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El Paso Locomotive v Orange County SC

El Paso Locomotive

2–1Full time

Orange County SC

USL Championship · SUN 11 OCT · Southwest University Park

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:35

El Paso Locomotive 2–1 Orange County SC EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said El Paso Locomotive win~~51%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.357

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.265

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said El Paso Locomotive win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: El Paso Locomotive was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
1′KICK-OFF El Paso Locomotive v Orange County SC
2′Much as we predicted: El Paso Locomotive was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' El Paso Locomotive
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Orange County SC
31′31′ and it is 1–0: A. Moreno on the scoresheet for El Paso Locomotive. 1–0 · 75–17–8
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' El Paso Locomotive 1–0 Orange County SC
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' El Paso Locomotive win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' El Paso Locomotive win: 51% at kick-off, 45% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' El Paso Locomotive win: 51% at kick-off, 45% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' El Paso Locomotive win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Romero · El Paso Locomotive
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' El Paso Locomotive win: 51% at kick-off, 45% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' El Paso Locomotive win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' El Paso Locomotive win: 51% at kick-off, 45% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' El Paso Locomotive win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' El Paso Locomotive 2–0 Orange County SC
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' El Paso Locomotive 2–0 Orange County SC · B. Farkarlun (assist E. Calvillo)
45′HALF-TIME El Paso Locomotive 2–0 Orange County SC
46′🟨 YELLOW · 43' N. Benalcazar · Orange County SC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' El Paso Locomotive · On: N. Dollenmayer · Off: Tony Alfaro
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' El Paso Locomotive · On: R. Rubin · Off: E. Calvillo
46′SECOND HALF El Paso Locomotive 2–0 Orange County SC
50′SUBSTITUTION · 48' Orange County SC · On: F. O'Brien · Off: N. Ciotta
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' El Paso Locomotive 2–1 Orange County SC
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' A. Mendez · El Paso Locomotive
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' El Paso Locomotive · On: Z. Jones · Off: R. Avila
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' El Paso Locomotive · On: N. Cardona · Off: B. Farkarlun
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' El Paso Locomotive · On: N. Cardona · Off: B. Farkarlun
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' El Paso Locomotive · On: D. Gomez · Off: A. Mendez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Orange County SC · On: J. Johnson · Off: R. Doghman
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' El Paso Locomotive
FTFULL TIME El Paso Locomotive 2–1 Orange County SC
FTEl Paso Locomotive 2–1 Orange County SC · El Paso Locomotive win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

El Paso Locomotive win51%

Draw23%

Orange County SC win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 02:00

Venue · Southwest University Park

Referee · C. Rodriguez

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

El Paso Locomotive

Formation not confirmed

99 A. Romero

21 K. Twumasi

8 C. Sainte

93 Tony Alfaro

12 R. Ruiz

30 R. Coronado

6 E. Calvillo

11 B. Farkarlun

19 A. Mendez

10 A. Moreno

13 R. Avila

Coach · Junior Gonzalez

Substitutes

33 · R. Alphin

2 · N. Cardona

15 · N. Dollenmayer

29 · K. Hoban

18 · A. Quezada

5 · D. Gomez

7 · Z. Jones

14 · R. Rubin

Orange County SC

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Rando

32 N. Ciotta

4 N. Benalcazar

15 T. Espy

23 R. Doghman

19 K. Partida

18 M. Palomino

11 L. MacKinnon

8 O. Sylla

10 C. Hegardt

12 Y. Bazini

Coach · Didier Crettenand

Substitutes

31 · T. Kadono

28 · F. O'Brien

25 · E. Solis

20 · M. Bunbury

14 · B. Cambridge

17 · J. Johnson

22 · A. Marinch

7 · S. Wathuta

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

El Paso Locomotive

Formation not confirmed

99 A. Romero

21 K. Twumasi

8 C. Sainte

93 Tony Alfaro

12 R. Ruiz

30 R. Coronado

6 E. Calvillo

11 B. Farkarlun

19 A. Mendez

10 A. Moreno

13 R. Avila

Coach · Junior Gonzalez

Substitutes

33 · R. Alphin

2 · N. Cardona

15 · N. Dollenmayer

29 · K. Hoban

18 · A. Quezada

5 · D. Gomez

7 · Z. Jones

14 · R. Rubin

Orange County SC

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Rando

32 N. Ciotta

4 N. Benalcazar

15 T. Espy

23 R. Doghman

19 K. Partida

18 M. Palomino

11 L. MacKinnon

8 O. Sylla

10 C. Hegardt

12 Y. Bazini

Coach · Didier Crettenand

Substitutes

31 · T. Kadono

28 · F. O'Brien

25 · E. Solis

20 · M. Bunbury

14 · B. Cambridge

17 · J. Johnson

22 · A. Marinch

7 · S. Wathuta

Our number · el paso locomotive winPublished 11 Oct 02:00

51% The market58%

Us51%

~~Market~~58%

We make El Paso Locomotive a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · el paso locomotive win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
El Paso Locomotive win	51%	58%	−7
Draw	23%	22%	0
Orange County SC win	26%	20%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	58%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	54%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	+1
El Paso Locomotive or draw	74%	80%	−6
El Paso Locomotive clean sheet	30%	–	–
Orange County SC clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.0 6.2 3.7 1 9.0 10.6 6.4 2.6 2 8.0 9.4 5.7 2.3 3 4.8 5.7 3.4 4 2.2 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+El Paso Locomotive down, Orange County SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,539 USL Championship matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 336 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 1.91 goals a meeting; 4 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

El Paso Locomotive at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Orange County SC away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for El Paso Locomotive, 1.21 for Orange County SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.91

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 11

~~Both scored~~3 of 11

~~Last meetings~~ORA 2–0 ELP · ORA 0–0 ELP · ELP 0–3 ORA · ELP 0–2 ORA

Form · last six in USL Championship

EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE

WWWWDL2–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

ORANGE COUNTY SC

DDLLWL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	+13	47
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	26	+21	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Lexington	28	+16	44
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
8	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
9	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
10	Hartford Athletic	26	+3	39
11	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
12	Rhode Island	26	+10	38
13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	+1	38
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
15	Louisville City	26	+1	37
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	28	−7	36
18	Indy Eleven	27	0	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	26	−12	24
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14