Colorado Springs v FC Tulsa prediction · USL Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Colorado SpringsDrawFC Tulsa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Colorado Springs 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colorado Springs are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colorado Springs 41%, draw 27%, FC Tulsa 32%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Colorado Springs v FC TulsaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Colorado Springs win41%

Draw27%

FC Tulsa win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueWeidner Field

RefereeR. Albuquerque

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colorado Springs

FC Tulsa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Colorado Springs	29	+4	44
6	FC Tulsa	29	+5	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colorado springs winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market59%

Us41%

~~Market~~59%

We make Colorado Springs a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colorado Springs v FC Tulsa~~1.30 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 44 v 43~~5 v 6

~~The market · Colorado Springs win~~59% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Colorado Springs win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colorado Springs win	41%	59%	−18
Draw	27%	23%	+4
FC Tulsa win	32%	18%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	44%	51%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−8
Colorado Springs or draw	68%	82%	−14
Colorado Springs clean sheet	33%	–	–
FC Tulsa clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.9 10.1 5.6 2.1 1 11.7 12.6 7.2 2.7 2 7.5 8.3 4.6 3 3.3 3.6 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colorado Springs down, FC Tulsa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,568 USL Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 365 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colorado Springs at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Tulsa away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Colorado Springs, 1.13 for FC Tulsa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FCT 1–2 COL · FCT 0–0 COL · FCT 3–0 COL · COL 2–0 FCT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept

COLORADO SPRINGS

WDDDDW2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

FC TULSA

DDWDDL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–4

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	El Paso Locomotive	29	+11	50
2	New Mexico United	29	+10	49
3	Sacramento Republic	29	+13	48
4	Lexington	29	+18	47
5	Colorado Springs	29	+4	44
6	FC Tulsa	29	+5	43
7	San Antonio	29	+1	42
8	Phoenix Rising	29	−1	39
9	Orange County SC	29	−9	39
10	Oakland Roots	29	0	38
11	Las Vegas Lights	29	−6	36
12	Monterey Bay	29	−21	21