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Detroit City v Rhode Island

Detroit City

1–0Full time

Rhode Island

USL Championship · SUN 11 OCT · Keyworth Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:30

Detroit City 1–0 Rhode Island DETROIT CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Detroit City win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.536

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.520

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Detroit City win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Detroit City 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–28
1′KICK-OFF Detroit City v Rhode Island
2′Little has changed for our model: Detroit City 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–28
24′🟥 RED CARD · 24' C. Herrera · Detroit City
25′SUBSTITUTION · 24' Detroit City · On: C. Saldana · Off: M. Bryant Corrected
26′Detroit City are down to ten from 23′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 35–39–26
27′Detroit City are down to ten from 23′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 35–39–26
30′Little has changed for our model: Detroit City 40% before kick-off, 34% now. 0–0 · 34–40–25
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Detroit City win 34%)
31′Little has changed for our model: Detroit City 40% before kick-off, 34% now. 0–0 · 34–41–25
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Detroit City win 34%)
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Detroit City win 34%)
39′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Detroit City · On: A. Diouf · Off: K. Williams
45′🟨 YELLOW · 50' N. Scardina · Rhode Island
45′HALF-TIME Detroit City 0–0 Rhode Island
46′SECOND HALF Detroit City 0–0 Rhode Island
53′SECOND HALF Detroit City 0–0 Rhode Island
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' G. Stoneman · Rhode Island
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Detroit City 1–0 Rhode Island · D. Smith
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' A. Sanchez · Rhode Island
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' K. Yao · Rhode Island
64′🟨 YELLOW · 61' A. Sanchez · Rhode Island
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' K. Yao · Rhode Island
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Z. Herivaux · Rhode Island
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rhode Island · On: J. Kwizera · Off: A. Sanchez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rhode Island · On: Y. Tsukada · Off: G. Stoneman
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rhode Island · On: D. Rovira · Off: N. Scardina
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Rhode Island · On: N. Fuson · Off: Z. Herivaux
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Detroit City · On: A. Diop · Off: M. Rodriguez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Detroit City · On: C. Niang · Off: D. Smith
FTFULL TIME Detroit City 1–0 Rhode Island
FTDetroit City 1–0 Rhode Island · Detroit City win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Detroit City win40%

Draw31%

Rhode Island win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Keyworth Stadium

Referee · M. Kaleia

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Detroit City

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Herrera

12 M. Bryant

30 D. Amoo-Mensah

4 C. Montgomery

3 A. Stanley

15 A. Dalou

21 M. Rodriguez

22 K. Hernandez-Foster

14 H. Yamazaki

7 D. Smith

23 K. Williams

Coach · Danny Dichio

Substitutes

91 · C. Saldana

33 · T. Silva

6 · R. Williams

8 · A. Diop

10 · J. Cedeno

32 · A. Diouf

19 · C. Niang

Rhode Island

Formation not confirmed

1 Koke Vegas

5 G. Stoneman

24 K. Yao

15 F. Nodarse

3 A. Sanchez

22 N. Scardina

21 Z. Herivaux

18 O. Foyo

77 A. Shapiro-Thompson

8 Leo Afonso

37 S. Korzeniowski

Coach · Khano Smith

Substitutes

29 · J. Castro

2 · D. Rovira

16 · E. Klein

17 · J. Kwizera

14 · Y. Tsukada

27 · N. Pierre

11 · N. Fuson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Detroit City

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Herrera

12 M. Bryant

30 D. Amoo-Mensah

4 C. Montgomery

3 A. Stanley

15 A. Dalou

21 M. Rodriguez

22 K. Hernandez-Foster

14 H. Yamazaki

7 D. Smith

23 K. Williams

Coach · Danny Dichio

Substitutes

91 · C. Saldana

33 · T. Silva

6 · R. Williams

8 · A. Diop

10 · J. Cedeno

32 · A. Diouf

19 · C. Niang

Rhode Island

Formation not confirmed

1 Koke Vegas

5 G. Stoneman

24 K. Yao

15 F. Nodarse

3 A. Sanchez

22 N. Scardina

21 Z. Herivaux

18 O. Foyo

77 A. Shapiro-Thompson

8 Leo Afonso

37 S. Korzeniowski

Coach · Khano Smith

Substitutes

29 · J. Castro

2 · D. Rovira

16 · E. Klein

17 · J. Kwizera

14 · Y. Tsukada

27 · N. Pierre

11 · N. Fuson

Our number · detroit city winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Detroit City a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · detroit city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Detroit City win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Rhode Island win	28%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	30%	44%	−14
Both teams to score	37%	50%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	56%	68%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	13%	24%	−11
Detroit City or draw	72%	70%	+1
Detroit City clean sheet	43%	–	–
Rhode Island clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 15.1 12.6 5.3 1 15.9 13.0 5.5 2 8.4 7.0 2.9 3 3.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Detroit City down, Rhode Island across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,539 USL Championship matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 336 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.40 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Detroit City at home: 0.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rhode Island away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Detroit City, 0.84 for Rhode Island. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~RHO 0–0 DET · RHO 1–0 DET · DET 2–0 RHO · DET 1–1 RHO

Form · last six in USL Championship

DETROIT CITY

DLWDWW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

RHODE ISLAND

DWLLWW1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	+13	47
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	26	+21	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Lexington	28	+16	44
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
8	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
9	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
10	Hartford Athletic	26	+3	39
11	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
12	Rhode Island	26	+10	38
13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	+1	38
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
15	Louisville City	26	+1	37
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	28	−7	36
18	Indy Eleven	27	0	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	26	−12	24
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14