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Sacramento Republic win	37%	37%	0
Over 2.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
El Paso Locomotive or draw	63%	63%	0
El Paso Locomotive clean sheet	30%	–	–
Sacramento Republic clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.9 10.9 6.6 2.7 1 10.7 12.7 7.8 3.2 2 6.4 7.7 4.7 3 2.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+El Paso Locomotive down, Sacramento Republic across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,552 USL Championship matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 349 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

El Paso Locomotive at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sacramento Republic away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for El Paso Locomotive, 1.23 for Sacramento Republic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAC 1–2 ELP · ELP 1–0 SAC · SAC 3–0 ELP · ELP 2–1 SAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 30 Aug

EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE

WWWDLW4–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC

WDWWDD1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	El Paso Locomotive	28	+12	50
2	New Mexico United	28	+11	49
3	Sacramento Republic	28	+12	45
4	Lexington	28	+16	44
5	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
6	Colorado Springs	28	+3	41
7	Orange County SC	28	−7	39
8	San Antonio	28	0	39
9	Phoenix Rising	28	−3	36
10	Las Vegas Lights	28	−4	36
11	Oakland Roots	28	−2	35
12	Monterey Bay	28	−20	21