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El Paso Locomotive v New Mexico United
El Paso LocomotiveNew Mexico UnitedUSL Championship · SUN 25 OCT · Southwest University Park
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
El Paso Locomotive are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: El Paso Locomotive 43%, draw 24%, New Mexico United 33%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
El Paso Locomotive win43%New Mexico United win33%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00
RoundGroup stage
VenueSouthwest University Park
RefereeC. Radosav
Match timeline
All events
El Paso LocomotiveMINNew Mexico UnitedEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
El Paso Locomotive
New Mexico United
Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship
Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026 · USL ChampionshipPositions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 29 | +11 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 29 | +10 | 49 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make El Paso Locomotive a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive win | 43% | 53% | −10 |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 0 |
| New Mexico United win | 33% | 23% | +10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 38% | −5 |
| El Paso Locomotive or draw | 67% | 77% | −10 |
| El Paso Locomotive clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| New Mexico United clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept
EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE
NEW MEXICO UNITED
The table
2026 · USL Championship| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 29 | +11 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 29 | +10 | 49 |
| 3 |  Sacramento Republic | 29 | +13 | 48 |
| 4 |  Lexington | 29 | +18 | 47 |
| 5 |  Colorado Springs | 29 | +4 | 44 |
| 6 |  FC Tulsa | 29 | +5 | 43 |
| 7 |  San Antonio | 29 | +1 | 42 |
| 8 |  Phoenix Rising | 29 | −1 | 39 |
| 9 |  Orange County SC | 29 | −9 | 39 |
| 10 |  Oakland Roots | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 29 | −6 | 36 |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 29 | −21 | 21 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.