Home › Football › USL Championship › Charleston Battery v Louisville City

Charleston Battery v Louisville City

Charleston Battery

0–2Full time

Louisville City

USL Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Patriots Point Soccer Complex

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Charleston Battery 0–2 Louisville City CHARLESTON BATTERY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Charleston Battery win~~52%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.856

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Charleston Battery win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Charleston Battery was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–26
1′KICK-OFF Charleston Battery v Louisville City
3′Much as we predicted: Charleston Battery was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–26
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' K. Lambert · Louisville City
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Charleston Battery 1–0 Louisville City · C. Allan
45′HALF-TIME Charleston Battery 1–0 Louisville City
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Charleston Battery 1–0 Louisville City
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Louisville City · On: A. Dia · Off: J. Morris
46′SECOND HALF Charleston Battery 0–0 Louisville City
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Charleston Battery 0–1 Louisville City · J. Wilson
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Charleston Battery · On: L. Kissiedou · Off: C. Allan
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Charleston Battery · On: N. Messer · Off: N. Houssou
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Louisville City · On: Z. Duncan · Off: B. Niang
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Louisville City · On: S. Gleadle · Off: C. Donovan
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Charleston Battery · On: C. Swan · Off: C. A. Sanchez Gonzalez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Charleston Battery · On: L. Blackstock · Off: M. Foster
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Louisville City · On: R. Serrano · Off: J. Wilson
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Louisville City · On: S. Totsch · Off: E. Perez
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Charleston Battery · On: G. Smith · Off: D. Martinez
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Charleston Battery 0–2 Louisville City · M. Akale
FTCharleston Battery 0–2 Louisville City · Charleston Battery win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Charleston Battery win52%

Draw21%

Louisville City win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 23:00

Venue · Patriots Point Soccer Complex

Referee · G. Flores

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Charleston Battery

Formation not confirmed

56 L. Zamudio

42 D. Martinez

5 S. Suber

22 J. Akpunonu

91 N. Houssou

8 E. Ycaza

4 C. Allan

99 M. Foster

90 M. Berry

29 J. Kelly

9 C. A. Sanchez Gonzalez

Coach · Ben Pirmann

Substitutes

1 · J. Berner

16 · G. Smith

10 · L. Kissiedou

88 · K. Pakhomov

3 · N. Messer

7 · L. Blackstock

30 · C. Swan

Louisville City

Formation not confirmed

29 R. Schewe

2 A. McFadden

31 K. Lambert

32 K. Adams

15 E. Perez

8 T. Davila

19 B. Niang

3 J. Morris

47 M. Akale

9 C. Donovan

25 J. Wilson

Coach · Simon Bird

Substitutes

30 · R. Troutman

13 · A. Dia

4 · S. Totsch

23 · S. Gleadle

5 · B. Dayes

27 · E. Davila

6 · Z. Duncan

7 · R. Serrano

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Charleston Battery

Formation not confirmed

56 L. Zamudio

42 D. Martinez

5 S. Suber

22 J. Akpunonu

91 N. Houssou

8 E. Ycaza

4 C. Allan

99 M. Foster

90 M. Berry

29 J. Kelly

9 C. A. Sanchez Gonzalez

Coach · Ben Pirmann

Substitutes

1 · J. Berner

16 · G. Smith

10 · L. Kissiedou

88 · K. Pakhomov

3 · N. Messer

7 · L. Blackstock

30 · C. Swan

Louisville City

Formation not confirmed

29 R. Schewe

2 A. McFadden

31 K. Lambert

32 K. Adams

15 E. Perez

8 T. Davila

19 B. Niang

3 J. Morris

47 M. Akale

9 C. Donovan

25 J. Wilson

Coach · Simon Bird

Substitutes

30 · R. Troutman

13 · A. Dia

4 · S. Totsch

23 · S. Gleadle

5 · B. Dayes

27 · E. Davila

6 · Z. Duncan

7 · R. Serrano

Our number · charleston battery winPublished 10 Oct 22:52

52% The market44%

Us52%

~~Market~~44%

We make Charleston Battery a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · charleston battery win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Charleston Battery win	52%	44%	+8
Draw	21%	26%	−5
Louisville City win	27%	29%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	66%	55%	+11
Both teams to score	64%	59%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	85%	77%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	44%	35%	+9
Charleston Battery or draw	73%	71%	+3
Charleston Battery clean sheet	25%	–	–
Louisville City clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.4 4.8 3.3 1 6.9 9.2 6.4 3.0 2 6.8 9.2 6.3 2.9 3 4.5 6.1 4.2 4 2.3 3.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Charleston Battery down, Louisville City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,539 USL Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.7% of games this season, across 336 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Charleston Battery at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Louisville City away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Charleston Battery, 1.38 for Louisville City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LOU 0–2 CHA · LOU 4–1 CHA · CHA 1–2 LOU · LOU 3–1 CHA

Form · last six in USL Championship

CHARLESTON BATTERY

WWLDWW5–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

LOUISVILLE CITY

LDDLWD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	27	+21	52
2	Detroit City	27	+13	47
3	El Paso Locomotive	27	+11	47
4	Charleston Battery	26	+21	46
5	New Mexico United	27	+9	46
6	Lexington	28	+16	44
7	Sacramento Republic	27	+12	44
8	FC Tulsa	28	+7	43
9	Colorado Springs	27	+3	40
10	Hartford Athletic	26	+3	39
11	Orange County SC	27	−6	39
12	Rhode Island	26	+10	38
13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	+1	38
14	San Antonio	27	0	38
15	Louisville City	26	+1	37
16	Las Vegas Lights	27	−3	36
17	Miami FC	28	−7	36
18	Indy Eleven	27	0	34
19	Oakland Roots	27	−2	34
20	Phoenix Rising	27	−4	33
21	Loudoun United	26	−12	24
22	Birmingham Legion	26	−7	23
23	Monterey Bay	27	−18	21
24	Brooklyn	27	−28	18
25	Sporting JAX	27	−41	14